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34061. Security and Ecology in the Age of Globalization

Author:
Simon Dalby
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The environment has emerged as a major theme in the post-Cold War discussion of human security. There has been a considerable amount of detailed empirical work on the relationship between environmental change and likely conflicts. This article argues that, while the interconnections between the environment and conflict are many and complex, the likelihood of large-scale warfare over renewable resources is small. Nonetheless, environmental difficulties do render many people insecure. A parallel conceptual discussion suggests that the empirical work of environmental security research needs to be placed in the larger context of global economic changes and large-scale urbanization of a growing humanity. This urban population increasingly draws resources from rural areas, disrupting indigenous populations. All these dynamics are also complicated by the rapidly increasing scale of human activities, which has induced a level of material- and energy-flow through the global economy that is a new and substantial ecological factor in the biosphere. Given the scale of these processes, societies should carefully consider these interconnections and reduce their total resource throughput to improve environmental security and develop sustainable modes of living for the future.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States

34062. Migration, Population Change, and the Rural Environment

Author:
Richard E. Bilsborrow
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This article considers issues pertaining to the linkages between rural populations, migration from and to rural areas, and the environment—focusing on developing countries in the latter part of the 20th century. The article concentrates on internal migration, although it does briefly discuss the state of knowledge on the interplay between international migration and the environment. It addresses questions such as: What are the recent—and projected—patterns of rural population growth? How much internal migration in developing nations is towards rural environments? What kinds of rural environments are people moving into, in what countries, and what are the environmental consequences? Are there relationships in the other direction as well—that is, does environmental deterioration play an important role in out-migration from rural areas? And does out-migration from rural areas have environmental effects on the places of migratory origin? The article concludes with policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

34063. Population, Poverty, and Vulnerability: Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disasters

Author:
George Matrine and Jose Miguel Guzman
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Hurricane Mitch was one of the most destructive natural disasters of recent times, and it exposed the underlying vulnerability of the Central American region, where poverty magnifies the threat of natural hazards. International assistance for national disasters tends to focus on short-term recuperation rather than on long-range prevention. Policymakers need to pay greater attention to the role of population dynamics within necessary prevention efforts. This article analyzes the relationships between demographic dynamics and Hurricane Mitch in Central America, and extracts from that experience lessons that can help reduce vulnerability to natural disasters in the long run. Specifically, it centers on three aspects: How did demographic processes condition the area's vulnerability prior to Mitch? What are Mitch's consequences for population dynamics in the short- and long-term? How must population dynamics change in order to mitigate the effects of future natural disasters? Systematic use of such information could help blunt natural-disaster impacts in three important ways: planning of spatial organization, reproductive health needs, and design of adequate information systems.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Poverty, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Central America and Caribbean

34064. What is to be Done at Johannesburg? Issues for the World Summit on Sustainable Development

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Marking the ten-year anniversary of the historic 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa has been viewed throughout its preparations with both great hope and pessimism. Some analysts, activists, and policymakers think the Summit is the last best chance for the world to balance the three pillars (economic, social, and environmental) of sustainable development. Others are looking past Johannesburg altogether, skeptical that it can accomplish much. As of this writing in June 2002, even a clear Summit agenda remains elusive for governments and civil society alike.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Africa

