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71. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

72. Morocco Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the pandemic hit Morocco in March 2020, the country has been facing crises on multiple fronts, including the public health crisis, the economic crisis, inflation, and the historic drought. Internationally, Morocco made several diplomatic gains in the wake of the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In an historic reversal of its previous stance, Spain declared that the Moroccan autonomy plan is “the most serious, realistic and credible” solution to the crisis. Multiple other countries opened consulates in Western Sahara.1 2 Moroccans express a great deal of awareness towards these crises, and many recognize the impacts on their daily lives. Nonetheless, not all Moroccans view the current situation in the country through a similar lens. As opposed to the 2018 fifth wave of Arab Barometer surveys where Moroccans were often divided in their views by age, it appears that the effect of these recent events has been to divide Moroccans by socio-economic status to a greater extent. Often, wealthier and more educated Moroccans have a different outlook on the country than those whose income cannot cover their expenses and those with only a high school education or less. The former have a better outlook on Morocco. They express more economic safety and are less likely to be critical of the current situation in their country. The latter are a bit more skeptical, instead expressing more economic frustration and are more willing to criticize many aspects of life in the North African kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

73. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

74. Palestine Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
These are the results of the 7th wave of the Arab Barometer in Palestine. Data collection was conducted during the period of 14 and 23 October 2021 in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. All interviews were conducted face to face among a representative sample of the adult population, 18 years and above. The poll covers a variety of issues such as economic conditions, democracy and governance, satisfaction with government and other public institutions, emigration, religious practices, gender, education, media, coronavirus, and international and regional matters. Findings show that the economic situation and the coronavirus are the top two concerns of the public. When asked about the most important challenges facing Palestine today, the largest percentage selected “the economic situation, such as poverty, unemployment and inflation,” followed by the spread of the coronavirus, financial and administrative corruption, and internal instability and security. It is worth noting that respondents in most of the Arab countries covered by AB 7 selected the economic situation and the coronavirus crisis as the two most important challenges facing their countries. When asked to evaluate the current economic situation in Palestine, the vast majority said it is bad or very bad. When asked to speculate about how the economic situation will be in the next few years, less than a third said it will be much better or somewhat better.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Health, Democracy, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

75. Mauritania Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Between November 2021 and January 2022, Arab Barometer conducted its first-ever nationally-representative public opinion survey in Mauritania. The survey was part of Arab Barometer’s Seventh Wave which included surveys in 12 countries across the Middle East and North Africa. The two-month fielding period in Mauritania coincided with the spread of the Omicron variable of COVID19, leading to the highest percentages of infections recorded in the country. Therefore, it was no surprise that the absolute majority of Mauritanians expressed concern over the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic, however, ranked second on the list of challenges facing the country, with the economy being the most important challenge for Mauritania. Furthermore, the pandemic is thought to have caused several challenges, chief among which is inflation and other economy-related issues. Mauritanians, however, recognized the government’s efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19 and to provide security and order in the country. Trust in the Mauritanian government was high as compared to other countries. Yet, people were clearly dissatisfied with public services and the government’s performance on the economic front. The harsh economic conditions had taken their toll on the livelihoods of Mauritanians, with large percentages of people suffering from food insecurity recently. These conditions are further exacerbated by the widespread corruption within the state apparatus. Climate change had contributed to making matters worse with the country experiencing its most severe drought in decades. Despite the hardship, Mauritanians were amongst the region’s least likely people to want to emigrate. Only a small minority had expressed a desire to leave the country, with the economy being the main driver behind that desire. When it comes to views on international relations, Mauritanians had shown clear toward Muslim-majority powers, namely Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with both the two states and their leaders being the favorites among regional and international powers. The opposite is true for France and Russia, the leader of which is the least popular leader among his counterparts in Mauritania.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Economy, COVID-19, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Mauritania

76. How Anticorruption Actors Can Use the EITI Standard

Author:
Charlotte Boyer and Matthieu Salomon
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In June 2023, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) adopted the 2023 EITI Standard, which introduced significant new requirements that are either mandatory, expected or encouraged for implementing countries and companies, compared to the 2019 Standard In particular, the Standard now includes several obligations aimed at bringing more information into the public domain to advance gender equality, a just energy transition and anticorruption efforts. In 2021, building on an EITI-commissioned paper on the role of the EITI in fighting corruption, NRGI published two reports which showed how anticorruption actors could use EITI disclosures and spaces to advance their work, and recommended ways to strengthen the role and potential of the EITI for anticorruption purposes. In this new guide, NRGI updates its guidance for anticorruption actors—such as civil society, journalists, EITI Multi-Stakeholder Groups (MSGs) and government enforcement agencies—by outlining how the innovations of the 2023 Standard may help advance their efforts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Stakeholders, Extractive Industries, and Standards
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Anticorruption Reform: Learning From Experience Across Sectors

