861. Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Armenia and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, even though the framework for a fair settlement has been on the table since 2005. A comprehensive peace agreement before presidential elections in both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but the two sides still can and should agree before the polls to a document on basic principles, which if necessary clearly indicates the points that are still in dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while they engage in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there is a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years. By about 2012, after which its oil revenue is expected to begin to decline, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution. The international community needs to lose its complacency and do more to encourage the leaderships to prepare their societies for compromise and peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan