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631. Franco-German leadership in European security: Engine in reverse gear?

Author:
Iro Särkkä and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany and France led the European response to Russia’s first war in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The legacy of the failed Minsk process weighed on their ability to change course in 2022, as the required response went beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations. In both the French and the German case, there is a mismatch between self-perception and external expectations. France lacks the economic and military resources to substantiate its great-power identity, while Germany’s selective leadership is not on a par with its economic weight. As a result, neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were able to provide convincing leadership in the initial stages of Russia’s second war in Ukraine in 2022. While the Franco-German reconciliation has historically constituted the core of European integration, their response to Russia’s war of aggression and its wider implications in Europe has made it clear that the Franco-German engine is struggling to provide coherent and effective wartime leadership. The two countries should not only acknowledge the enduring central role of the transatlantic link for European security, but also enhance cooperation with groups of smaller countries – and consider following their lead, too.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

632. Cost of Violence Study: Costa Rica

Author:
Andrés Fernández Arauz and Camelie Ilie
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Costa Rica faces an unprecedented challenge in the form of escalating violence concentrated within specific regions of the country. This report delves into the country’s administrative divisions, shedding light on its eighty-two cantons, where critical security data is localized. Recent statistics up to September 2023 underline a concerning situation. While violence in Costa Rica remains lower than the regional average for Latin America, it is the country in the region where violence has grown the most since 1995.
Topic:
Security, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Costa Rica

633. Taiwan's Security Future: How Domestic Politics Impact Taipei’s Defense

Author:
Ethan Kessler
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
With a presidential election fast approaching, Taipei’s defense policy could go in multiple directions. As China has grown more militarily capable and assertive under President Xi Jinping, Beijing’s promise to forcibly unify with Taiwan has increasingly worried both Taiwan and the United States. Beijing’s large-scale military exercise near Taiwan this fall underscores the role Taiwan’s own military capabilities play in deterring conflict in the Taiwan Strait. To that end, US policymakers have increased defense cooperation with Taiwan and urged Taipei to do more for its defense in recent years. However, whether Taipei will stick to the defense policies implemented under current president Tsai Ing-wen is uncertain. This coming January, Taiwan’s voters will select a new president. Currently leading the polls is Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is committed to Taiwan’s sovereignty and views Taiwan as effectively already independent. Beijing has angrily decried this position and boycotted talks with Taipei as long as the DPP remains in power. Meanwhile, the path ahead for the Kuomintang (KMT), the primary opposition party, is riven with internal fissures. The party has traditionally sought closer economic and cultural ties with Beijing to defuse tensions—something it seems uniquely qualified for, since the PRC will not talk to the current DPP government. Yet emphasizing dialogue with an increasingly aggressive PRC, especially after Xi’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s limited self-government in 2020, has soured many voters on the KMT’s message. In response, reformers in the party have suggested a new direction more closely aligned with the DPP on national security to win back moderate voters, while traditionalists have doubled down on the old promise of peace through dialogue. This latter path would be worrying for the Biden administration, which has increased arms sales to Taipei and presided over a period of worsening US-China mistrust. US concerns are a helpful reminder that, whether discussing Taiwan’s future or the risk of a catastrophic cross-Strait war, Taiwan’s own politics cannot be ignored. The rigor of Taipei’s defense—and, with it, the health of cross-Strait deterrence—will depend largely on the course Taiwan’s politics take.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Elections, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, East Asia, and United States of America

634. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Rin Tueny has achieved success in pacifying parts of Lakes state, including the Greater Rumbek area. His methods, however, have prioritised security and deterrence over human rights and legal norms. Consequently, there is little meaningful institutional oversight. While Lakes state may appear to be a ‘success’ story, a relapse into turmoil is possible. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses the components of Rin Tueny’s ‘inclusive deterrence’ approach in Lakes state, South Sudan, and its blind spots. It also discusses the possibility of this approach being institutionalized at the national level.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Africa, South Sudan, and Lakes State

635. Out of Control: The Trafficking of Improvised Explosive Device Components and Commercial Explosives in West Africa

Author:
Small Arms Survey
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in West Africa expanded dramatically over the last decade. IED-building networks have established material and training links across conflict areas in West and Central Africa, and their designs have remained constant and inexpensive throughout the region—helping to increase their use in attacks against domestic and international security forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Out of Control: The Trafficking of Improvised Explosive Device Components and Commercial Explosives in West Africa—a new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in West Africa project—analyses data from more than 2,200 IED-related incidents between March 2013 and September 2022, and stresses the importance of coordinated regional approaches in eliminating illegal IED use in West and Central Africa.
Topic:
Security, Weapons, Trafficking, Armed Conflict, and IED
Political Geography:
West Africa and Central Africa

636. Cultura de la seguridad pública en Europa

Author:
Diego Torrente
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La cultura puede entenderse como un sistema de adaptación humana al entorno. Cuando éste cambia, aquella tiende también a evolucionar. Sin embargo, existen inercias culturales que permiten entender algunas pautas en las conductas de la población, incluso en contextos de cambio acelerado como el actual. Identificar los rasgos culturales de los países europeos en el ámbito de la seguridad pública es el propósito del presente artículo. Para ello, en primer lugar, se propone un sistema de indicadores que parte de una revisión teórica. Los mismos recogen aspectos de pensamiento y de conducta. En segundo lugar, se aplican esos indicadores buscando los mejores datos comparados disponibles de acuerdo con una serie de criterios de calidad. Se utilizan series temporales amplias para identificar las tendencias que se mantienen en el tiempo y que pueden resultar de inercias culturales. La principal aportación del presente estudio respecto a otros previos es utilizar un abanico geográfico, temporal, y de dimensiones culturales más amplio. Con ello, se logra un dibujo más afinado de las distintas representaciones y conductas de la Europa de la seguridad. El texto comienza por revisar cómo se ha definido y abordado el concepto de “cultura de la seguridad” en la literatura internacional. A continuación, se identifican sus dimensiones clave, se propone un sistema de indicadores para cada una de ellas, y se seleccionan un conjunto de fuentes europeas de datos sobre seguridad pública. El trabajo tiene un carácter más descriptivo que explicativo de las diferencias culturales. Al dibujar, de forma comparada, la cultura de la seguridad pública en Europa, este artículo contribuye también a entender mejor la situación actual en España, y a anticipar posibles escenarios en un contexto de fuertes cambios en los riesgos, como los que se analizan en las distintas contribuciones a este número de la revista.
Topic:
Security, Culture, Public Security, and Comparative Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe

637. The Role of the Geopolitical Position of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Towards American Foreign Policy from 1990 to 2017

Author:
Ala Alkhawaldeh, Mohammad Ahmad Nayef Alakash, Hani A. M. Akho-Rashida, Ziad Mohammad Al Wahshat, and Mohammad Saleh Bani Issa
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The role of the geopolitical location of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan towards United States (US) foreign policy from 1990 to 2017 is the focus of this study, which addressed the impact of important regional and international political events, positively or negatively, on the development of relations between the two countries in terms of political and security aspects. The study adopted a qualitative approach, and primary data was collected through interviews with 16 participants from political, economic, and security experts in Jordan and the US. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data obtained. The study concluded that US foreign policy recognizes Jordan as a close ally and considers its stability extremely important; Jordan has a suitable location to defend Israel because critical Arab countries surround it, and Jordan enjoys a unique geographical location in the Middle East. Some political events play an essential role in US foreign policy concerning security aid to Jordan, as the US links its aid to Jordan to political events.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America

638. Bring back the spirit of PESCO!

Author:
Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Five years after the launch of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), and five waves of projects later, it is the right time to ask whether the tool still corresponds to what its designers had in mind. Is this the PESCO we want? The spirit of PESCO PESCO is one of the main tools in the hands of the EU Member States to further the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). It is a dynamic instrument: in the last five years seventy-two projects have been launched – which could be considered a success –while progress has been made in fulfilling the most binding commitments assumed by the participating Member States (pMS) – albeit not to the desired degree. Yet PESCO faces a series of obstacles and debates that may lead to question its validity and future. Shortly after the approval of a fifth wave of projects, and in view of the fact that the review of the PESCO mechanism will begin in 2024, now is the time to ensure that it is on track.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Partnerships, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:
Europe

639. Withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq

Author:
Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The war between Israel and Hamas has increased the threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East, particularly for the 3,400 personnel in Syria and Iraq. Since October 7, 2023, dozens of U.S. troops have been injured in attacks perpetrated by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries, at times resulting in U.S. retaliatory strikes. Defensive measures and luck have prevented U.S. fatalities thus far. But U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are at significant risk as long as they remain deployed there. If a U.S. ground presence served a core security interest, that risk might be reasonable. But there is no good reason to risk U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS’s capabilities have been degraded, capable local actors eagerly hunt the group’s remnants, and the United States can still strike from long distance, if necessary, without local bases. Instead of enhancing U.S. security, the U.S. force presence in Syria and Iraq pointlessly risks war with Iran. Sending additional troops to the Middle East compounds the problem and grants U.S. adversaries in the region added leverage by giving them the ability to threaten U.S. forces. The added danger to U.S. forces is one more reason to withdraw from Syria and Iraq as a step toward de-prioritizing the Middle East more generally.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

640. Reinforcing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Diplomacy and Deterrence in the Pivotal Year of 2022

Author:
James J Przystup
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
On February 24, 2022, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine presented the world with a dramatic challenge to the rules-based international order. Ukraine’s fierce and continuing resistance has earned the backing of Western democracies. Under the leadership of the United States, democracies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific have rallied to provide political, diplomatic, and military support to Ukraine. As of this writing, despite difficult coordination on sensitive military issues, that unity remains intact. In the Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought preexisting security challenges into sharper relief. Across the region, security concerns were heightened and acquired greater definition in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean Peninsula. More broadly, Russia’s aggression called into question the staying power of the rules-based international order and, at the same time, raised recognition of the inseparable nature of that order. As the United Kingdom’s former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told the Atlantic Council on March 10, “conflict anywhere threatens security everywhere. Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security are indivisible.”1 This study begins with a consideration of the Indo-Pacific security environment as it evolved during 2022. It goes on to consider the measures by key regional actors—primarily but not exclusively the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and India—that strengthened deterrence in the face of an increasingly challenging environment. Expanding diplomatic coordination and security cooperation reflects a strategic commitment by the region’s democracies to support a rules-based order and advance a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. At the same time, European democracies have continued to expand diplomatic and security engagement with Indo-Pacific partners. The policy challenge for the United States and Western democracies has been to resist Russia’s aggression in Europe in support of the rules-based international order and, at the same time in the Indo-Pacific, to strengthen deterrence against the use of force or coercion to change the status quo.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific