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661. Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq: Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts

Author:
Berghof Foundation
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The negative effects of climate change and the security risks associated with it are beginning to register across Iraq. Over the past decade, the rise in extreme weather events, such as high temperatures, droughts, desertification, flooding, and sand and dust storms, has caused various severe consequences, including water scarcity, loss of economic livelihoods (particularly for those relying on the agricultural sector), climateinduced displacement and migration, and a rise in food insecurity. Library 28 Sept 2023 Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts The negative effects of climate change and the security risks associated with it are beginning to register across Iraq. Over the past decade, the rise in extreme weather events, such as high temperatures, droughts, desertification, flooding, and sand and dust storms, has caused various severe consequences, including water scarcity, loss of economic livelihoods (particularly for those relying on the agricultural sector), climateinduced displacement and migration, and a rise in food insecurity. Download The country’s vulnerability to these impacts has risen due to capacity constraints and a lack of structures and mechanisms that can effectively respond to and mitigate the effects of climate change. The challenges Iraq is currently facing, including those associated with the recent conflict with ISIS, political exclusion, and poor governance, have only been exacerbated by the effects of climate change. This study seeks to delve deeper into the issue of climate change and its links to and effects on conflict dynamics throughout the country. Specifically, it focuses on climate pathways – or the ways in which climate change is contributing to conflict and insecurity – in Makhmur, Al-Rifai and Tal Afar. Overall, the study found that various pathways are present to some degree in the districts, with natural resources, livelihood insecurity, food insecurity, and weak governance the most prominent pathways. In addition, the report gives several recommendation on how to confront the effects on climate change in regards to conflict dynamics in Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

662. The Russian Arctic Threat: Consequences of the Ukraine War

Author:
Colin Wall and Njord Wegge
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine has been felt in the Arctic. The region’s primary diplomatic venue is paused, and military tensions are increasing. When Sweden and Finland join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), every Arctic country save Russia will be a member of the U.S.-led alliance. The war has not diminished Russia’s core economic and security interests in the region, but it has had some impact on its military readiness there in the short term, especially in terms of ground capabilities, if not at sea or in the air. In addition, there are some preliminary indications that sanctions and export controls may diminish Russia’s ability to deploy precision munitions to the Arctic to a degree. At the same time, Russia’s use of hybrid tactics in the region seems to be increasing in both frequency and severity. The United States and NATO will need to take stock of these developments in a region they have not historically prioritized as they begin to implement their new, respective strategies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Arctic

663. Analyzing China’s Escalation after Taiwan President Tsai’s Transit through the United States

Author:
Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Samantha Lu, Hannah Price, and Matthew Slade
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
As Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen transited through the United States in March and April 2023, China embraced significant military and diplomatic measures to coerce and punish Taiwan and, to some extent, the United States. This is reminiscent of Chinese actions after then-speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, though there were differences between China’s behavior. While some elements of China’s actions in April 2023 appear less escalatory than those in August 2022, there was considerable continuity and even progression with respect to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations, tactics, and reach vis-à-vis Taiwan. This brief analyzes Chinese activities in August 2022 and April 2023 and explores the factors impacting Beijing’s decisionmaking.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

664. Eight Commonsense Actions on Biosafety and Biosecurity

Author:
J. Stephen Morrison and Michaela Simoneau
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Today, there is a shared sense of vulnerability and a shared resolve across political divides to better protect the United States and the world against the accidental release of biological agents (biosafety), deliberate misuse of biological agents (biosecurity), and naturally occurring spillover of dangerous pathogens. Biosafety and biosecurity are critically important areas where individual freedom, ethics, scientific progress, and national security converge. As biological research and discovery accelerate at an unprecedented pace, they generate new risks that must be managed responsibly. The CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security’s Working Group on R&D Innovation advocates select, commonsense actions to strengthen U.S. and global biosafety and biosecurity: clarify U.S. policies and policy leadership within the White House; increase financial and diplomatic investments; update the rules around synthetic products and viral discovery work; and invest in research on basic lab protections and the new risks of artificial intelligence. Together, these timely, affordable steps can attract broad political support and promote a safer, more secure, and more innovative global bioeconomy.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Infectious Diseases, Biosecurity, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Global Focus

665. Sanctions against North Korea: From the UN Security Council to a Coalition of the Willing?

Author:
Eric J. Ballbach
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Since the breakdown in 2019 of high-level diplomacy with North Korea (officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK) and as a result of the fiveyear military modernisation plan that the country announced in January 2021, it has steadily expanded its military capabilities. It has not only conducted an unprecedent number of missile tests and in the process introduced a range of new missile technologies, but recently also introduced a new law that makes significant changes to its nuclear doctrine. At the same time, the rapidly changing geopolitical context, most vividly exemplified by the intensifying US-China rivalry and Russia’s war against Ukraine, not only makes a resolution of the international community’s conflict with North Korea over its nuclear weapons and military capabilities even less likely, but strains the central mechanism used by the international community to deal with North Korea during the past years, i.e. the imposition of sanctions through the UN Security Council (UNSC). Despite the unprecedented quantitative and qualitative progress in North Korea’s military build-up, the UNSC has imposed no new sanctions on the country since 2017. This Policy Brief examines why and how the UNSC stopped being the central theatre for imposing sanctions on North Korea and highlights the security challenges that result from this shift. Next, it addresses the most crucial implications of these security challenges. The analysis includes a discussion of the central actors driving new decisions to impose sanctions on North Korea outside the framework of the UNSC, and how these sanctions target one of the country’s most crucial sanctions-evasion mechanisms: its cybercrime programme. Based on this analysis, the brief offers policy recommendations that underscore the value of recent coordination initiatives in the field of sanctions and discusses what more needs to be done.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
North Korea and Global Focus

