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591. NATO's Strategic Concept from theory to practice: NATO Mission Iraq

Author:
Robert Dresen
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO’s security environment is changing rapidly, and so is the Alliance. Until a decade ago, out-of-area operations dominated the NATO agenda. That shifted in 2014 when Allies renewed their focus on territorial deterrence and defence in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its illegal annexation of Crimea. Two more recent events produced further shocks to NATO’s agenda. First, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 brought almost 20 years of NATO presence to an abrupt and traumatic end. Second, Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signaled the return of large-scale conventional war to the European continent. On the heels of these pivotal events, NATO adopted its eighth Strategic Concept at the Madrid Summit in June 2022.1 The document captures Allies’ shared assessment of the changing security environment and defines the key purpose and core tasks of the Alliance. It provides a renewed emphasis on deterrence and defence, yet it also reaffirms that effective deterrence and defence requires NATO to enhance its global awareness and reach. It also makes clear that the key purpose of NATO, the collective defence of Allied nations and populations, is supported by contributing to crisis prevention and management – its second core task. In light of the Afghanistan experience, the question arises how exactly NATO should seek to fulfil this role in practice. While assessing lessons learned from the Afghanistan experience, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations John Manza suggested that the NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) “provides a good proof of concept of how [the Alliance] might carry out these interventions with a lighter, more sustainable touch”.2 This Policy Brief aims to further explore this argument by analyzing the current practice of NMI set against the theoretical framework provided by the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept. It argues that the NMI is a litmus test for NATO’s evolving approach to crisis prevention. As such, the experience of NMI underscores the importance of a more holistic and flexible strategy, one that acknowledges the role of other external actors and plans for NATO’s contributions into a wider national and regional context.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Concept
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

592. Climate Change and the Political Economy of Hydropower Disruption

Author:
Jonathan Guy, Ishana Ratan, and Anthony Calacino
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Hydropower is the predominant renewable energy source globally and will play a key role in transitioning countries away from fossil fuels. Yet hydropower production is threatened by the effects of climate change, with significant implications for both energy security and the energy transition. In this policy brief, UC Berkeley PhD candidates Johnny Guy and Ishana Ratan, together with co-author Anthony Calacino, explore preliminary evidence from Brazil, Colombia, and Nepal that shows the multifaceted challenges hydropower-dependent nations face, and divergent responses governments have taken in response. They demonstrate why, in the face of increasing uncertainty, hydropower-dependent countries—already vulnerable to the impacts of seasonal disruptions to power supply—must develop robust strategies for load balancing and project risk management.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Strategic Competition, Geoeconomics, and Hydropower
Political Geography:
South Asia, Brazil, Colombia, South America, Nepal, and Global Focus

593. Full, Equal, Meaningful, and Safe: Creating Enabling Environments for Women’s Participation in Libya

Author:
Catherine Turner and Aisling Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Historically, the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda’s four pillars—prevention, protection, participation, and relief and recovery—have largely developed along separate trajectories. This has started to change with the UN Security Council’s recent progress in recognizing the link between women’s participation in peace and security and their protection, as well as the need to create “enabling environments” for women’s participation. Nonetheless, there is often a gap between international frameworks on participation and protection and the realities experienced by women, especially in conflict-affected contexts. To address that gap, this paper analyzes the experiences of women in Libya and the obstacles they face when participating in peace and security and political processes. Using an ecological framework, it details the risks that women who participate encounter at six levels: individual, interpersonal, community, national institutional, societal, and global institutional. Through this analysis, the report deepens the evidence for and understanding of the critical relationship between protection and participation, broadens analysis of and provides pointers for the mainstreaming of WPS in UN mission mandates, and provides a new framework to advance the creation of safe and enabling environments for women’s participation. In order to advance women’s full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation, the report offers the following recommendations. For the Security Council and member states: Continue to build on progress on mainstreaming WPS in mission mandates; Prioritize the implementation of Resolution 2493’s provision on creating “enabling environments” for women’s participation; and Ensure gender advisers with context-specific expertise are mandated and properly resourced in all UN missions. For UN missions, agencies, and partners: Conduct context-specific participation and protection analyses; Strengthen coordination between the UN missions, UN agencies, and other international organizations working on related issues to address the full range of protection-related barriers to women’s participation; and Ensure a gender-sensitive approach to the use of digital tools for participation to reflect the increased risks to women in online environments.
Topic:
Security, Women, Peace, Participation, Equality, and WPS
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

