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33551. Tribunal Penal International Pour Le Rwanda: Pragmatisme De Rigueur

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Il y a un an, le Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) traversait une période de grande tension. En même temps que s'imposaient à lui des échéances claires quant à la fin de son mandat, le TPIR faisait face à trois défis essentiels: fixer un programme réaliste des poursuites lui permettant d'achever ses travaux d'ici 2008, date fixée pour l'achèvement des procès en première instance, établir un calendrier judiciaire reflétant ses priorités et la nécessité d'améliorer sa productivité, résister à la pression d'un gouvernement rwandais déterminé à empêcher toute poursuite contre des membres de son armée. Sur ces trois fronts, l'année qui vient de s'écouler aura marqué l'entrée du TPIR dans une phase de pragmatisme.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

33552. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia

33553. Jemaah Islamiyah in South East Asia: Damaged but Still Dangerous

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the South East Asian terrorist organisation based in Indonesia, remains active and dangerous, despite the mid-August 2003 arrest of Hambali, one of its top operatives.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

33554. Governing Iraq

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The horrific bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003 has focused renewed attention on the question of who, if anyone, is capable of governing Iraq in the current highly volatile environment and, in particular, on what ought to be the respective roles, during the occupation period, of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), the Interim Governing Council and the United Nations. This report proposes a new distribution of authority between the three - potentially acceptable to the United States, the wider international community and the majority of Iraqis - which would enable Iraq's transitional problems, including the critical issue of security, to be much more effectively addressed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia

33555. Moldova: No Quick Fix

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflict in the Transdniestrian region of the Republic of Moldova is not as charged with ethnic hatred and ancient grievances as others in the area of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and it is more conducive to a sustainable settlement. However, a "quick fix" in 2003, as envisaged by the Dutch Chairmanship of the OSCE, is also unlikely. To reach the sustainable agreement that is required if the forthcoming European Union (EU) enlargement is not to be compromised by a nearly open border with international crime and serious poverty, a comprehensive approach is needed that takes into account the root causes of the original conflict and the factors that have blocked the settlement process since 1992.
Topic:
Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

33556. Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects for an enduring peace in Afghanistan are still fragile despite progress since the ouster of the Taliban in December 2001. A key obstacle is the perception of many ethnic Pashtuns that they lack meaningful representation in the central government, particularly in its security institutions. Other factors contributing to growing alienation from the Bonn political process include continued violence against Pashtuns in parts of the north and west, heavy-handed search operations and collaboration with abusive commanders by the U.S.-led Coalition, and impediments to trade in the southern and eastern provinces. Unless measures are taken to address these grievances and ensure that a more representative government emerges from the forthcoming election, there will be a greater likelihood of the political process ending in failure.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

33557. North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Time is slipping away for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

33558. Colombia's Humanitarian Crisis

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This ICG report argues that it is paramount that much more decisive action be taken immediately to confront Colombia's humanitarian crisis. Massive human hardship and suffering has become a constant feature of life as the armed conflict has expanded and intensified. The government's humanitarian policy has encountered many difficulties, largely because of the magnitude of the crisis, the lack of state capacity, the reluctance to divert fiscal resources from military to social programs, and the wide gap between policy planning and reality.The launching of the Inter-agency Humanitarian Action Plan (HAP) by the UN in 2002 reflects a growing international awareness that more coordinated and effective action is urgently needed. But even more needs to be done, including achieving better coordination between the government and humanitarian organisations and increasing current levels of international humanitarian aid.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Migration
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

33559. The Israeli-Palestinian Roadmap: What a Settlement Freeze Means and Why it Matters

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Settlement expansion in the Palestinian occupied territories is endangering the viability of the Roadmap and, most importantly, of the two-state solution it contemplates and which forms the core of President Bush's stated vision. Freezing settlements is not the Roadmap's only requirement and, to Israelis, may not appear as the central one. But unless action is urgently taken, there is a serious risk that Israeli steps will jeopardise any realistic prospect of a fair and sustainable territorial solution. The seriousness of President Bush and the wider international community about the objective of achieving a two-state solution must be matched by an equal commitment to halting the settlement enterprise that is jeopardising it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Palestine and Arabia

33560. Hizbollah: Rebel Without A Cause?

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Few political actors in the Middle East have seen their environment as thoroughly affected by recent events in the region as Hizbollah, the Lebanese political-military organisation that first came on the scene in the mid-1980s. In U.S. political circles, calls for action against Hizbollah, which is accused of global terrorist activity, are heard increasingly. With the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has upped its pressure on Syria and Iran - Hizbollah's two most powerful patrons. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate indefinitely the organisation's armed presence on its northern border. Within Lebanon itself, weariness with Hizbollah and questions about its future role are being raised with surprising candour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria