Number of results to display per page
Search Results
33192. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Recollections
- Author:
- Bruce Blair
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Rear Adm. Eugene (Gene) Carroll, our beloved colleague who passed away this February, often shared with me his recollections of the role he once played in planning for nuclear war. As quoted in his obituary in the Washington Post, Gene once wrote: “During the horrible confrontation with the Soviet Union we called the Cold War, I frequently stood nuclear alert watch on aircraft carriers. For a period of time my assigned target was an industrial complex and transportation hub in a major city in Eastern Europe … My bomb alone would have resulted in the death of an estimated 600,000 human beings. Multiply that by 40 or 50 times and you can understand what two carriers alone would have done.”
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Soviet Union
33193. The Defense Monitor: The World At War
- Author:
- Col. Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
33194. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia
- Author:
- Verghese Koithara
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
33195. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents
- Author:
- Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
33196. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China's Security
- Author:
- Tian Jingmei
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
33197. Container Security Report
- Author:
- Michael May, Tonya L. Putnam, and Dean Wilkening
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- During the week of August 18–23, 2002, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of the Institute for International Studies (IIS) at Stanford University hosted four summer studies sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. One of these studies, the Container Security study, examined how to apply existing technology and resources most effectively to prevent the transport of illicit nuclear materials for use in terrorist activities by means of international commercial shipping.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
33198. International Law for an Uncertain Environment
- Author:
- Barbara Koremenos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- For the past twenty years, the theoretical literature on international cooperation has focused on overarching questions about whether cooperation is possible and how important it is. The seminal contributions of the 1980s increased our theoretical understanding of the possibility of cooperation. Yet we know empirically that cooperation is pervasive. Hundreds of multilateral agreements are signed each year. If we count bilateral agreements as well, the number jumps to thousands. This is not to say that cooperation is easy. In fact, given the challenges of successful cooperation, it is time for the theoretical literature to focus not on whether cooperation can occur at all, but on more focused questions regarding how the actual institutions of cooperation work and through what means they have their impact on state behavior.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, International Cooperation, and International Law
33199. The Preventive Use of Force: A Cosmopolitan Institutional Proposal
- Author:
- Allen Buchanan and Robert Keohane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Since 9/11/2001 fears of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction have fueled a vigorous world-wide debate about the use of preventive force. “Preventive force” may be defined as the initiation of military action in anticipation of harmful actions that are neither presently occurring nor imminent.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, and Politics
33200. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers
- Author:
- Gerardo Munck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and North America