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761. Congo : Une Strategie Globale Pour Desarmer Les Fdlr

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'offensive militaire conduite conjointement par la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le Rwanda contre les rebelles hutu rwandais s'est conclue sur un bilan mitigé. Quinze ans après le génocide rwandais et leur établissement à l'Est du Congo, ces rebelles n'ont toujours pas été désarmés et restent à l'origine de violences extrêmes perpétrées contre la population civile. Bien qu'elle n'ait plus les capacités militaires de déstabiliser le Rwanda, leur troupe forte de plus de 6 000 combattants – parmi lesquels se trouvent encore des génocidaires – continue de représenter un obstacle politique majeur à la consolidation de la paix dans la région des Grands Lacs. L'Est du Congo ne pourra être stabilisé sans que ces rebelles ne soient désarmés et démobilisés.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and War

762. International Journal Of Korean Studies

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The Chinese policy toward the Korean Peninsula from the beginning of the Korean War in 1950 had been to keep it within the Chinese sphere of influence. As the occupation of the Korean Peninsula by a hostile nation would inevitably threaten China's national security it would not allow any foreign domination of Korean Peninsula. Therefore, China has consistently supported North Korea economically and militarily for the past half century. However, the Chinese policy toward South Korea was beginning to change as South Korea hosted the Olympic in 1988. North Korea also participated in the Olympic. China began to adopt an equal distance policy toward the two Koreas and established the diplomatic relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 1992, an act of which was in fact the recognition of two governments in the Korean Peninsula. However, China insisted a peaceful reunification of two Koreas by opposing any attempt to reunify two Koreas by military means thus endorsing North Korean policy of reunification. When North Korea developed nuclear weapons in the 1990s and withdrew from the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1992, China supported the Six-Nation Talks by hosting them in Beijing for the sake of denuclearization of North Korea. This paper reviewed the role of China in the six-party talks, participated by China, the United States, Russia, Japan and two Koreas. Following series of negotiations in the 1990s and the six-party talks from 2003 to 2007 ten joint statements and agreements came out. This paper attempted to analyze them in the context of Sino-North Korean relations as well as North-South Korean relations. It is the conclusion of this paper that China expressed its national interest to realize the nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It is also China's interest that the two Koreas achieve the peaceful reunification. The Sino-South Korean relations has changed into a “strategic cooperative partnership” under the newly inaugurated government of Lee Myung-Back in Seoul.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Korea

763. Ending the Korean War: the Role of Domestic Coalition Shifts in Overcoming Obstacles to Peace

Author:
Elizabeth A. Stanley
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Throughout history, shifts in governing coalitions have critically affected war termination. For example, the execution of the Athenian democratic ruler Cleophon and the ascendancy of the pro-Spartan oligarchs in B.C. 404 led to Athens' surrender to Sparta and ended the twenty-seven-year Second Peloponnesian War. Similarly, the death of Russian Empress Elizabeth in January 1762 led her Prussophile successor, Peter III, to immediately recall Russian armies that were occupying Berlin and conclude the Treaty of Saint Petersburg by May—ending the fighting between Russia and Prussia in the Seven Years' War. During World War I, riots in Germany ushered in a new government that then negotiated the final war armistice, as Kaiser Wilhelm II fied to Holland. Likewise, during World War II, France and Italy surrendered shortly after changes in their governing coalitions, in 1940 and 1943, respectively. Most recently, on his first full day in office, U.S. President Barack Obama summoned senior officials to the White House to begin fulfilling his campaign promise to pull combat forces out of the war in Iraq.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, France, Germany, Korea, and Prussia

764. The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality? A Review Essay

Author:
Christopher Layne
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Over the next two decades, international politics will be shaped by whether the international system remains unipolar or is transformed into a multipolar system. Can the United States sustain its primacy? Or will the emergence of new great powers reorder the distribution of power in the international system? If U.S. power is waning, will power transition dynamics result in security competitions and an increased possibility of war? In particular, what are the implications of China's rapid ascent to great power status? If the United States is unable to preserve its hegemonic role, what will happen to the security and economic frameworks that it took the lead in creating after the end of World War II and that have provided the foundation for the international order ever since? In a world no longer defined by U.S. hegemony, what would become of globalization and the open international economic system that the United established after World War II and expanded after the Cold War ended? This essay reviews five publications that grapple with these questions: Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy; Parag Khanna, The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order; Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East; National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World; and Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World.
Topic:
Economics and War
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

765. A "New" Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs convened a private workshop, “A Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region,” May 7-10, 2009 in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein. The workshop's aim was to discuss in-depth the strategy of the Obama Administration toward Afghanistan and its region and to formulate additional recommendations. Some twenty leading international experts from the region, Asia, Europe and the United States participated. The meeting was co-funded by LISD, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Stiftung für Selbstbestimmung und Internationale Beziehungen (SiBiL) in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. The workshop was co-chaired by Francesc Vendrell and Wolfgang Danspeckgruber.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, New York, and Europe