666. Advancing Norms for Outer Space Security

Author:
Natália Archinard
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the last decade the outer space sector has undergone a revolution. The number of space objects and missions has increased like never before,2 with many new public and private actors and renewed ambitions in space exploration. Commercial actors are playing a more prominent role alongside governments. The so-called “New Space” industrial dynamic is largely supporting these developments by offering cheaper and faster production in numerous space-related areas, as well as new kinds of products and services. The value of the global outer space economy is estimated to have reached US$547 billion in 2022 and could grow to US$1 trillion by 2030.3 From the origins of the exploration of outer space, this domain has been a strategic site where states could develop and demonstrate their technological capacities. Space-based technologies and satellite applications are currently providing essential information, services and tools in many areas of socioeconomic development, including in support of the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The collaboration between the public and private sectors in outer space is becoming ever more varied and entangled, leading to the establishment of strong ties and common interests. Military space-related capabilities may be used to impede the development of foreign commercial outer space systems4 and vice versa, while private actors may be directly involved in the development of military space capabilities or provide services to support them.5 Furthermore, pressure on the outer space environment, which is used both for military and civilian purposes, results in sustainability and safety considerations becoming intertwined with security concerns. Outer space activities are thus particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions between countries, which have reached new highs since the start of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Given the intrinsic competition between space actors and the risk of confrontation in outer space, it has become clear that new norms are required to keep misunderstandings and misperceptions at as low a level as possible and to ensure that outer space remains a stable and secure environment where activities can be conducted safely in the long term.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Space, and Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

667. Vilnius NATO Summit and Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Author:
Oleksandr Chalyi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The July NATO summit in Vilnius will undoubtedly be a momentum of truth for future relations with Ukraine. NATO will face one of the most difficult strategic dilemmas in its recent history. Namely, it will have to find an answer to the question “What threatens the security of the member states of the organization more - membership or non-membership of Ukraine in NATO?” Today, it is obvious that a consensus among all NATO members for the adoption in Vilnius of a historic decision on Ukraine's membership in the organization has not yet been reached. However, it is also clear that the principle of strategic uncertainty regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO will also not receive consensus support at the Vilnius Summit. At a time when the Ukrainian people, with enormous sacrifices, are successfully resisting full-scale Russian aggression while defending de facto NATO's eastern borders, most NATO members are in favour of a strategiccertainty of security relations with Ukraine. But the key point is that Ukraine itself is no longer ready to be satisfied with the “open door policy” or the rubber formula of the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit, which do not contain a clear algorithm (MAP or NATO decision on the adoption procedure) when and under what conditions NATO will be legally obliged to accept Ukraine to the Alliance. In this connection, President Zelensky repeatedly and firmly declares zero tolerance for any attempts during the Vilnius summit to leave Ukraine in a zone of strategic uncertainty regarding its prospects for accelerated NATO membership. Therefore, to give a concrete and honest answer is an imperative that every NATO member must comply with at the Vilnius Summit. It should be remembered that Ukraine pays for this momentum of truth with the blood of its soldiers and civilians, defending also de facto NATO's eastern borders. Such a response also suggests that any previous experience of Ukraine and NATO on security guarantees should be carefully studied and taken into account in the context of new geopolitical realities, so that mistakes and achievements of past periods are taken into account when making new decisions.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Security Guarantees
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

668. The Future of Small Modular Reactors: Implications for Nuclear Governance

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Alvin Chew
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are classified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as advanced reactors that produce electricity of up to 300MW. An SMR is a fraction of the size of a conventional nuclear power reactor and will produce carbon-free electricity. The Asia-Pacific region has seen renewed interest in nuclear power. Northeast Asian countries are involved in business and technological investments in developing SMR projects while Southeast Asian countries, as possible commercial users, are exploring SMRs as a future clean energy source. The development of SMR technology offers an alternative source of clean energy for Southeast Asian countries where energy demand continues to grow rapidly. However, in preparation for future SMR deployment, it is worthwhile to review ongoing efforts to enhance nuclear governance frameworks. Key challenges to the introduction of SMRs revolve around regulatory frameworks, operation and maintenance, spent fuel management, and the 3S (Safety, Security, Safeguards) of nuclear governance among others. This NTS Insight provides an overview of SMR projects in Northeast Asia and recent developments in Southeast Asia. It examines the critical roles of global nuclear safety and security regimes, national regulatory bodies, and nuclear vendors in ensuring a more robust nuclear governance that incorporates the 3S concept associated with advanced SMRs.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Asia-Pacific

669. Climate Security and Role of Women in ASEAN

Author:
Tamara Nair
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change processes are acknowledged as critical components of regional and international security, and ASEAN should mobilise all segments of its population and existing plans of action to tackle this challenge. The role of women in ASEAN’s peace and security including climate change should be acknowledged and strengthened systematically. The ASEAN Women, Peace and Security Regional Plan of Action offers such an opportunity for increased regional cooperation and resilience.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, International Security, Women, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

670. The U.S.-China Rivalry is Changing International Supply Chains

Author:
Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While the U.S.-China economic rivalry has been intensifying for years and is closely linked to the deterioration in political relations, the sudden collapse of supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the increased role of security considerations in economic relations and the interdependencies between China and developed countries. The American actions to reduce those links will have long-term consequences for U.S.-China relations and the economies of other countries.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Trade, Rivalry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and United States of America