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561. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

562. DO NO HARM: US AID TO AFRICA AND CIVILIAN SECURITY

Author:
Patricia L. Sullivan
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
During her recent trip to Africa, US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a $100 million commitment over ten years to West African Nations to fend off the increasing threat of extremist groups. The announcement followed President Biden’s pledge of $55 billion to the continent for the next three years. While these promises reveal a US commitment to greater engagement with African states, the often-dodged question is whether citizens of these states will benefit. Will US security aid improve human security in fragile and conflict-affected African states? How is US security assistance likely to affect governance and state repression for citizens that often suffer at the hands of both extremist groups and their own security forces?
Topic:
Security, Development, Human Rights, War on Terror, Civilians, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

563. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System

Author:
Race and Rights (CSRR) Center for Security
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Civil liberties in the United States have been eroding for over two decades. Under the auspices of national security, federal agencies working with their state counterparts have built an expansive homeland security apparatus, facilitated by laws granting national security officials broader surveillance and investigative authorities. Prior to the attempted insurrection of January 6, 2021, national security powers nearly exclusively targeted Muslim and Arab communities – with many South Asian communities targeted in the immediate wake of 9/11 as well. At the same time, these powers have also furthered the mass incarceration of African American communities. The most invasive, and simultaneously secret, post-9/11 tool has been state fusion centers. Fusion centers coordinate federal, state, and local law enforcement through complex intelligence-gathering systems that retain, analyze, synthesize, and distribute data – with minimal oversight. They have become institutionalized within the American law enforcement framework post-9/11 despite little, if any, tangible results to show for their intended original purpose: preventing terrorism. New Jersey’s Regional Operations Intelligence Center is a prime example of expansive over-policing that targets marginalized communities fueled by the red herring of national security concerns – while much of its work remains opaque and inscrutable. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System examines New Jersey law enforcement’s unique use of CIA-style intelligence-gathering, some of its known harms in certain, well-documented instances like the City of Camden, and the Kafkaesque legal regime that works to keep vast amounts of public information out of the public eye. Three recommendations for New Jersey policymakers would help reign in these unaccountable drivers of mass incarceration and allay concerns that civil liberties are not still on the chopping block for Muslim, Arab, South Asian, and African American communities in the Garden State: Governor Murphy should appoint an ombudsman to oversee New Jersey’s intelligence system. The mechanism for this appointment already exists by way of a long-ago issued executive order – but has never been used. This ombudsman should have the authority to oversee the ROIC’s activities in collaboration with minority communities most impacted by surveillance. The New Jersey legislature should mandate regular reporting by the Chief Intelligence Director to ensure that the state’s domestic intelligence-gathering apparatus is focusing on actual terrorist threats while preserving civil liberties for all. Civil society should conduct a People’s Audit of the fusion center to determine the privacy impact on New Jersey’s diverse populations.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Minorities, Counter-terrorism, Islamophobia, Civil Liberties, Arabs, and Muslims
Political Geography:
North America, New Jersey, and United States of America

564. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Dillon Reisman, Michael German, and Ayah Zaki
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Civil liberties are vulnerable to infringement in large part due to the post-9/11 expansion of a government surveillance apparatus. Join us as we examine the threats to civil liberties and rights posed by Fusion Centers, as highlighted in CSRR's groundbreaking report Shining a Light on New Jersey's Secret Intelligence System.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:
North America, New Jersey, and United States of America

565. Transport and Transit Policy of Kazakhstan and the Silk Road Region

Author:
Bulat Auelbeyev and Aidar Kurmashev
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Since the emergence of independent states in the post-Soviet space, it has been predicted that the Silk Road region (i.e., what is usually called core or central Eurasia) could become a global strategic hub, due to both geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions. The region’s mid-continental position offers great opportunities for its core countries—particularly those located on its Central Asian side. Concomitantly, the region has attracted the attention of various centers of power—both regional and global. Furthermore, the development of trans-regional transport networks remains a hot topic, and the issue of communication development is on the agenda of almost all high-level international meetings. The already popular C5+1 format, in which various regional and world powers offer their cooperation to the Central Asian Five, also contains aspects of transport corridor development. Indeed, land transport corridors crossing the Silk Road region could create a new reality in the future. Modern logistics and transportation technologies make it possible to connect regions across the continent quickly and reliably. At the same time, states will seek to reduce the effect of non-physical barriers. This, in turn, will affect the relationship and security of all participants along the these corridors and beyond.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Transportation, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