Author:
Tom Shipley
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Even armed with a thorough approach for diagnosing corruption risk, anticorruption reformers may struggle to decide on next steps. Solutions to corruption problems do not always readily present themselves. The politicized nature of the issues also means generating real momentum behind reform can seem daunting. To help reformers with these choices, this NRGI briefing brings together eight case studies from other sectors. Cases were selected where positive changes can be demonstrated, even if the reform process is often incomplete. NRGI and the author also selected reforms which have potential replicability in the extractives sector, while recognizing that the details will look different. The case examples are organized by reform categories, as shown in the table below. The briefing presents a short summary of each case and provides links to further materials, as well as accurate and up-to-date a summary as possible in each case, with the caveat that circumstances frequently change in anticorruption work. The briefing concludes with five lessons on anticorruption reform which can be drawn from across these cases. The aim is to show what can be achieved and support users of the diagnostic tool to learn from experiences outside the extractives sector. The tool provides guidance to multi-stakeholder groups to identify forms of corruption harming a country’s extractive sector. Developing an anticorruption action plan is the sixth step in the tool and a key outcome of the diagnostic process. The action plan should follow from a broader discussion on strategy, through which users make choices on the issues to tackle, the people and agencies to engage, and how to brand reforms (see section 6.1. in the diagnostic tool, “Strategizing”). To ensure the action plan provides a sound basis for reform, users of the tool should apply the following key principles: Engage all relevant stakeholders throughout the action planning process to secure buy-in for reforms. Set clear and specific objectives which balance feasibility and ambition. Ensure clear ownership and incentives, and lines of responsibility for actions. Set clear indicators and conduct regular monitoring to assess progress. Build in flexibility and be prepared to adapt plans to changes in the context. The diagnostic tool includes templates and guidance for users when developing an action plan.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Make Russia Pay: The Case for Seizing Russia’s Sovereign Assets

Author:
Nate Sibley
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The United States, the European Union, and their international partners acted swiftly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, imposing sanctions on more than $300 billion of Russian sovereign assets. As the war enters its third year, more individuals and organizations are calling on the US and its partners to confiscate these frozen funds and repurpose them for Ukraine’s assistance and reconstruction needs. The cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction is currently estimated at around $400 billion, though this number increases daily with every new act of Russian destruction. After initial hesitation within the Biden administration and among its G7 partners, support for this proposal is reportedly growing—especially as further assistance for Ukraine encounters headwinds in the divided US Congress. Below are some key takeaways from a recent Hudson Institute discussion with Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, on making Russia pay for its crimes against Ukraine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Sovereign Assets
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

79. Addressing Implementation Challenges of the Excisable Goods Management System in Kenya: A Pathway to Curtailing Illicit Tobacco Trade

Author:
African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Excisable Goods Management System (EGMS) introduced by the Kenyan government in 2013 to combat the illicit trade in tobacco products is facing enormous challenges that are hampering its implementation. Although in 2014 the EGMS led to a reduction in undeclared production volumes and a potential substitution of illicit tobacco with licit tobacco, the system's effectiveness is limited by factors such as corruption, the complexity of the system and increased costs for small businesses. Based on these findings, the government and relevant agencies should take steps to raise consumer awareness of the EGMS and support small businesses.
Topic:
Corruption, Regulation, Economy, Trade, Tobacco, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

80. Containing Tariff Evasion*

Author:
Clément Anne, Cyril Chalendard, Ana Fernandes, Bob Rijkers, and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
To identify transactions at risk of tariff evasion, this paper matches export transaction data from France with import transaction data from Madagascar using container identifiers. Reporting discrepancies between exporters and importers are prevalent but small, with over two-fifths of importers reporting in a way that increases their tariff liability. Yet, aggregate tariff revenues are 24 percent lower due to discrepancies. These revenue losses are highly concentrated: the top five evaders account for three-quarters of all tariff revenue losses and larger shipments are more at risk of evasion. Tariff enforcement in Madagascar is ineffective and only marginally mitigates revenue losses.
Topic:
Corruption, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, Imports, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Africa, Madagascar, and Global Focus