594. A Perfect Storm: Managing Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Randall G. Schriver
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The United States’ approach to security in the Taiwan Strait has long been defined by its “One China Policy” while maintaining “strategic ambiguity.” However, without coordinated, whole-of-government policies, the People’s Republic of China will continue to act aggressively in the Taiwan Strait and cross-Strait tensions will continue to rise. The United States must creates policies that support U.S. security interests in the Indo-Pacific and develop and execute a strategy for deterring an attack on Taiwan and defeating aggression should deterrence fail. The objective of this report is to offer recommendations for shaping near- and long-term U.S. policy regarding Taiwan in five different areas: political, science and technology, economic, military, socio-cultural, and non-traditional security.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Crisis Management, Strategic Interests, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

595. Terrorism and Immigration; A Risk Analysis, 1975–2022

Author:
Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. A total of 219 foreign-born terrorists were responsible for 3,046 murders on U.S. soil from 1975 through the end of 2022. The chance of a person perishing in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil over the 48-year period studied here is 1 in 4.3 million per year. The hazard posed by foreigners who entered on different visa categories varies considerably. For instance, the annual chance of an American being murdered in a terrorist attack by a refugee is about 1 in 3.3 billion, while the annual chance of being murdered in an attack committed by an illegal immigrant is zero. Looking at this spectrum of risk, any government response to terrorism must consider the wide range of hazards posed by foreign-born terrorists who entered under various visa categories. There were 219 foreign-born terrorists who planned, attempted, or carried out attacks on U.S. soil from 1975 through 2022. Of those, 67 percent were Islamists, 16 percent were foreign nationalists, 6 percent were right-wing extremists, 5 percent were non-Islamic religious terrorists, 4 percent were left-wing extremists, and the rest were separatists, adherents of other or unknown ideologies, or targeted worshippers of specific religions.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Immigration, and Cost-Benefit Analysis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

596. 2023 EAI-Genron NPO Korea-Japan Joint Public Opinion Poll: Japan and the ROK-Japan Relations

Author:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
East Asia Institute (EAI) and Genron NPO conducted the 11th Korea-Japan Joint Public Opinion Poll in August and September 2023 to gauge the attitudes of people in both countries regarding their bilateral relations. EAI has presented the survey findings in chart format within the "EAI Public Opinion Briefing." According to the results, citizens of both South Korea and Japan assessed that their bilateral relations have advanced and expressed positive opinions about strengthening cooperation in areas like security and economics, both bilaterally and multilaterally. However, there were contrasting viewpoints between Koreans and Japanese on whether this progress and the importance of bilateral relations have resulted in favorable perceptions of each other`s countries.
Topic:
Security, History, Culture, Public Opinion, Economy, and Perception
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and South Korea

597. Understanding and managing conflicts in the arid and semi-arid areas of Kenya: the case of Samburu County

Author:
Kelvin Lekapua
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article examines the undercurrents that shape the increasingly destructive conflicts in Samburu county, which is part of the Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) regions of Kenya. Over the last decade, the county has experienced ongoing conflict exacerbated by various factors. Samburu county is one of the 47 county governments of Kenya that lies within the ASAL region. It covers an estimated area of 21 022 square kilometres and is geographically bordered by Marsabit (Northeast), Turkana (Northwest), Isiolo (East), Laikipia (South) and Baringo (Southwest) counties.1 It is constituted of three sub-counties, namely, Samburu West, Samburu East and Samburu North, which are further subdivided into 15 wards.2 The majority of the communities therein practice nomadic pastoralism, with only a few engaging in agro-pastoralism as a means of livelihood. Over the last decade, Samburu county has continued to manifest unabated intercommunal conflicts. This is attributed to many factors, including the availability and misuse of small arms, inaccessible terrain, ungoverned spaces, struggle for scarce natural resources, intercommunal raiding, revenge and retaliatory attacks, harsh climatic conditions, and political incitements, among others. The persistent conflicts have been detrimental to the local economy and polarised intercommunal relations. Interventions to deal with the conflict, including through the deployment of security forces, have remained limited because they have largely been reactive and do not often address the root causes of the conflict, which are related to the structural conditions of underdevelopment and broken relationships. This article sets out to understand the nature, actors and issues that underpin the teetering conflicts in Samburu county. The aim is to suggest viable policy responses that may deal with the root causes of conflict and help address the local needs of the different communities in the county.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Economy, Conflict, Peace, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

598. Interrogating the legality, appropriateness and sustainability of vigilantism against migrants in South Africa

Author:
Charity Mawire and Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Since mid-2021, in the period preceding the run-up to the South African Municipal Elections that took place on 1 November 2021 to elect councils for district, metropolitan and local municipalities, South Africa experienced a rise of vigilantism against migrants and anti-immigration activism. Vigilantism against migrants and anti-immigration activism existed before 1994 and in the post-apartheid era, and it has often resulted in, or triggered, xenophobic attacks and xenophobic violence. However, it is the emergence of anti-immigration groups that has given rise to some community members, especially in urban areas, conducting vigils aimed at enforcing the country’s immigration laws and labour laws relating to the employment of foreign nationals. The communities are also focused on enforcing compliance with municipal by-laws on the regulation, control and licencing required for hiring and use of municipal premises and facilities for trading by foreign nationals, and the Foodstuffs, Cosmetics and Disinfectants (FCD) Act 54 of 1972 together with public health regulations relating to the alleged selling of expired, contaminated, unsafe, unhygienic or counterfeit food and food products by foreign nationals mostly operating spazas or small shops. Anti-immigration groups include Operation ‘Dudula’, the social media-based Put South Africa First Movement, the South Africa First Party, and All Truck Drivers Foundation (ATDF), among others. Vigilantism against migrants in South Africa rose in intensity, scale and scope in the first quarter of 2022, reaching disturbing levels on 7 April 2022, when a Zimbabwean national living in South Africa, Elvis Mbodazwe Banajo Nyathi, was brutally assaulted and burnt to death in the Johannesburg township of Diepsloot.1 As vigilante groups continue to engage in anti-migrant activism and grow their grassroots support and geographical and regional coverage, this paper seeks to interrogate the legality, appropriateness and sustainability of vigilantism against migrants in South Africa. The analysis adds to the ongoing mainstream debate on illegal migration in South Africa.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Discrimination, Xenophobia, Peace, Stigmatization, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

599. The APRM as a tool for preventing and mitigating domestic protests

Author:
Nkanyiso Goodnews Simelane
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the past five years, Africa has experienced increasingly more complex conflicts, requiring multi-dimensional approaches to enhance and consolidate the responses of states, Regional Economic Communities and Mechanisms (RECs/Ms), and the African Union (AU). Peace and security issues often interlock with those of governance, and in many respects, governance issues are the root causes of most threats to peace and security. One of the peace and security areas that have become increasingly more complex for states to deal with internally is local and national protest. Protests have become more frequent on the African continent.1 While there are various causes attributed to the increase in protest action, most of them emanate from governance shortfalls in Africa. Protests are an important avenue for citizens to relay domestic grievances, but they can pose a security threat when these issues go unaddressed for prolonged periods. Among other things, tools to detect and, therefore, respond timeously to emerging conflicts are necessary for countries to address governance issues to prevent the frequency and intensity of protests. In this regard, the AU has recognised the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) as an early warning tool for conflict prevention in the context of its harmony and synergy with the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA).2 This emphasises the nexus between governance and peace and security. The Peace and Security Council (PSC) further acknowledges the importance of the APRM as an effective mechanism for promoting conflict prevention by contributing to addressing structural root causes of conflicts that relate to governance.3 This article aims to assess the APRM Country Review Reports (CRRs) as early warning tools for identifying, preventing, mitigating, and addressing governance issues that cause, and arise from, domestic protests. Therefore, it looks at three APRM CRRs produced from 2018 to identify early warnings which can be linked to protests. Moreover, it will analyse the extent to which these early warnings were used in the domestic context of the member countries reviewed during this period, with a view to preventing or responding to local and national protests.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Protests, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

600. CEWARN’s Strategy Framework and Civil Society Partnership: Lessons for early-warning and response systems

Author:
Michael Aeby
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
After focusing on pastoralist conflicts in three cross-border areas for ten years, the Conflict Early Warning and Response Network (CEWARN) adopted an ambitious new Strategy Framework in 2012. The strategy transformed CEWARN into a system to detect and respond timeously to the potential escalation of violent conflicts that may be triggered by economic, environmental, governance, security and social matters in all member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).1 Besides expanding the thematic and geographical range, the strategy enhanced CEWARN’s partnership with civil society, which was initiated by the pioneering CEWARN Protocol in 2002.2 This article reviews the implementation of CEWARN’s partner-ships with civil society organisations (CSOs) for data collection, analysis and response under the current Strategy Framework. It identifies outstanding challenges and lessons for (inter)governmental conflict early-warning and response systems (CEWRS).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Crisis Management, Peace, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Africa