566. The Geopolitics of Energy are Changing: It's Essential to Update Policies

Author:
Robert F. Cekuta
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Energy security is a core element of a country’s national security policy. However, what constitutes energy security is changing dramatically, which means governments must review and update their policies. Moreover, these policy reviews and updates must be ongoing, given the continuing, multifaceted evolution taking place in the global energy sector. Changes are afoot and it is imperative that policymakers are aware of this reality and are open to taking the necessary steps to take advantage of them. Just as a country keeps reviewing defense and other threats to its place in the world, so too must it reappraise and adjust its policies and tactics to ensure its energy security. Regardless of whether a country is a net importer or exporter of energy, countries the world over are affected by today’s dynamic realities. Moreover, while trying to anticipate how future directions and new developments in the global energy picture will affect a particular country or region, policymakers need to think not only about how to adapt, but also about how a country might try to affect those changes so as to improve its well-being. At the same time, a government must consider how others—whether friends or current or potential enemies—might try to shape these geopolitical changes. Passivity or simply just continuing policies that have been in place over the past few decades will not serve countries well.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

567. Waterloo Security Dialogue: Fostering Nationwide Cybersecurity Collaboration

Author:
Shelly Bruce, John Bruce, Aaron Shull, and Kailee Hilt
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
On June 27 and 28, 2023, the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) hosted the Waterloo Security Dialogue (WSD). The conference brought together leaders and experts to establish connections across jurisdictions with the objective of improving cybersecurity information sharing and incident response in ways that will contribute to a stronger national culture of cybersecurity resilience. The conference revolved around three key themes: cyberthreat information sharing; cyber incident collaboration and coordination practices; and initiatives to enhance cyber resilience in Canada. These themes were explored through engaging panel discussions, keynote presentations and interactive sessions. This report presents key takeaways from the conference discussions. It does not aim to present a unanimous consensus among participants or reflect the views of any specific individual or organization. Rather, its primary objective is to lay out key challenges and ideas identified by participants — these will be explored further through CIGI-led workshops and subsequent WSDs.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Conference, Resilience, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

568. European Union’s Role in the Maritime Security in Africa

Author:
António Gonçalves Alexandre
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The European Union depends on safe oceans for economic development, free trade, transport, energy security, tourism and a good marine environment. Maritime security stresses the importance of protecting the maritime domain from numerous threats, including disputes between states and various forms of transnational crime, but also the need to ensure a good order at sea, which is mandatory for the wellbeing and prosperity of the citizens. This paper aims to analyze the global maritime security production strategy followed by the European Union in Africa in the last decade and how it has influenced the protection of its member states’ interests in two of the most relevant maritime regions – the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. We argue that the EU has, in recent years, become a relevant global coproducer of maritime security in Africa and has even sought to strengthen its role in this area.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Africa, Horn of Africa, and Gulf of Guinea

569. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 9

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
There is a complete political deadlock and the leaderships in Afghanistan and Pakistan apparently also do not seem very much interested in getting out of it. At the same time, no one appears convinced to recognize the Taliban’s de facto government including Pakistan. The biggest bilateral problem, which concerns Pakistan the most, is the banned TTP and its cross-border terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan’s current stance is that it will not talk to the TTP, but to the Afghan government; the country lays the responsibility of checking the TTP incursions on the Afghan Taliban. However, the Taliban see the TTP as Pakistan’s internal issue, which not only adds to Pakistan’s frustration but also emboldens the militant group, which has already increased its terrorist attacks in Pakistan manifold. These are some of the findings of the PIPS-led 9th consultation on Afghan peace and reconciliation held on August 10, 2023 in Islamabad.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

570. Japan’s Role in Indo-Pacific Security

Author:
Satoru Mori and Ayumi Teraoka
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Facing an ever-intensifying security environment and rapidly shifting diplomatic and economic landscapes in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan aims to minimize the risks of an armed conflict while maximizing opportunities for region-wide economic and social exchange in an era of enduring great power rivalry. What are Japan’s challenges in deterring an armed conflict over Taiwan? What is Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific and what are its implications for the region? How does Japan envisage the roles that the Japan-US alliance and security cooperation with other countries may play in the Indo-Pacific? These and other issues and questions will be explored in order to illuminate what role Japan can play in regional security.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Regional Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific