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1. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:
Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

2. Protecting Food Security in the Face of Tariffs and Trade Wars

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade disputes affects food security. Increases in geopolitical tensions will undermine the best plans to maintain global supply chains, encouraging countries to develop alternative ones. Consumers in Southeast Asia, even though far from the geographic areas of dispute, will ultimately suffer from interruptions in food availability and price hikes. National strategies to ensure food security are needed.
Topic:
Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. Dismantling the License Raj: The Long Road to India’s 1991 Trade Reforms

Author:
Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change—pressure from domestic producer interests, shifts in political power, or conditionality by international financial institutions—do not explain the dramatic transformation that took place. Instead, reform-minded technocrats persuaded political leaders to reject what had been a standard response to balance of payments pressure (import repression to avoid a devaluation) and embrace a new approach (exchange rate adjustment and a reduction of import restrictions). This paper explores the economic and political context behind the country’s dramatic policy transformation. India’s experience highlights the crucial link between exchange rate policy and trade policy
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Reform, Tariffs, Trade, Imports, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4. How Export Restrictions Threaten Economic Security

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The fear that a foreign government will impose an export restriction that imperils another country’s economic and national security has driven part of the recent turn to industrial policy and the increased use of tariffs. Countries now worry about disruption not only to their access to energy but also to critical minerals, semiconductors, medical supplies, and other essential goods. Modern use of industrial and trade policy is thus often an attempt to move supply chains in the short term and to sustain them in those new places over the long term, in order to reduce national vulnerability to disruptions caused by export restrictions. However, achieving even modest forms of international cooperation on trade and industrial policy between countries seeking to improve their collective economic security will also require that these same countries take on new commitments to discipline their own use of export restrictions toward each other.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Tariffs, Exports, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Destined for Division? US and EU Responses to the Challenge of Chinese Overcapacity

Author:
Salih Bora, Mary Lovely, and Luis Simón
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Heightened concerns about China’s exports have intensified competitive pressures on producers and compelled American and European policymakers, government officials, and political leaders to try to counteract those concerns. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China by 145 percent is the most recent—and arguably most dramatic—example of broader concerns about Chinese overcapacity. The clash with China is particularly evident in sectors that US and European leaders have deemed essential for growth and security, charging that Chinese industrial subsidies, rather than comparative advantage, are the basis for the country’s export success. However, the European Union and the United States have taken different approaches to resolve tensions with China. The European Union seeks, at least for now, to preserve and adhere to global trading rules. By contrast, the United States has acted unilaterally (even before the second Trump administration) to defend its domestic production by engaging in a trade confrontation with China that, together with China’s retaliation, has rattled global financial markets. This Policy Brief explores these EU-US divisions, their reflection on trade and industrial policy, and prospects for coordinated action against Chinese overcapacity. The authors argue that the European Union can take the lead toward a resolution within the rules-based system while maintaining an open door to future US participation.
Topic:
European Union, Tariffs, Exports, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

6. Trade with Colombia is big business for US exporters—amid growing Chinese influence in Latin America

Author:
Geoff Ramsey and Enrique Millán-Mejía
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Colombia and the United States have achieved a close, mutually beneficial partnership over several decades on migration, security, counternarcotics, and commerce—with the US trade surplus with Colombia totaling $1.3 billion in 2024. The Colombian market is particularly important for US agricultural producers. Thanks to the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), Colombia is the top destination for US agricultural exports in South America and the third main destination in the Western Hemisphere. The United States is still Colombia’s largest trading partner in South America—with $36.7 billion in two-way trade in 2024—but January data showed Chinese products leading over US imports for the month. The TPA promotes both reciprocal trade and US influence; interpretative improvements to previously agreed-upon matters are possible,
Topic:
Economy, Business, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and International Markets
Political Geography:
China, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and United States of America

7. Local Economic Development Through Export-Led Growth: The Chilean Case

Author:
Andrés César and Guillermo Falcone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the causal impact of export growth on Chilean local economic development during 2000–2006 by exploiting spatial and temporal variations in local exposure stemming from the interaction of past differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of tariffs cuts and exports across industries. We find that growing exports implied a significant reduction in labor informality and labor income gains in more exposed local markets, driven by job creation and wage growth in the formal sector. These effects concentrate on senior skilled workers. Exposed locations also exhibit a greater relative decline in the poverty rate.
Topic:
Poverty, Employment, Economic Growth, Tariffs, Exports, Economic Development, Labor Market, Wages, and Informality
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

8. Can Multinationals Withstand Growing Trade Barriers?

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi, Michael Landesmann, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly dealing with challenges shaped by the new geopolitical and trade environments. Besides traditional tariffs, exporting firms need to comply with regulatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the form of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. Although trade costs associated with these policy measures affect all firms, implications could be multifaceted for multinationals that base their international activities on exporting and importing and are important for the formation of global supply chains. Applying Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood to the unique Orbis dataset of firms on multinational subsidiaries, we show that NTMs pose a greater challenge to MNEs’ subsidiaries’ activity and performance than tariffs do. High-tech manufacturing subsidiaries of foreign MNEs are particularly vulnerable to these NTMs, as they suffer higher regulatory losses. However, multinational affiliates that have higher productivity, those with full foreign ownership representation, those that are embedded within a larger international network of subsidiaries, and those that are located in trading partners with deep preferential trade agreements can turn these trade challenges to their advantage. Our results have important implications for policy makers regulating trade in goods.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Tariffs, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. VIP Pass to Markets: When Customs Certification Helps Firms to Face NTMs

Author:
Charlotte Emlinger and Houssein Guimbard
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess how trade facilitation measures reduce the costs induced by non-tariff measures (NTMs). It focuses on the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) certification, a firm-level trade facilitation measure defined by the World Customs Organization. This status allows firms to benefit from customs simplifications at the border, reduced physical and document-based controls, and priority treatment. We use an original and exhaustive dataset of French firms certified as AEO by the European Customs, merged with firm level trade from the French Customs. Our empirical strategy is to compare the export structure of firms before and after their certification to see whether the impact of NTMs on trade can be reduced by trade facilitation measures. Our results show that the AEO status enhances trade, but only when facing NTMs in the destination market. This confirms that some of the trade costs generated by NTMs are administrative in nature and can be reduced by pre-certifying firms. Our conclusion is informative about the kind of trade cost reductions that could be achieved by trade agreements that go beyond tariff reductions, without hindering the level of actual regulation.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Tariffs, Trade, and Customs
Political Geography:
Europe and France

10. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza

Author:
Perrihan Al-Riffai
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
Topic:
Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza