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33872. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala 1977-1986
- Author:
- Timothy R. Gulden
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper examines detailed records from the civil conflict in Guatemala between 1977 and 1986. It reveals a number of novel patterns which support the use of complex systems methods for understanding civil violence. It finds a surprising, non-linear relationship between ethnic mix and killing; thereby inviting analysis based on group dynamics. It shows the temporal texture of the conflict to be far from smooth, with a power spectrum that closely resembles that of other, better understood, complex systems. The distribution of incident sizes within the data seems to fall into two distinct sets, one of which, corresponding to "regular" conflict, is Zipf distributed, the other of which includes acts of genocide and is distributed differently. This difference may indicate that that agents of the state were proceeding under different types of orders. These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict analysis of command structures.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala
33873. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?
- Author:
- Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America
33874. Kashmir: Redefining the U.S. Role
- Author:
- Navnita Chadha Behera
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- India and Pakistan have fought three wars against each other since 1947, the first two of which were over Kashmir. In the past fifteen years, the two countries have been embroiled in four military crises, which the United States has played an increasingly assertive role in managing and resolving. A chief component of recent American administrations' foreign policy goals in South Asia, including the current Bush administration, has been to avert the fourth war in the subcontinent. However, attitudes in India and Pakistan are changing, and the internal situation in Kashmir is more fluid than it has been for years. After September 11, America has been able to maintain close ties to both countries. Washington should move beyond managing the crisis and help develop a road to peace in the region.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, Washington, India, and Kashmir
33875. Reducing Collateral Damage to Indo-Pakistani Relations from the War on Terrorism
- Author:
- Polly Nayak
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- One of the major challenges facing Washington is how to limit unintended consequences of the war on terrorism in South Asia that could otherwise imperil both the U.S. counterterrorism strategy and the goal of preventing further conflict between India and Pakistan. Senior U.S. officials understandably hoped last fall that the war on terrorism would provide a new opportunity to draw in both India and Pakistan, to strengthen U.S. ties to each, and to nudge them to resolve their differences. Washington expected to expand cooperation with a rising India on a host of issues, while succoring a fragile Pakistan as a reward for abandoning an Afghan policy inimical to the war on terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Washington, and India
33876. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina
33877. Odious Debt
- Author:
- Michael Kremer and Seema Jayachandran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- When the international community wants to put pressure on a government that suppresses democracy and human rights, a common approach is to impose economic sanctions. Traditional sanctions, however, are often criticized as either ineffective or inhumane. The targeted government can find ways to evade them, and the sanctions may hurt rather than help the people in the country. For example, when trade sanctions are deployed, smugglers and even some national governments will likely flout them, enticed by profits boosted by the sanction itself. When trade sanctions are not evaded, the loss of national income can impoverish citizens. This policy brief proposes a new form of sanction that avoids these shortcomings and hence could be a valuable addition to the toolkit of sanctions available to the international community and national governments.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Political Economy
33878. Earnings Insurance for Germany
- Author:
- Gary Burtless and Holger Schaefer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, Germany has suffered high rates of unemployment and very slow employment growth. Workers who have lost their jobs face unusually long spells of unemployment, in part because the adverse incentives of the German unemployment compensation system provide strong impetus for unemployed workers to remain jobless.
- Topic:
- Government and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
33879. The Trezise Symposium on the Japanese Economy
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Japanese economy has undergone a decade of sluggish growth marked by three recessions, including the current one. This time, recession is accompanied by general price deflation, a situation unprecedented among industrialized nations since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Meanwhile, the financial sector sits on a rising mountain of bad loans. A serious financial crisis and deeper recession are real possibilities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
33880. Avoiding a Cyprus Crisis
- Author:
- Philip H. Gordon and Henri Barkey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The resumption of negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders has led to renewed hopes that the divided island of Cyprus can be reunified ahead of its likely invitation to join the European Union (EU) in December 2002. In fact, however, there is no guarantee that the renewed talks will produce a deal. Americans and other interested observers should support the process and encourage the leaders to compromise. But they should also be prepared for a scenario in which the parties cannot overcome their differences and the EU extends an invitation to join that would only apply to the Greek portion of the island.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, and Island