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33542. Iran: Discontent and Disarray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia
33543. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany
33544. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia
33545. Refugie Set Deplaces Au Burundi: Desamorcer La Bombe Fonciere
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La signature d'un accord définitif de cessez-le-feu et la suspension permanente des hostilités, aussi élusives soient-elles aujourd'hui, risquent de produire le retour massif d'une population déracinée qui n'attendra pas que le pays soit fin prêt à les accueillir pour rentrer chez elle. Le rapatriement et la réinstallation rapides d'environ un million de Burundais ne pourront se faire dans de bonnes conditions que s'ils bénéficient d'une préparation minutieuse. Aujourd'hui, le gouvernement de transition comme la communauté internationale n'ont pas pris la mesure des conséquences politiques qu'un tel retour pourrait avoir sur le pays, notamment pour la gestion de la question foncière. Les conflits fonciers pourraient en effet devenir une nouvelle source de déstabilisation pour la transition au lendemain de la signature d'un cessez-le-feu définitif.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Migration
33546. Disarmament and Reintegration in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The domination of Afghanistan's political landscape by armed parties and individual commanders is still the principal obstacle to implementation of the political process that was agreed at the Bonn conference in late 2001. Without a credible process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former commanders and fighters into society (DR), it is inconceivable that any of the key elements of that political process - including the adoption of a new constitution, judicial reform, and elections - can be meaningfully implemented. More international engagement across the country - in the form of both security contributions and economic assistance - remains the essential ingredient.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
33547. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul
33548. Colombia: Negotiating with the Paramilitaries
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eighteen months after the rupture of peace talks between its predecessor and the main insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Uribe administration has entered upon a high risk-high gain negotiating process with the main paramilitary group, the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), that will test its skill and its good faith.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
33549. Iraq's Shiites Under Occupation
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The massive car bomb in Najaf on 29 August 2003, which took the lives of over 90 Iraqis, including the prominent cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, has put renewed focus on the fate of the country's Shiites. The attack comes in the wake of the attempted killing of other prominent clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Saed Al-Tabatab'i al-Hakim, al-Hakim's uncle. Although it is too soon to assign blame, it is not too soon to assess potential consequences: a heightened sense of insecurity; anger, directed both at the former regime and at the current occupiers; intensified intra-Shiite rivalry; and a growing risk of sectarian conflict as militias loyal to different groups vie for control.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia
33550. Two To Tango: An Agenda For The New Kosovo SRSG
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A new Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), former Finnish Prime Minister Harri Holkeri, has taken up his post at the helm of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). While UNMIK is in its fourth year, the current period is one of the most sensitive since the war. The province's elected Provisional Institutions of Self-Government (PISG) are gradually gaining more responsibility, and final status discussions are approaching. However, recent security incidents, including the killings of a UN police officer and two Kosovo Serb teenagers in August 2003, are a stark reminder that stability is not yet deep-rooted. Frustration is growing with the poor state of the economy and the delay of the international community in addressing status. In the midst of these challenges, the crucial relationship between UNMIK and the PISG has become dangerously strained. Holkeri will need to come quickly to terms with the legacy of confrontation and tension left by his predecessor, Michael Steiner, and instil in his team a new attitude of respect for PISG and a reflex for consultation rather than unilateral action.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo