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11. India’s Quest for Jobs: A Policy Agenda

Author:
Venkatraman Anantha ("Van") Nageswaran and Gulzar Natarajan
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Proven to be the best engines for job creation, new and smaller enterprises are India's answer to rising unemployment and a burgeoning youth population. Research findings related to entrepreneurship, business growth, and job creation—as well as a comparison of India’s private sector with those of other countries—reveal an alternative path forward for generating productive jobs in India. Seven findings are particularly relevant: 1. Although micro businesses dominate most countries’ economies, India’s economy has an excessive proportion of less productive, informal micro businesses. 2. Employment in India is concentrated in the micro businesses, whereas in developed countries, it is concentrated in formal small and medium-sized firms. 3. Productive jobs are created by firms that start out as formal. 4. New and young firms create more jobs than older, established firms. 5. Growing and efficient firms are founded and run by educated entrepreneurs. 6. Older firms in India exhibit lower productivity than firms of similar ages in developed countries. 7. India has a deficit of productive, job-creating entrepreneurs and an excess of informal entrepreneurs focused on surviving. Based on the findings, it is clear that policies aimed at creating jobs should support, first and foremost, the establishment and growth of new and young formal firms. These policies should make it easier and less costly for entrepreneurs to start and grow a firm.
Topic:
Employment, Youth, Labor Policies, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

12. Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Phillips curve, which traces out a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, has undergone tremendous changes over more than 100 years. Some researchers argue that the slope of the curve in the United States fell substantially around 20 years ago so that unemployment now has little or no effect on inflation. This paper shows that another hypothesis is equally consistent with the data: The Phillips curve may be nonlinear when inflation is low, with the economy having operated in the flat region of the curve for most of the past 20 years. The next few years may be decisive in the debate between these hypotheses, as unemployment has returned to a range in which a nonlinear curve ought to display significant steepness. A flat Phillips curve implies little change in inflation going forward, but a nonlinear curve implies moderate increases in inflation over the next few years.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

13. Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Demographics, Natural Resources, Unemployment, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

14. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)

Author:
Avani Kapur and Meghna Paul
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is a flagship scheme of the Government of India (GoI) which aims to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year (FY) to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on: Trends in allocations and expenditures; Trends in employment provided and wages paid, and Physical assets created and status of work completion.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Employment, Finance, Rural, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

15. Unemployment in the SADC Region

Author:
Johanne Motsatsi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to estimate the determinants of unemployment in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Given the characteristic of the data, the study adopts Fixed Effect (FE) estimation technique. For further analysis, the study also estimated the ARDL panel model to capture persistence effect of unemployment in the region. The FE results reveals that real GDP, foreign direct investment, consumer price index, credit to the private sector and interest rate are negatively related to unemployment. While trade openness, labour productivity and population have a positive sign. The results estimated with ARDL model are not very different from those of FE model, but we obtained a noticeably smaller estimates for ARDL model. Variables which have negative association with unemployment suggest that they are likely to reduce unemployment. Therefore, such indicators may be of interest to policy makers when formulating unemployment reduction strategies. In terms of policy advise, the study recommends the government of SADC member states to encourage the education system that can equip leaners with entrepreneurial skills and in-job practical skills, in order to promote high success rate of SMMEs as well as to provide skills needed in the labour market. It also recommended enforcement of free trade of goods and services in the region as a means of making the industrial sector an engine of economic growth in order to create much needed employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

16. The Middle East economy in the last decade

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the problematic economic trends in the Middle East, which in part contributed to the 2011 Arab Spring. What has happened to the economies of the Middle East over the last decade? The last ten years have been ones of unprecedented drama because of the Arab Spring, its collapse and descent into war, and repression in most of the countries in which it occurred. This has obscured some very worrying underlying trends which were among the reasons why the Arab Spring occurred. The first is demographic pressure (See Table 1). The population of the Middle East has increased by nearly over 100 million, or 22 percent in the ten years preceding 2017. The population of the Arab states rose by 83 million or a quarter, while the three non-Arab states increased more slowly. Israel’s population rise was close to the Middle East average. Egypt, the largest Arab state in demographic terms, experienced a rise of 20 million or nearly 26 percent. These increases, which were among the fastest in the world, placed huge strains on the economies of the region. They required more food supplies in a region that is chronically short of water, investments in the infrastructure, and fast economic growth to generate jobs.
Topic:
Economy, Arab Spring, Unemployment, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East

17. Tunisia 2019: The Success and Failures of the Arab Spring

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the economic challenges facing Tunisia, a country which many have claimed represents perhaps the sole success story of the 'Arab Spring.'
Topic:
Poverty, Economy, Arab Spring, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

18. Exploring Short- and Long-Term Survival Mechanisms and Perception of Job Market by Zimbabwean Migrant Women in South Africa

Author:
Alice Ncube, Yonas T. Bahta, and Andries J. Jordaan
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This article assesses the perception of the job market, initial, and long-term coping and adaptation mechanisms employed by Zimbabwe migrant women in South Africa using survey data and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance. It concludes that women migrants perceived the job market as favorable. The demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and initial as well as long-term survival mechanisms of migrant women played significant roles in the coping and adaptation mechanisms. The study recommends that the government clarify policies on foreigners’ business ownership to avert conflicts.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Migration, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
South Africa and Zimbabwe

19. Fifth Africa Think Tank Summit -- Tackling Africa’s Youth Unemployment Challenge: Innovative Solutions from Think Tanks

Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Fifth Africa Think Tank Summit was held on 5 - 7 April 2018 at the Labadi Beach Hotel in Accra, Ghana, under the theme “Tackling Africa’s Youth Unemployment Challenge: Innovative Solutions from Think Tanks”. The Summit’s theme was based on the fact that jobs and opportunity for the youth are top priorities in the world today and while needing jobs, young people are also critical in creating them. It is with that understanding that the African Union Commission declared the years 2009–2018 as the “Decade for Youth Development”. A review, as the decade winds to an end, shows that while some African countries are experiencing high economic growth rates, these have not translated into jobs. The unemployment rate on the continent was approximately 8.0 percent in 2016- 2017, which, translated into absolute terms, corresponds to an increase in total unemployment of 1.2 million from 2016 to 2017. The reality, against which the Summit’s theme was designed, was that across Africa, youth are three times more likely to be unemployed than adults! The Summit’s concept paper, quoting a report from the African Development Bank, notes that “half of all youth (in Africa) are either unemployed or inactive while 35 percent are in vulnerable jobs. While gender inequality remains a challenge, a big concern and paradox is that youth unemployment rate is increasing with the level of education, suggesting that Africa’s education systems are not preparing people enough for the labour market”. Thus, despite the numerous policies and strategies that have been implemented across African countries to address youth unemployment, these have not led to any major breakthrough in job creation especially among the youth. Given these realities and building on the successes of the first, second, third and fourth Africa Think Tank, the fifth was being organized to harvest evidence and proffer actions to tackle youth unemployment on the continent. The 2018 Summit was organized in partnership with the Government of Ghana and the Institute for Democratic Governance (IDEG), a leading think tank in Ghana. Other collaborating partners were the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (CA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Think Tank Initiative, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI) and the Alliance for African Partnership (AAP).
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, Labor Policies, Capacity, Unemployment, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Ghana, and Global

20. The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit

Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit opened in Accra, Ghana, on 5 April with a call on African leaders to provide “a visionary and transformative leadership” if African countries want to successfully tackle the youth unemployment issues on the continent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Youth, Capacity, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus