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11. Mass Atrocity Crimes Against Women and Girls in Afghanistan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Afghanistan has consistently ranked among the ten highest-risk countries for a new onset of mass killing1 in the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s annual Statistical Risk Assessment. 2 Since 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, many communities face a heightened risk of targeted violence. In 2021, the Museum’s Simon Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide issued warnings of potential mass atrocities against women and girls3 and the risk of genocide against the Hazara community.4 The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) have collaborated on a series of convenings on the risks to civilians in Afghanistan and potential international responses to halt and prevent the Taliban’s crimes and advance accountability for the victims. In January 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and USIP co-hosted a private roundtable discussion on mass atrocity crimes committed against women and girls by the Taliban. The conversation was held in recognition that crimes perpetrated against women and girls, while too often neglected, are often mass atrocities and require a coordinated response from the international community. The convening included researchers, policymakers, activists, legal experts, and other civil society representatives, who discussed the following questions: • What information has been collected about crimes targeting women and girls in Afghanistan, and what patterns emerge from this documentation? • How and why has gender persecution become a focus of investigative efforts? • What are the consequences of the Taliban’s persecution of women and girls? • How can the Taliban be held accountable for their crimes against women and girls? • What topics need further exploration? • What are recommendations for actions that can be undertaken in the coming year to address the Taliban’s crimes against women and girls? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
Topic:
Taliban, Women, Atrocities, Girls, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

12. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:
Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

13. Holding the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable for atrocity crimes

Author:
Celeste Kmiotek, Alana Mitias, and Nushin Sarkarati
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With little to no prospect for accountability within Iran’s domestic courts, victims and survivors of serious violations of international law are turning toward an increasing number of foreign jurisdictions—most commonly in Europe and North America, but also in Latin America, Africa, and other regions—to pursue justice for human rights violations carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, certain domestic justice systems allow prosecutions in national courts for crimes committed abroad, regardless of the victim’s or perpetrator’s nationality. Universal jurisdiction stems from the concept that certain crimes are of such gravity that they harm the international community as a whole, so national courts outside the country where the violations took place may prosecute them to protect the international order. Although the crimes subject to universal jurisdiction provisions differ by state, they generally include crimes against humanity, torture, war crimes, and genocide. Limitations on universal jurisdiction also vary between states, however, as do the processes for filing complaints and procedures for investigations, trials, and appeals. As was shown by the trial and conviction of Hamid Noury in Sweden for his involvement in the massacre of Iranian political prisoners in 1988, national prosecutions of international crimes can be a fruitful avenue to justice for victims of the Islamic Republic. To this end, the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project has compiled a guide to aid practitioners and independent investigators in navigating the legal systems of European states with the highest likelihood of prosecuting Iranian human rights violators. Focusing on five states—France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland—this manual outlines the crimes and violations subject to universal jurisdiction, best practices for investigating and documenting crimes, and processes for requesting investigations and participating in prosecutions as a victim, witness, or NGO. For information that is beyond the scope of this manual, the annex includes printed resources to consult and organizations to contact for additional assistance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Rule of Law, Accountability, Norms, Atrocities, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

14. A Way Forward for Justice and Accountability in Ethiopia

Author:
Stephen Rapp, Andrea Gittleman, and Danica Damplo
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This paper proposes a way forward for those who support justice and accountability for mass atrocities in Ethiopia. These options are posed in a rapidly changing policy environment: in the past year Ethiopia was invited to join the BRICS group of nations; countries are seeking to normalize relations with the Ethiopian government after the conflict in Tigray; and brutal conflicts in Sudan and elsewhere have focused international attention away from the situation in Ethiopia. The proposals below list available options which should be seriously considered by policymakers who want to properly address crimes of the past and develop strategies that mitigate ongoing mass atrocity risks to civilians in Ethiopia.
Topic:
Accountability, Justice, Atrocities, Crimes Against Humanity, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

15. Punishing Atrocities and Fair Trials: From Nuremberg to Global Terrorism w/Prof. Jonathan Hafetz

Author:
Jonathan Hafetz
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Prosecuting individuals who commit mass crimes is an important duty of states. Since World War II, an increasingly elaborate domestic and international legal framework has emerged for trying and punishing atrocities. But it is important that the rights of the accused are protected in the process. This lecture will examine the challenge of ensuring fair trials, with particular attention on the long shadow cast by the U.S. War on Terrorism, which continues to reverberate across Arab and Muslim communities today.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Terrorism, History, War on Terror, and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Analyzing the implications of the Gaza war for Israeli-Turkish ties

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ramifications of the war in Gaza have led to a significant downturn in the ties bеtwееn Turkey and Israel. President Rеcеp Tayyip Erdogan's remarks, in a spееch to his AK Party’s lawmakers in parliament on November 16, 2023, branding Israel as a "terrorist state'' and accusing it of perpetrating atrocities against Palestinians have bееn pivotal in escalating tensions between both countries. He further stated that all those supporting Israel’s war on Palestinians were complicit in all Israeli massacres.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Atrocities, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

17. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:
Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

18. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation

Author:
Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
Topic:
Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

19. Immediate Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
South Sudanese civilians face a risk of mass atrocities from government forces, armed militia, and opposition groups as political instability at the national level increases. Impunity has fostered a culture in which the commission of mass atrocity crimes is normalized. In the leadup to the 2023 elections, President Salva Kiir could lead violent crackdowns on organized gatherings in an effort to silence opposition. If government and opposition forces continue to unify into a single army, infighting could spill over into violence against and among civilian groups.
Topic:
Impunity, Violence, Atrocities, Opposition, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

20. Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention: Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:
Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report compiles essays from several leading experts who participated in the seminar series. We asked them to reflect on one or more key themes and offer recommendations for research and/or policy initiatives that could help current and future leaders address mass atrocities. The collection of essays comprises diverse perspectives and spans reflections on everything from technical approaches to forecasting to practical recommendations on communicating risk to the overall efficacy of forecasting projects. Quscondy-Mohamed Abdulshafi provides recommendations for how mass atrocity monitoring and preventive interventions can make use of social media-generated big data and artificial intelligence (AI), and suggests the need for a strategic collaboration between social media companies and mass atrocity research institutions. Chiara De Franco discusses warning as persuasion, including the importance of clarity and specificity in the content of the warnings, the relationship between the warners and those expected to act on the warning, and the importance of developing a warning strategy that fits into the “swirl of intelligence” continuously confronting policy makers. Håvard Hegre outlines and weighs the benefits of different prediction targets. He argues that the field should move towards “continuous multi-period incidence” (CMPI) targets to avoid arbitrary coding thresholds, enable models to better use available information, and allow for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty in evaluating and describing results. Victor Okorie addresses the role of researchers in situations where atrocity risk is present, and describes the ethical and logistical challenges of those seeking to conduct research where gatekeepers and conditions demand loyalty to the state. In such circumstances, Okorie argues that researchers are obligated to take on an activist role, portray both victims and perpetrators, and strive for objectivity and reflexivity. Clionadh Raleigh questions the assumption of many early warning and prediction models that more accurate, timely warnings will result in the prevention of conflict. She argues that global models attempt to create consistency across cases where none actually exists, and that projects' focus on catastrophic events misses the need for response to low-level threats. She recommends a revised approach to early warning focused on studying each unique environment. Paul Slovic provides an overview of three psychological mechanisms that impede the impact and effectiveness of early warnings: psychic numbing, pseudoinefficacy, and the prominence effect. He concludes with recommendations for those who have been (or may become) victims of atrocity crimes, government officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the public.
Topic:
Political Violence, Social Media, Risk, Atrocities, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
Global Focus