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51. Rescuing the Unreachable: Personnel Recovery and Resupply in a Contested Environment

Author:
William Fensterer, Richard Jr. Marshall, Colleen Minihan, and Jason Philips
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
In a potential armed conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China in the Indo-Pacific, sustainment of the Joint force is not assured. China’s modernized antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities threaten sustainment lines of communication and challenge successful joint personnel recovery operations. This article examines the Joint operating environment through the lens of a historical case study, analysis of the current operating environment, and an assessment of the future operating environment—the next fight. The authors propose large quantity artificial intelligence (AI)-capable unmanned systems and a scalable force concept able to penetrate the A2/AD and recover and resupply the Joint force. Fielding new and existing technologies, continual doctrine refinement, and tailored wargaming is necessary to find and cover the gaps in our capabilities and be prepared to win the next fight.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Logistics, Joint Force Maneuver, Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, and Personnel Recovery
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

52. Breaking the Newtonian Fetish: Conceptualizing War Differently for a Changing World

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Explaining what a military’s social paradigm concerning conflict and war is requires a theoretical approach to both frame the core constructs and offer feasible alternatives. This article introduces social paradigm theory for military application and how most modern, technologically advanced militaries sustain a Newtonian-styled worldview concerning warfare and what constitutes war. The Newtonian-styled war paradigm gained prominence during the last five centuries, yet is now becoming increasingly insufficient and possibly irrelevant. The integration of ever-increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence into nearly all aspects of warfare will require new ways of thinking and how teams of humans and AI systems collaborate in complex security contexts immediately. The new combination of the space domain, cyberspace, those military forces associated with these new domains, and special operations activities are of increased focus for how and why conflict may change, particularly within an overarching traditional nuclear deterrence between state competitors. This requires a military paradigmatic shift, moving away from Newtonian constructs.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Warfare, Complexity, Force Design, and Emergence
Political Geography:
Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

53. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate

Author:
Masao Dahlgren
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

55. What to take away from the European law on artificial intelligence

Author:
Thaima Samman and Benjamin De Vanssay
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On top of all these initiatives and legislations, the European Commission has proposed two directives to the regulation on Artificial Intelligence (“Artificial Intelligence Act”, hereafter AI Act) is a landmark piece of EU legislation in the field of AI. One of its primary aims is to regulate the use of this technology in a number of areas based on a risk-based approach. In that respect, the AI Act sets gradual obligations for the different parties involved in the AI value chain depending on the level of risk that the use of AI raises in concrete use cases. The AI Act should therefore be viewed as a targeted intervention, and not a cross-cutting legislation like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The AI Act was adopted by EU co-legislators in May 2024 and will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union on July 12. It will apply from August 2, 2026. Meanwhile, the Commission has launched the AI Pact, a voluntary initiative inviting AI providers to comply with the key obligations of the AI Act in advance of its entry into force.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Value Chains, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

56. Investigating the Effect of the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China

Author:
Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Oh, and Hyuk Hu Kwon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
his report examines the significant impact of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed under the Biden administration in October 2022. These controls, which target a broad range of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips, are part of a strategy aimed at curbing China’s advancement in critical technologies. A notable 32.5% decline in China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been observed, particularly in regions with advanced production capabilities and foreign company operations, such as those involving Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. While Korea experienced substantial drops in exports to China, the Netherlands saw an increase, reflecting its dominance in specific technologies like lithography. The AI chip sector has also been affected, with China turning to downgraded chips due to restricted access to high-performance models from companies like Nvidia. South Korea must adapt by strengthening its upstream semiconductor industry, considering reshoring production, and collaborating with international partners to mitigate risks. As U.S. export controls continue to evolve, the global semiconductor industry may face increased fragmentation, making strategic responses from affected nations essential to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, ongoing monitoring and adaptation to the dynamic regulatory environment shaped by these export controls are crucial.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Exports, Artificial Intelligence, Imports, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

57. How Authoritarian Value Systems Undermine Global AI Governance

Author:
Sabhanaz Rashid Diya
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Digital authoritarianism is often considered an issue limited to a few illiberal regimes. However, neo-liberal AI technologies can be equally pervasive. It is crucial to treat authoritarianism as a values complex that permeates both autocratic and liberal societies. Authoritarian values may manifest through transplant of legal practices between states, autocratic homogenization through multilateral mechanisms, and exploitation of geopolitical tensions to adopt protectionist policies. These approaches exacerbate public polarization around AI governance by creating a false dichotomy between innovation and sovereignty on the one hand, and fundamental rights on the other, chipping away at institutional trust. Sabhanaz Rashid Diya writes that policy solutions to mitigate the erosion of democratic norms and public trust should focus on international mechanisms central to AI governance. These mechanisms need to introduce procedural safeguards that ensure transparency and accountability through equitable multi-stakeholder processes. Additionally, they should encourage regulatory diversity tailored to sociopolitical contexts and aligned with international human rights principles.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. The Accountability Surface of Militaries Using Automated Technologies

Author:
Arthur Holland Michel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
There are many people, decisions and technologies involved in the process leading to the use of force in military operations. Each of these touch points is a locus for applying — or failing to apply — accountability when things go wrong. The “accountability surface” is a new term of art to characterize the degree to which humans involved in the use of force can be held accountable for undue harm in warfare. As a metaphor, the accountability surface insists upon a crucial question regarding the use of military autonomous and automating technologies: Will the use of this technology expand or contract the degree to which anyone in the organization will be held accountable for any harms resulting from any process in which it plays a role? Automating technologies have the potential to significantly diminish the accountability surface of militaries that use them.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

59. Toward a Model Code for Digital Safety

Author:
Michel Girard
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Although standards are being published to address privacy, cybersecurity and high-risk artificial intelligence, more needs to be done to address digital harms. Stakeholders are playing catch-up with a tsunami of new, unproven digital technologies, and standards are developed after the fact. One approach gaining traction is the development of a model code for digital safety. This code would define a set of core values that should be embedded in new digital technologies in order to prevent harms from occurring in the first place. This would replicate what stakeholders have been doing for close to 100 years to ensure the safety of the built environment.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Safety
Political Geography:
Global Focus

60. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:
Governance, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, Large Language Models (LLMs), and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus