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11. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

12. Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, Just War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

13. A Blue Economy in the Eastern Mediterranean: Climate, Society and Regional Prosperity

Author:
Hadas Gann-Perkal
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper examines the differences between a blue economy and a maritime economy in the regional context of the Eastern Mediterranean. A blue economy is defined as one that improves human well-being by preserving environmental resources for future generations. Its environmental, climatic and social aspects are intertwined and interdependent. By contrast, a maritime economy is solely driven by profit motives. Two key understandings guide the discussion presented in this paper. The first is that the close connection, and even dependence of human welfare on healthy seas necessitates management of the marine environment so that it both supports economic prosperity and preserves the natural system needed for sustainable living. The second is that adopting the blue economy paradigm as an approach that inherently requires regional cooperation will enable wise implementation and full realization of blue economy advantages, perhaps even before each country fully and independently adopts the approach. The paper examines various blue economy sectors that lend themselves to implementation of a sustainable and regional blue economy paradigm, with a focus on ecotourism and nature conservation. It also proposes guiding principles and policy recommendations to promote the transition from a maritime economy to a regional blue economy. Adopting this blue economy approach bodes a promise of regional prosperity and resilience, as well as water, food and energy security in times of climate crisis and other environmental threats. It also offers hope as a framework for conflict resolution and regional peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peacebuilding, Blue Economy, Energy Security, and Climate Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

14. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

15. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia

16. Paths to a Ceasefire in Ukraine: America Must Take the Lead

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Barring an improbable complete victory for Ukraine or Russia, the conflict in Ukraine will end, or more likely be suspended, in the form of a compromise. The fighting is therefore now essentially about the geographical and political lines along which this compromise will be drawn. These will become much clearer once the results of the forthcoming Ukrainian counter–offensive are known, and the aftermath of the offensive will be the time for an intensive diplomatic effort to bring about a ceasefire. Ideally, this compromise should take the form of a peace settlement like Northern Ireland’s in 1999, that would end the war and allow the creation of a stable, consensual and peaceful security order in Europe. More likely, however, is a ceasefire that (as in the cases of Kashmir, Korea, and Cyprus) will freeze the existing battle–line, wherever that runs. Such a ceasefire will in any case be necessary if talks aimed at a formal peace settlement are to take place; and even if such a treaty cannot be reached, such a ceasefire, if far from ideal, might still prove reasonably stable and permanent. Both the U.S. and Ukrainian administrations stated after it began that the war would inevitably end in a negotiated peace. In the first month of the war President Volodymyr Zelensky put forward peace proposals that included suspending the issues of Crimea and the eastern Donbas for future negotiation. Since then, however, both Ukraine and Russia have adopted positions that make any agreement between them exceptionally difficult. Given these circumstances, the United States must play the greatest role in achieving a ceasefire.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Engagement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

17. Is There a Way Forward for Political Resolution in Yemen?

Author:
Fatima Abo Alasrar and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Director of MEI's Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to MEI Non-Resident Scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar & Ibrahim Jalal on a host of current events in Yemen. What have been the takeaways from U.S. Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking's recent visit to the country - and what are the current trends in the Saudi-Houthi dialogue?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Politics, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

18. Diplomacy and the War against Ukraine

Author:
Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Normally, diplomacy is meant as the set of rules and processes that preside over international relations to prevent or resolve disputes and conflicts, or even as a special skill in dealing with complex issues and finding compromises. If this is the case, one may be tempted to conclude that diplomacy has so far failed with respect to the year-long conflict in Ukraine. But perhaps it is worth analysing the issue more closely.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

19. Working Toward Peaceful Relations between Oromia and Somali Regional States, Ethiopia: Policy Options

Author:
Ketema Debela
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly faced violent conflicts which are intergovernmental, interparty, and interethnic in nature. In this regard, the conflict between Oromia and Somali regional states, which used to be local and confined to border areas prior to 2017, expanded its scale from local to the regional level, from clan to ethnic level. By drawing on research about intergovernmental conflict resolution and peacebuilding between Oromia and the Somali Regional State, this policy brief identifies the root causes of conflict along the borderlands between Oromo and Somali, examines the effectiveness of the measures taken to address the conflict, and recommends key areas for policy interventions to resolve the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia, and Somali Regional State

20. The Role of the Judiciary in the Resolution of Intra-Party Conflicts in Lesotho

Author:
Mamello Rakolobe and Hoolo 'Nyane
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Political parties play an integral role in modern democracies and are legitimate platforms of contestation for state power. Despite the vital role that political parties play in democratisation, they are often prone to internal disputes. Their internal processes, such as conferences, elections, decision-making and deployments, are often subject to contestation. Conflicts are inherent in political contestation in general and in political parties, in particular. Hence, political parties have several mechanisms for dispute resolution, one of which is the referral of disputes to the courts of law. The role of the courts in internal political party disputes is a double-edged sword. While a court provides an independent platform for resolving disputes, it lacks reconciliatory attributes. After court intervention, many political parties often break up into smaller parties or experience major defections. This phenomenon is more pronounced in Lesotho than elsewhere. Ever since the return to electoral democracy in 1993, the role of the courts in internal party disputes has increased phenomenally. However, instead of achieving cohesion and internal stability, political parties have experienced splits, exacerbated conflicts or significant defections after the referral of their internal disputes to the courts. This raises the question of whether the courts are the appropriate mechanism for resolving internal political conflicts. This article investigates this question.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Elections, Democracy, Violence, Judiciary, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho