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641. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume - The Yemen Review, August 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Counter-terrorism, Economy, Houthis, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

642. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

643. The Red Sea Front - The Yemen Review, November and December 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi military action in the Red Sea escalated dramatically during November and December, as the group announced the creation of a ‘third front’ against Israel in retaliation for its war in Gaza and military operations along the Lebanese border. Isolated attacks in October, nominally undertaken in solidarity with the besieged residents of Gaza, have mutated into a sustained campaign, with Houthi leaders now threatening to enforce a blockade of all ships headed to Israel through the area. Dozens of missile and drone strikes against maritime traffic have pushed the major shipping and oil companies to reroute their vessels. The attacks have been a public relations coup for the Houthis, who filmed the dramatic hijacking of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, and have painted themselves as defenders of the Palestinian people. Regional powers have been hesitant to condemn the attacks, which were occurring near daily as of mid-December. The response from the US and other Western powers has been cautious. The US has sent additional warships to the region, and the Pentagon announced the formation of an international task force to protect shipping, though the scope of coordination is not yet clear. Mindful of the popularity of the Houthis’ stance, regional states have refused to officially join the response, with the sole exception of Bahrain. But the task force is unlikely to be the final word in the response. The US, Israel, or other Western nations may still launch strikes if Houthi operations continue unabated. At present they show no signs of stopping, and the group continues to work to improve its maritime power projection. The Houthis have also continued to press on other fronts, launching an attack on Marib in early November. The operation was reportedly the largest in months, and the group has continued to send reinforcements and fortify its positions in the area. Its long-held interest in the governorate’s strategic oil fields does not appear to have abated. The Houthis have also intensified military action in southern Hudaydah, perhaps looking to extend their maritime reach toward the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. A Saudi-Houthi deal, which seemed imminent through much of November, now appears to be on hold. The scale and brazenness of Houthi attacks have given US and Saudi officials pause, even if they still wish for a settlement to be completed. With further military action likely, and the scale of the international response not yet clear, the Houthis’ position vis-à-vis the peace process and the internationally recognized government is now less certain. Should they or the Saudis abandon peace talks, Yemen could face renewed military contestation between the Houthis and their opponents. For its part, the UN Special Envoy’s office announced its continued support for the process. The declining prospects of a deal, which reportedly promised massive Saudi financial relief in the form of public sector salary payments, has further imperiled the cash-strapped internationally recognized government. Saudi assistance promised to the government in August has not arrived, and the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks have dramatically increased already high shipping costs, which are passed on to consumers. The country is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations as it relies almost entirely on imported foodstuffs, and the economic harm from Houthi operations will be felt most intensely in Yemen. Nearing bankruptcy, the government may no longer be able to pay salaries in the new year. It has already suspended FX auctions to finance basic commodity imports, and with its hard currency reserves exhausted, the value of the new rial has been falling since October. The government’s options to raise revenues are limited. A proposal to sell discounted oil to an Emirati company drew intense backlash, though it is unclear what other avenues are available. The government’s insolvency is perhaps most visible in its inability to provide electricity to the interim capital of Aden. The UAE sent an emergency fuel shipment in November to keep power plants running as an interim measure, but a long-term solution remains elusive.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

644. The Criminality of Foreign Nationals in Switzerland as a Security Threat in the Context of Swiss Migration Policy

Author:
Paweł Olbrycht
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The purpose of the research was to investigate the scale of crime by foreign nationals in Switzerland in the context of the effectiveness of the assumptions of the migration policy of that state in the area of security. Materials and methods: The research uses literature sources and statistical data on the crime of foreign nationals in Switzerland and its migration policy. The author used qualitative research methods, including the query of literature and strategic documents (using the content analysis technique) and the analysis of statistical data (using the desk research technique). Results: In the context of the three analysed factors, the following trends can be observed: steadily declining crime in Switzerland; the relatively constant level of crime by foreign nationals, especially since 2018; constant, although relatively mildly growing, percentage of foreign nationals’ crime in the overall crime scale. Conclusions: In the context of the assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of the assumptions of Switzerland’s migration policy in the area of security, it should be noted that the relatively constant level of the crime rate of foreign nationals, despite their constantly growing population, proves the optimality of these assumptions and their highly effective implementation.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Migrants, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Switzerland

645. Dangerous Decline: Russia’s Military and Security Influence in the Global South and the Implications for the United States

Author:
Hanna Notte
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
This study argues that Russia seeks to boost its military and security influence in the Global South in light of what it considers a protracted, systemic confrontation with Western states. Russia’s capacity to accrue such influence will vary considerably by domain and country. The war against Ukraine and its effects on Russia’s economy, technology base, and reputation are shaping demand and supply side factors—what states in the Global South want from Russia, and what Russia can offer. Though Russian power projection in the Global South will be limited, the impact of Moscow’s actions on U.S. strategic interests will not be trivial.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nonproliferation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States of America, and Global South

646. Interview with Ambassador Edward Djerejian

Author:
Christian Allard and Nick Vargish
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Ambassador Edward Djerejian has served as an important thought leader for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Both as Ambassador to Syria and Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs in the 1990s, Ambassador Djerejian was a vital participant in the Arab-Israeli peace process and was also deeply involved with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He also presented a coherent vision of how the U.S. should balance the goals of democracy in the Middle East by proclaiming in his Meridian House speech in 1992 that America would not be for “one vote, one person, one time.” This winter, as a Senior Fellow at HKS Belfer Center’s MEI, Ambassador Djerejian sat down with JMEPP editors Nick Vargish and Christian Allard to discuss pressing issues in the Arab World and the prospects for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Interview
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

647. The Egyptian Army’s Counterinsurgency: History, Past Operations, and the Sinai Campaign

Author:
Hossam el-Hamalawy
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Why did the Egyptian military, which had long avoided serious involvement in the police-led 1990s domestic War on Terror and the later fight against armed militants in Sinai, embark on a major counterinsurgency in Sinai following the 2013 coup? Why did it take the Egyptian military almost a decade to pacify the peninsula at a very high cost for Sinai residents and the military itself, despite the small size of the insurgent force and the relatively confined terrain where it operated? This paper will attempt to answer those questions, but first, it examines some catastrophic precedents where the army deployed its personnel in counterinsurgency operations, before delving into the recent Sinai war and what it tells us about the military’s mindset.
Topic:
Security, Counterinsurgency, History, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

648. Regional Reflections on the War on Ukraine: Diplomacy, Conflict, and the Future of South East Asia

Author:
Kristie Barrow, Chong Ja Ian, Joel Ng, and Melanie O'Brien
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In June 2022, the National Office of the AIIA hosted its first overseas roundtable since COVID restrictions were lifted at the Australian High Commission in Singapore. The day-long session featured several Australia- and Singapore-based experts considering how the war in Ukraine might affect thinking on security in Southeast Asia. Several members of the Singaporean Government and the diplomatic community in Singapore were invited to the event. This special report is a product of the same project, and the AIIA is grateful for the generous support of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

649. Oversight and Accountability to Improve Security Sector Governance in Africa

Author:
Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The security sector is equally subject to the law and oversight institutions as any other public agency. Weak security sector oversight institutions inhibit security sector professionalism in Africa. Stronger internal and external oversight is an essential element of enhancing security sector effectiveness. Security organs should construct institutional frameworks that nurture professionalism and a consistent apolitical posture. When security actors allow themselves to become politicized, they erode the credibility of security institutions among the population and can themselves become a security threat to citizens.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Accountability, and Professionalism
Political Geography:
Africa

650. The Leadership Conundrum in Nigeria and Implications for the Development and Peace of the Niger Delta Region

Author:
Tapuka Gerald and William H. Arrey
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In 1999, a new political era opened in Nigeria with the inauguration of the Presidency of Olusegun Obasanjo. This marked the beginning of the Fourth Republic. Though a retired military General, Obasanjo’s Presidency was rooted in a civilian platform following Presidential elections organised by the military leader, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. Prior to this, Nigerians had witnessed only one political transition through the ballot box. This occurred in 1979, when General Olusegun Obasanjo relinquished power to a civilian President, Shehu Shagari. Since 1999, Nigerians have unabatedly enjoyed the luxury of political transitions without military intervention or the barrel of the gun. In the past two decades, political transitions in Africa have been a rare phenomenon given the multiplicity of protracted presidencies and constitutional changes to foster the reign of long serving political leaders. For example, in Cameroon, President Paul Biya has ruled unabatedly for forty one (41) years. The multiplicity of elections has rather certified Biya’s protracted presidency. Likewise, though the country has been independent for more than six decades, there has not been a single ballot-based political transition. As such, incumbents have always won every election with a crushing majority. Moreover, within the six countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon) of the Central African Monetary Community (CEMAC), political transitions have been inevitably limited to the dead syndrome and not ballot box. It has paved the way for family succession as in Chad and Gabon and the subsequent unconstitutional change of governments and military coup , respectively in these countries. While ballot box transitions are still a challenge in most African countries, Nigeria’s transition have morphed to the level where an incumbent is defeated in an election by an opposition candidate. Going by this, in 2015 incumbent Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari. Since the advent of multiparty elections in most African countries in the early 1990s, such political transitions have been sustainable in few African countries including Zambia, Senegal, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania and The Gambia. This puts Nigeria in a more comfortable political situation than most African countries. Coupled with its estimated population of 213.4 million persons in 2021 (World Bank, 2023), Nigeria has the second largest crude oil reserves (37 billion barrels) in Africa, after Libya (US Energy Information Administration, 2020). Nigeria ultimately projects itself as a pinnacle of success and an African political giant which should evidently be translated into an Eldorado of peace and development especially in the Niger Delta area. Notwithstanding, the record breaking political successes on paper has not been translated into meaningful stability on the ground. In the last two decades, Nigeria has become one of the most unsafe countries in Africa and Niger Delta in particular even though not officially engaged in any civil war or military takeover as in precedent decades. Daily happenings reveal that the situation is becoming dire and civilians are caught in the web of violence and kidnappings. In 2018 alone, there were 416 violent incidents resulting in over one thousand deaths. In 2018, 351 of such incidences were recorded resulting in 546 deaths (Campbell, 2019). This shows a steady increase in violence in the Niger Delta. Within this period, there was also a significant rise in militant activities mainly against oil companies and Nigeria’s capacity to produced crude oil. Less than a decade after the Federal Amnesty in 2009 which saw a lull in militant activities including the main militant group MEND, another militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) emerged in 2016. Equipped as MEND with similar tactics and motives, the group succeeded in reducing Nigeria’s oil producing capacity from 2.2 million barrels of oil per day to 1.4 million. The militarisation of the area by Presidents especially Muhammadu Buhari who promised to use his military strategy to put out any uprising in Nigeria instead amplified the violence. Between 1999 and 2022, four Presidents have ruled Nigeria. However, none of these leaders have succeeded in alienating the Niger Delta from a past, rooted in insecurity and acute development challenges. Despite promises of alleviating poverty and curbing the rise of insecurity by successive Presidents, the area has still maintained a negative blueprint. Ethnicity is still rife and politics is decided on ethnic lines and the wealth produced by the area is unable to raise the standard of living of the people. Bamidele and Erameh (2023) argue that despite a flurry of measures, the Niger Delta remains stuck in environmental degradation because the policies of the government and companies is focused on gains at the expense of resource-related environmental utility. A better understanding of the Nigerian situation is sourced from the leadership and culture of violence (I), Nigeria’s leadership and violent resolution of conflicts (II), and the failure to convert Niger Delta’s wealth to national blessings (III).
Topic:
Security, Development, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger Delta