766. U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

Author:
Charles D. Ferguson, Brent Scowcroft, and William J. Perry
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
For more than sixty years, the United States and the world have benefited immeasurably from a de facto taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. Today, however, this period of nonuse may come to an end, given the rise of a new type of terrorist who seeks to acquire and would not hesitate to detonate nuclear weapons. Moreover, the emergence of more states with nuclear weapons capabilities has raised the likelihood of the use or loss of control of nuclear weapons or the materials used to make them. The imperative before the Obama administration, therefore, is to use all available tools to prevent the use and further acquisition of nuclear weapons. This Task Force report identifies how to leverage U.S. nuclear weapons posture and policy to achieve that objective. It focuses on near-term steps, primarily over the next four years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

767. The United Nations Convention Against Torture. A Commentary • Commentary on the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Observers' Notes, Article by Article

Author:
Alexander Orakhelashvili
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
It is indisputable that the fight against impunity for the perpetrators of serious international crimes is a fundamental policy of the international community. As the International Court of Justice emphasized in the Arrest Warrant case, the functionally and temporarily limited immunity of the foreign minister of the Congo was not the same as according impunity to that official, because the number of ways of prosecuting him remained intact ( Arrest Warrant of 11 April 2000, Merits, General List No. 121, 14 February 2002, paras 60 – 61). The efforts to combat impunity for the perpetrators of serious crimes are conducted by two methods. The first method relates to establishing international tribunals, which has been the case since the Nuremberg and Tokyo Tribunals in the aftermath of World War II. This method is limited, because international tribunals necessarily have limited jurisdiction. They cannot address the problems of impunity in general, but only those aspects of it which are covered by their mandate as specified in their statutes. Even if this mandate is quite general, as is the case with the International Criminal Court (ICC), the actual extent to which impunity will be combatted still depends on the voluntary decision of states to become party to the Statute. The second method reflects the limited nature of international criminal tribunals. The remaining problems of impunity are addressed through the exercise of jurisdiction by national courts. This is reflected in the fact that the multiplication of international criminal tribunals over the past 15 years has not caused any decline in the activities of national courts in this field. Quite the contrary; the growth of international criminal jurisdiction has been accompanied by the equally remarkable growth of national criminal jurisdiction to address international crimes, including those committed extraterritorially.
Topic:
United Nations and War
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo and Tokyo

768. Armageddon in Islamabad

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The National Interest
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
IN DECEMBER 2007 Benazir Bhutto said, "I now think al-Qaeda can be marching on Islamabad in two to four years." Before this interview could even be published she was murdered, most likely by the Pakistani Taliban, an al-Qaeda ally. Benazir's words now look all too accurate. A jihadist victory in Pakistan, meaning the takeover of the nation by a militant Sunni movement led by the Taliban, would have devastating consequences. It would create the greatest threat the United States has yet to face in its war on terror. Pakistan as an Islamic-extremist safe haven would bolster al-Qaeda's capabilities tenfold. The jihadist threat bred in Afghanistan would be a cakewalk in comparison. The old Afghan sanctuary was remote, landlocked and weak; a new one in Pakistan would be in the Islamic mainstream with a modern communications and transportation infrastructure linking it to the world. The threat would be almost unfathomable. The implications would be literally felt around the globe. American options for dealing with such a state would be limited and costly.
Topic:
Islam and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

769. Perspectives from Fragile Crescent: A South Asia Crisis Simulation

Author:
Steven J. Tomisek, Christopher S. Robinson, and Kenneth Kligge
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Obama administration has arguably inherited the toughest national security environment since the end of World War II. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has propelled South Asia to the top of a U.S. national security agenda already crowded with a long list of major problems that includes North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. The political, security, and economic trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan have taken a turn for the worse, as the two countries confront an increasingly violent Taliban-led insurgency and al Qaeda–linked militant jihadist groups. To make matters even worse, Pakistan's relations with India have been damaged by the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.
Topic:
Political Violence, National Security, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, South Asia, North Korea, and Mumbai

770. Evaluating and Comparing Strategies of Peacebuilding and Transitional Justice

Author:
Olga Martin-Ortega, Chandra Lekha Sriram, and Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Following the end of violent conflicts, whether by military victory or negotiated settlement, international actors such as the European Union and the United Nations play an increasing role in peace building, through a range of security, governance, and development activities. These may or may not be mandated by a peace agreement or other formal settlement, and may or may not follow or work in tandem with a peacekeeping mission. International, regional, national, and local actors may work in a more or less collaborative, or coherent fashion. Nonetheless, many of the key challenges of peace building remain the same, and a familiar set of policies and strategies have emerged in contemporary practice to address these. Chief among the challenges of contemporary peace building is that of addressing demands for some form of accountability, often termed transitional justice (discussed in section 3). However, as this guidance paper explains, the demands of transitional justice and its relation to broader peace building activities, involve not just decisions about accountability, but a complex set of policy and institutional choices about security and governance as well. Thus, this guidance paper examines peace building and transitional justice as a set of linked policies and strategies regarding not just accountability, but security sector reform (SSR), disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of ex-combatants, and development of the rule of law.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
Europe