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891. PolicyWatch #1338: Winograd Part II: Implications for U.S.-Israeli Relations

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 30, retired Israeli judge Eliyahu Winograd released his much-anticipated second report on government decisionmaking during the summer 2006 Lebanon war. It did not issue a deathblow to Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, but instead described the breakdown in U.S.-Israeli strategic coordination as the principal rationale for Olmert's decision to invade Lebanon just hours before a UN ceasefire was to be implemented. This analysis has considerable ramifications for the future conduct of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

892. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
Topic:
NATO, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

893. Half Full or Half Empty: Assessing Prospects for Peace in Lebanon

Author:
Alistair Harris
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On the surface, peace has broken out in Lebanon, bringing to an end the 18-month political impasse between the governing March 14th coalition and opposition March 8th parties. Following a week of sectarian violence in Beirut, Tripoli and the Chouf mountains—the worst since the end of Lebanon's 15-year civil war in 1990—the opposing sides agreed to undertake talks in Qatar to resolve their longstanding political stalemate. The Qatari-sponsored Doha Accord that broke the logjam paved the way for the May 25 election of former Army Commander Michel Suleiman as a consensus president, to be closely followed by the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a revised election law. The re-invigoration of Lebanon's political institutions, the opening of parliament and ending of the presidential vacuum are welcome signs of a return to what passes for normalcy among Lebanon's confessional elites; they are not however a return to the status quo ante. For many months Arab League Chairman Amr Moussa, like French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, had tried to cajole the Lebanese belligerents into a compromise deal based on the much-vaunted concept of "no victor, no vanquished". These efforts failed. The fact that Doha succeeded where others did not is a clear indicator that there were indeed winners and losers. Therein lies the potential for future conflict.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

894. Killing Friends, Making Enemies: The Impact and Avoidance of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Author:
J Alexander Thier and Azita Ranjbar
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This USIPeace Briefing discusses the enormous problem of civilian casualties in Afghanistan; the “troops-in-contact” dilemma regarding air power; challenges in intelligence gathering; losses in the information war with Taliban forces; and policy recommendations to mitigate this trend.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

895. Iraq: Positive Change in the Detention System

Author:
Elizabeth Detwiler
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This USIPeace Briefing, summarizing remarks from a former commander for detainee operations in Iraq, discusses recent successes in improving the conditions of insurgent detainees in the country.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

896. Does One Right Make a Realist? Conservatism, Neoconservatism, and Isolationism in the Foreign Policy Ideology of American Elites

Author:
Brian C. Rathbun
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
American society, it is now frequently stated, is more politically polarized than at any time in recent memory, and a prominent front in the ideological battle between left and right is foreign policy. Most notable is, of course, the war in Iraq, but divisions between Republicans and Democrats over the proper definition of the national interest have been a feature of the post-Cold War era since its inception. Democrats and the left direct most of their ire at the neoconservatives who, they argue, have masterminded America's grand strategy since the terrorist attacks of September 2001. This partisan conflict, a genuine ideological difference, has somewhat distracted from divisions within the right. Neoconservatives have also faced significant criticism from other factions within the Republican Party. Condemnation from both traditional conservatives and isolationists has been as strident and vicious as that of the left. This raises the question of whether there is any common set of fundamentals that defines the right's foreign policy in the United States, and if not, why these subgroups are considered to be on the same side of the political spectrum.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
America

897. The Trouble With Congo

Author:
Séverine Autesserre
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, two million people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of the wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo

898. Rethinking Victory in the "War on Terror"

Author:
Philip H. Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
GJI A: You say in your new book, Winning the Right War: The Path to Security for America and the World , that we've been fighting the wrong war, the war on terror, for the past six years. Why is the war on terror the "wrong" war? What would be the "right" war? What do you mean by the title?
Topic:
War

899. Casualty Sensitivity in a Post-Soviet Context: Russian Views of the Second Chechen War, 2001–2004

Author:
Theodore P. Gerber and Sarah E. Mendelson
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
THEODORE P. GERBER and SARAH E. MENDELSON analyze Russian public opinion about the second war in Chechnya. They show that concern over Russian military casualties and the war's economic costs were the dominant sentiments, despite the Russian government's monopoly on media coverage of the conflict. Moreover, they argue that the war appears to have fueled ethnic animosity toward Chechens.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
Russia and Chechnya

900. Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War

Author:
James J. Wirtz
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Although officers and officials might be forgiven for hoping for the best when it comes to military strategy and diplomacy, they must plan for the worst. Some policymakers, however, have forgotten this simple idea behind prudent planning. It might be defeatist to base one's strategy on the worst-case contingency, but military strategists and diplomats alike should be prepared for some setbacks by not assuming that all the “breaks” will fall their way. Leaders who deliberately choose war probably underestimate its costs and risks, but realists understand that optimistic political rhetoric will fade once battle is joined.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States and Yugoslavia