34065. Toward an Uncivil Society? Contextualizing the Decline of Post-Soviet Russian Extremely Right-Wing Parties

Author:
Andreas Umland
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper uses some findings of research into non-Russian civil societies and ultra-nationalisms as well as selected examples of non-party Russian right-wing extremism to illustrate that the relative decline in radically nationalist party politics towards the end of the 1990s should not be seen as an unequivocal indication that „anti-liberal statism“ has lost its appeal in Russia. It also attempts to show that the considerable diversification in the non-governmental, not-for-profit sector of Russian society since the mid-1980s cannot be regarded as exclusively beneficial in terms of Russia's polyarchic consolidation, and further democratization. Not only is a Russian „civic public“ or „civic community“ developing only slowly. Some of the more significant preand post-Soviet groups, movements, and trends within the Russian voluntary sector are unsupportive, or explicitly critical of liberal democracy. A number of major non-state institutions and networks in Russian society contain ultra-nationalist, fundamentalist, and, partly, protofascist sub-sectors that question using the construct „civil society“ to designate them. These organizations' or groupings' primary function is less — or not at all — to enhance peoples' inclination and ability to participate effectively in political activities that could promote further democratization. Instead, they provide — sometimes expressly so — a medium for the spread of radically particularistic world views, ascriptive notions about human nature, and illiberal or/and bellicose political ideas, as well as an organizational training ground for potential political activists holding such ideas.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia

34066. The Adapted CFE Treaty and the Admission of the Baltic States to NATO

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Twelve years after conventional arms control began in Europe, the process is about to enter a new, critical stage as it extends to cover the entire continent. This will eventually rid it of the cold war 'straitjacket' and consolidate political and military security in the space extending from the Atlantic to the Urals.
Topic:
NATO and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

34067. Maintaining the Effectiveness of the Chemical Weapons Convention

Author:
Jean Pascal Zanders, Frida Kuhlau, John Hart, and Ronald Sutherland
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 28 April 2003 a Special Conference of the States Parties to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will be convened to review the implementation of the 1993 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (Chemical Weapons Convention, CWC) and to take into account new, relevant, scientific and technological developments. Whatever specific points may be considered, this Conference needs to address two underlying issues: States Parties' long-term interests in continued participation in the OPCW regime; and how the treaty's effectiveness can be maintained and enhanced given the latest shifts in the security environment (including the new urgency of counter-terrorist efforts), current political and financial realities and the fast pace of technological change. These can best be tackled if the Conference focuses its attention on a small number of manageable, well-conceptualized issues. Otherwise there is a risk that the Conference could become bogged down in open-ended discussions on a myriad of unresolved operational implementation issues.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

34068. Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
John Cope and Laurita Denny
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have failed.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Caribbean, and Chile

34069. Dissuasion as a Strategic Concept

Author:
Richard Kugler
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Some analysts want to downplay dissuasion or set it aside entirely because of its ambiguity. But ignoring this emerging idea would be short sighted. Despite its haziness, the term goes to the heart of new-era geopolitics in several key regions, including Asia. If the United States can learn how to dissuade skillfully, its strategic effectiveness in troubled regions will improve significantly. When the idea of deterrence first appeared 50 years ago, it too was ambiguous. During the Cold War, however, it acquired a role of central importance once it was equipped with a full-fledged strategic theory. The same may hold true for dissuasion in the early 21st century—but only if it too is equipped with the full set of analyses and calculations needed to bring it to life.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

34070. Flashman's Revenge: Central Asia after September 11

Author:
Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The terrorist attacks of September 11 swept away much of the uncertainty about Central Asia's importance to the international system and its relationship with the major powers, especially the United States. Indeed, the five states of the region—ajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan—have become among the most important frontline states in America's war on terrorism. But the war did not alter many basic long-term trends in the region that will complicate U.S. activities as well as color Central Asian perceptions of the United States. Beyond the immediate demands of the war on terrorism, many fundamental questions remain unanswered: How important is Central Asia to the United States? What is the nature of U.S. interest in the region? What role should the United States play in Central Asia: security manager, hegemon, limited partner? Defining the right role for the United States in Central Asia is no easy task. The region is geographically remote, unknown to much of the American public, and not easily accessible. It has few evident connections to the United States. U.S. interests in Central Asia— beyond the most basic ones such as peace, stability, and alleviation of human suffering, as well as those associated with terrorism—are not easy to identify in ways that the American people and their leaders would readily embrace. Moreover, the early record of U.S. engagement in Central Asia immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union and through the 1990s was not a positive one, resulting in mutual disappointments in Washington and the Central Asian capitals. That record offers important lessons that will be considered below.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, and Central Asia