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231. Defensive lawfare and deterrence: Analysis of Latvia’s approach to legal bases in the context of hybrid warfare (2014-2022)

Author:
Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Following the ‘hybrid form’ of Russian aggression in Ukraine that emerged in 2014, the period after February 24th, 2022 is referred to as the ‘new reality’. Hence, the question that needs to be addressed is how to deter and prevent Russian aggression of this kind. The national legal framework against the aggressor is a part of the deterrence policy and can be construed as defensive lawfare. Focusing on Latvia, the aim of the paper is to analyse defensive lawfare and deterrence in the context of hybrid warfare. The following research question has been identified: What is Latvia’s approach to establishing defensive lawfare in terms of hybrid warfare? For the empirical analysis, the chronological framework has been set from 2014 to 2022. To complete the empirical analysis of the present paper, both qualitative and quantitative research has been implemented comprising document analysis and semi-structured interviews, as well as content analysis, respectively. The improvement of a regulatory base and the development of deterrence, whilst using regulatory acts, is an element of deterrence and a way to act legally. The law can be used as a weapon. Lawfare, a concept with three definitions, has two forms: defensive a nd offensive. Latvia’s legal base includes a regulation to overcome hybrid threats and to implement a broad-spectrum of defence measures. Latvia’s regulatory framework is designed for defence purposes, whilst also being a way of promoting deterrence. Decision makers must be able to manoeuvre with the powers assigned to them.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Hybrid Warfare, Lawfare, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Latvia, and Baltic States

232. Logistics outsourcing for armed forces: The mobilisation of civilian transportation vehicles

Author:
Nebojsa V. Nikolic
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
One aspect of the total defence concept involves the temporary requisition of civilian transportation vehicles to meet the increased logistical demands of a wartime army. These vehicles are selected and managed in peacetime, mobilised at the onset of the war, used by military units throughout the war, and returned to their original owners afterwards. This paper presents a model for the reception process of such civilian vehicles during mobilisation. In practice, however, reception processes are not without challenges. Under the time constraints of mobilisation, issues may arise, including inappropriate reception, missed deadlines, and compromised operational readiness. To investigate these issues, the study employs conceptual modelling, supplemented by insights from professional experience. The main contributions of this paper include a conceptual model of the mobilisation process, a framework for maintaining records of mobilised assets, and a focus on previously underexplored mobilisation issues. Proper reception of mobilised vehicles significantly affects the transportation capability and operational readiness of military units as well as the accuracy of the post-conflict return process. Implementation of the proposed solutions requires careful consideration due to interdependencies with other aspects of the mobilisation process, such as doctrinal arrangements, administrative systems, mobilisation procedures as well as the quality and regularity of both professional and reservist military training.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Service, Logistics, Outsourcing, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

233. Conventional and Hybrid Actions in the Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Craisor-Constantin Ionita
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The paper aims to analytically present the existing data and information regarding notable aspects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, notably through lessons identified in the political-military field, both conventionally and hybrid. The article hypothesis starts from the consideration that even the war is not over, there are some lessons identified that should be considered for the future security of Europe and the international environment. The author uses the analytical method of research to explain the cause-effect relationship between the war itself and its future influence for the European security and world order, going down to European nations living at the edge of this conflict. It will also theoretically test those implications to determine whether they fit the specified hypothesis. The conflict itself has deepened the international consequences of almost two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. It magnified the disastrous security situation not only in Europe, but all around the world, by creating additional energy (gas) and food (cereal) crises. Therefore, the Russian – Ukrainian War has significantly modified regional and international security environment and there are tendencies to challenge the current World order. What happened in Ukraine in the past year has and will continue to have direct implications for the European and Euro-Atlantic security, going down to European nations living at the edge of this conflict. Therefore, this paper is significant for advising the political-military decision-makers on better understanding the modern operational environment and addapting future defence capabilities to face 21st Century Warfare.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

234. Naval rearmament, European perspectives

Author:
Nicolas Mazzucchi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The increase in international crises, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the continuing rhetoric of future Sino-American confrontation in the Indo-Pacific, are resulting in a period of profound geopolitical upheaval, with rising maritime and naval challenges. Several trends are thus interlinked, between the strengthening of the transatlantic nexus, the continuous increase in the importance of the Indo-Pacific and the wish for strategic rebalancing on the part of the countries of the South. Faced with these multiple challenges, underscored by an unprecedented trend in naval rearmament, the European Union is seeking a new strategic-military balance at sea. Between the strengthening of the European Union-NATO link, the resolve of member states to invest more in their naval assets and the need to work to defend and enforce respect for international law, the European Union must show determination and also support this effort to rearm. The various institutional frameworks, as well as cooperation formats, have meant that defence equipment projects have been developed in a more flexible way in recent years, notably with the progressive maturity of the European Defence Fund. Interoperability, joint operations and new capabilities are needed jointly, so that Europe can continue to play its part in the global naval game.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Navy, Maritime, Crisis Management, and Armament
Political Geography:
Europe

235. Governing the Ocean

Author:
Christophe Prazuck
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The sea is a far away place, so immense as to be abstract: you don't live there, you don't vote there, you don't own private property there. Understanding its importance, its link with our daily lives, understanding Fernand Braudel's phrase "the sea is wealth", is not the result of instinct, of familiarity with a land, it is always the result of an intellectual construction. It is perhaps tinged with fascination too, for poets and novelists, for walkers along the "Sentier des Douaniers" in a strong westerly breeze. Doubling as wonder, certainly, for the scientists who unlock the splendours of marine biology (the appearance of life in the primordial soup, the creation of an oxygenated atmosphere by unicellular algae, the key to nerve impulses discovered in the eye of a squid, etc.) or who examine the immeasurable power of the mechanisms and chemistry of the ocean, such as the meandering Gulf Stream, whose flow is greater than that of all the rivers on earth combined, or the quantity of heat retained in the first three metres of the ocean, which is greater than that contained in the entire atmosphere. But if the European Union, this maritime giant in the making, is taking an interest in ocean issues, and if the United Nations has made this decade that of the ocean sciences for sustainable development, it is because the ocean's state of health, our knowledge of it and the efficacy of our governance, will determine a part of our future. Indeed, the ocean is at the crossroads of a number of decisive pathways. Firstly, the path of climate change, since the ocean mitigates this as it absorbs 25% of the carbon dioxide[1] we emit and 90% of the excess heat generated by the greenhouse effect[2]. In the process, it is changing, warming, expanding, acidifying and 'deoxygenating': as its ecosystems are affected, it will probably lose some of its effectiveness as a climate shield. Secondly, the path of biodiversity which is under the threat of the combined effects of climate, marine pollution and over-exploitation, the disruption of which could affect the hundreds of millions of humans who depend on fish stocks, and lead to the disappearance forever of the biological treasures forged by evolution, which teach us about life and its development as well as our own physiology, our own pathologies and, sometimes, their remedies. Thirdly, the coastal pathway, where low-lying areas will be home to a billion human beings by 2050, while sea levels will rise, encroaching on coastal areas and amplifying the impact of extreme weather phenomena. Fourthly, the economic path which places the ocean at the centre of all our commercial and digital exchanges, globalisation being first and foremost a maritimisation of the world. Finally, the trajectory of power, which uses the seas as a stage for competition for global or regional hegemony.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Governance, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Global Focus

236. China’s Future Military Capabilities

Author:
Roger Cliff
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. This monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Strategic Planning, Future, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

237. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Full-Scale War to Conflict Resolution and Post-War Recovery

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, Makysm Bielawski, V. Zamiatin, and Oleksiy Melnyk
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
For 570 days, Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war against the russian aggressor, defending its freedom, independence and very right to exist. During this time, our country has suffered losses and destruction on a scale unimaginable on the European continent after the World War II. Towns and villages wrecked to the ground, tens of thousands dead, artificially created environmental disasters and constant nuclear blackmail, the deportation of Ukrainian children – an outright act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, systematic destruction of the country’s energy, transport and agricultural infrastructure, the war against the civilian population, the war-induced migration and demographic crisis are just a few points in the long list of disasters caused by russian aggression.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

238. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)

Author:
M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

239. The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis

Author:
Gregory Weaver
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The potential for a conflict over Taiwan is increasing due to China’s nuclear and conventional military buildup and the threat of two simultaneous conflicts with China and Russia, which would severely stress the ability of US and allied conventional forces to win in both theaters. Nuclear weapons will cast a long shadow over a Taiwan conflict and could play multiple roles in the deterrence and warfighting strategies and operations of both the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A conflict over Taiwan has a number of attributes that will shape those roles. Those attributes make the potential for limited nuclear escalation real and uncontrolled nuclear escalation possible. In order to prevent war and escalation in war, US policymakers and military planners must take the role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan conflict seriously. The United States should communicate four focused deterrent messages to China and reassure its allies and partners that it can deter Chinese nuclear use. The United States should reevaluate its theater nuclear capability requirements for a Taiwan conflict and carefully analyze options to defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan with limited nuclear strikes if necessary. Finally, the United States must credibly address the potential for collaborative or opportunistic aggression by China and Russia in an environment in which both are peer nuclear adversaries. This requires determining what the US strategy should be to address the two-peer threat, optimizing US and allied conventional forces to address it, and reshaping US nuclear capabilities if necessary. The United States needs to know now whether it is going to require a nuclear force that is larger, or different, or both, because changing the current modernization program requires immediate action to address the threats in time.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Conflict, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

240. NATO and strategic competition: Time for Allies to step up

Author:
Mark Webber
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
2022 was marked by the publication of a string of high-level strategy documents by the NATO allies: the National Defense Strategy (NDS) in the United States, the National Strategic Review in France, the Dutch Defense White Paper, and the Danish Foreign and Security Policy Strategy. In January 2023, Estonia updated its National Security Concept. A refresh of the UK’s 2021 Integrated Review is due in the spring of 2023. Germany’s first post-Cold War National Security Strategy is expected to be published around the same time. These documents all share a preoccupation with what NATO’s own 2022 Strategic Concept has referred to as “rising strategic competition” in a “contested and unpredictable” world.1 This strategic convergence indicates a strengthening of solidarity in view of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Chinese efforts to extend its global footprint. How NATO responds over the long haul will be shaped by American priorities. The United States, former German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht, noted in January 2023, “may not be able to guarantee the defense of Europe to the extent that it used to” as it turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific region. “[W]e Europeans”, would in consequence, need to do more to generate “military strength”.2 This is not a fringe opinion. German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have argued essentially the same.3 Actions, of course, speak louder than words. This Policy Brief shows that European commitment is still lagging. In view of the urgency of the challenge, greater effort and prioritization are required.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America