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33441. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.5 percent in April.After declining in February and March, the leading index increased slightly in April. Since early 2002, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend. This is consistent with real GDP growth continuing to fluctuate around a 2% to 2.5% average annual rate.Despite rebounding financial indicators and consumer expectations, there is still weakness in the labor market and manufacturing indicators. Weakness in these components reflects the recent declines in manufacturing capacity utilization.The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, decreased in April after holding steady in March. The slight decline in the coincident indicators in April is consistent with the weakness in the leading index in the first quarter of 2003.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

33442. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2003

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March.The leading index declined for a second consecutive month in March, but the information available so far in April suggests that these declines will not continue. The leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend since December 2001.The flatness in the leading index suggests that U.S. real GDP growth will stay in the 2-3% range for now. As long as economic growth is constrained in this range, the labor market cannot improve.The coincident index has been essentially flat in recent months with gains in income and sales offset by weakness in employment and industrial production. With economic growth at or slightly below potential, the coincident index is unlikely to grow strongly.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

33443. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2003

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in February.The leading index fell in February for the first time since September 2002. Uncertainty over war in Iraq, as well as severe winter weather in February, is reflected in the widespread weakness, particularly in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the labor market. Some of these weaknesses have persisted through March.More generally, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend over the past 15 months with a balance between rising and falling components. The index fell in the third quarter of 2002, rose in the fourth quarter, and is now declining again in the first quarter.After flattening in the fourth quarter of last year, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 in January and held that level in February (with a decline in employment offsetting the gains in income, production, and sales). At this point, the leading index is suggesting that economic growth may be on the sluggish side in the second quarter.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

33444. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2003

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in January.A sharp drop in claims for unemployment insurance offset the weak expectations of consumers in January. The leading index remains well above its peak prior to the 2001 recession and just below the previous high achieved in May 2002.The coincident index turned up again in January after pausing in the last quarter of 2002. This month's increase in the coincident index, the largest in six months, is consistent with the gains in the leading index late last year and reflects better current conditions in the beginning of this year.Barring any shock or prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East, the leading and coincident indexes point to a more robust pace of economic activity in the coming months.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

33445. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka

Author:
Chris Smith
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

33446. Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation

Author:
Anna Matveeva, Maria Haug, and Maxim Pyadushkin
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper analyzes various aspects of the small arms issue in the Russian Federation. There are a number of reasons why a specific study of Russian small arms issues is helpful for policy-makers and researchers interested in small arms and light weapons (SALW). Russia is one of the world's major producers and exporters of SALW. The most successful and famous military assault rifle, the Kalashnikov, originated in the former Soviet Union. While the original rifle is no longer produced in Russia, its derivatives are still in production. The Russian Federation is also a country dealing with internal problems where the availability of small arms exacerbates the situation. These include regions of conflict, such as Chechnya, or problems of crime and personal security in big cities such as Moscow. Various methods have been used to retrieve illegally held small arms from Russian society, including regional buy-back programmes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

33447. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen

Author:
Derek B. Miller
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

33448. Small Arms in the Pacific

Author:
Philip Alpers and Conor Twyford
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This study examines a wide range of small arms-related issues in 20 nations of the southern Pacific. It investigates the status of existing firearm legislation, the extent of legal stockpiles and illicit trade, and the socio-economic impacts of armed conflict on Pacific communities. Case histories examine more closely the disarmament process in Bougainville and the Solomon Islands, along with the widespread disruption wrought with small arms in Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Current initiatives to combat small arms trafficking in the region are also examined.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific, Island, and Guinea

33449. The Commodification of Violence, Private Military Companies, and African States

Author:
Anna Leander
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article argues first that there is an increasing commodification of the use of force in many African states and it takes the example of the increased role of private military companies (PMCs) on the continent as epitomizing this development. Moreover, it points out that this commodification is widely accepted as both African and foreign governments, international organisations, NGOs, and private firms are relying on private firms. The article proceeds to spell out how this commodification affects state authority. It argues that the commodification of force poses problems for state authority both by undermining the direct control of states over the use of force and by undermining the basis of its authority. The article does not claim that state authority and the use of public force in Africa are unproblematic, nor that PMCs are the sole responsible for a situation they invariably worsen. Its aim is to underscore that it is a chimera to believe that reliance on PMCs is unproblematic for state authority and to clarify some of the mechanisms by which public authority is undermined by processes privatizing the use of force. Ultimately, the particularity of African states is likely to be reinforced rather than reduced by the commodification of the use of force on the continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa

33450. Disenchanted Conscription: A Military Recruitment System in Need of Justification

Author:
Anna Leander
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Economist's point of view is a widely shared one. It also seems warranted by current trends in policy-making in developed democracies. The US, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have abolished or are phasing out conscription. Even France, mother of citizens armies through the revolutionary levée en masse, just saw (literally as the event was broadcasted as a main feature of the evening television news) its last conscript leave the armed forces. The Nordic countries and Germany have not abolished conscription, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of the armed forces, which governments plan to shrink even further. For many observers this confirms that they simply lag behind. They will soon be brought to reason and abolish conscription. But this is a simplistic understanding of what determines the fate of conscription.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal