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302. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
303. Eve Geri Dönüş
- Author:
- Müge Dalkıran
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- The Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan assisted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which started in 2002, is the largest return program in the modern history. Whereas over 5,8 million Afghan refugees have returned to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013, 4,7 million of them participated in the Voluntary Repatriation Program. Being the asylum fatigue countries, Iran and Pakistan are the main host countries conducting this program together with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. This paper examines the Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan in the light of the situation in Pakistan and Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, and United Nations
304. Five Pillars of a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post 2014
- Author:
- Khalid Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Most of the conditions for a successful transition into a stable Afghanistan would require appropriate bureaucratic and institutional mechanisms to ensure that the momentum for change is harnessed and that timely follow-ups take place. The major parties with stakes in the security of Afghanistan will need a roadmap and a framework for achieving the policy outcomes identified in this policy brief.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
305. Women in Conflict Mediation: Why It Matters
- Author:
- Andrea Ó Súilleabháin and Marie O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Traditional approaches to international conflict mediation—in which statesmen hammer out agreements between governments, or between governments and well-defined rebel movements—are falling short in the face of 21st century violence. Interstate conflict has decreased dramatically, and today one off civil wars with clearly defined parties are relatively rare: 90 percent of civil wars occur in countries already affected by conflict. Despite international efforts to mediate and implement peace agreements, between a quarter and a half of all civil wars recur within five years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping
306. Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of heightened sensitivity. Peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh bogged down in 2011, accelerating an arms race and intensifying strident rhetoric. Terms like “Blitzkrieg'', “pre-emptive strike'' and ''total war” have gained currency with both sides' planners. An immediate concern is military miscalculation, with implications that could far exceed those of a localised post-Soviet frozen conflict, as the South Caucasus, a region where big powers meet and compete, is now also a major energy corridor. Clashes increasingly occur along the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontier far from Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict's original focus. Tensions have also spread to areas along the border with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan where Azerbaijani and Turkish exercised in July. A subsequent firefight produced casualties, and Armenia staged its own war games near the Azerbaijan border in September. Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, International Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
307. The Immigrant War
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Some journalists possess a deep knowledge of political and policy debates. Their job is to follow the political developments of a certain policy, report on its effects, and write about it over the course of decades. It's only natural, after so much experience, that they would want to transform their observations and reactions into books that illuminate opaque topics. Vittorio Longhi's The Immigrant War fails at this.
- Topic:
- War
308. US-Korea Relations: A Good Start
- Author:
- Ellen Kim and Victor D. Cha
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The highlight of US-ROK relations was the first summit between Barack Obama and Park Geunhye in Washington where the two presidents celebrated the 60th birthday of the alliance. Obama announced his support for Park's “trustpolitik” initiative, demonstrating bilateral agreement on policies toward North Korea. The US also voiced support for the thaw in inter-Korean relations reflected in resumption of dialogue over the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Meanwhile, South Korea and the US agreed to an extension of the US-ROK civil nuclear agreement, began negotiations on a Special Measures Agreement (host nation support for US forces), and restarted discussions on a possible delay of OPCON transfer.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Washington and North Korea
309. China-Korea Relations: How Does China Solve a Problem like North Korea?
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and See-won Byun
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- China-Korea relations entered an active phase of leadership exchanges during the summer of 2013 following North Korea's December 2012 satellite launch, its February 2013 nuclear test, and the passage of UN Security Council resolutions 2087 and 2094 condemning these actions. The exchanges have focused on the DPRK nuclear issue, which has been a source of unprecedented political tensions between China and North Korea. The aftermath drove continued debate on the extent of Chinese leverage and patience with Pyongyang. Beijing has reaffirmed its commitment to bring North Korea back to multilateral talks through revived bilateral exchanges with Pyongyang, including a meeting between Vice President Li Yuanchao and Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on July 26 in commemoration of the signing of Korean War armistice, which was celebrated in Pyongyang as a “victory.” Although Beijing's frustration with its North Korean ally has expanded Chinese willingness to include denuclearization as a policy objective it shares with the US and South Korea, differences remain regarding long-term strategic interests and the preferred tools for pursuing the objective.
- Topic:
- Security and War
- Political Geography:
- China and Korea
310. Japan-Korea Relations: No Signs of Improvement over the Summer
- Author:
- Jiun Bang and David C. Kang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- South Korea-Japan relations have been frozen for some time and despite the summer heat, no thaw appears likely anytime soon. Although economic interactions continue to deepen between the two countries, and although there is a clear desire – and even a need – to coordinate policies toward North Korea and China, the two countries appear more focused on other issues as their main foreign policy priorities in the short-term. The two recently elected leaders have yet to meet for a summit, a sign that even a symbolic attempt to repair relations is proving difficult. Japanese Prime Minister Abe has grown stronger with a rousing Liberal Democratic Party victory in Upper House elections, yet a number of rhetorical controversies kept attention focused on Abe's foreign policy, particularly toward Korea and China. To date not much has changed and there is little evidence that either Seoul or Tokyo desires improved relations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, America, and South Korea