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721. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

722. La industria española de defensa ante los nuevos conflictos: capacidades a aportar

Author:
Christian D. Villanueva
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Conflictos como los de Nagorno-Karabaj, el Donbás, Libia, Siria o Yemen han demostrado que incluso en escenarios tan diferentes, la difusión de los avances clave que protagonizaron la Revolución en los Asuntos Militares de la Información, es un hecho. Es más, la mayor parte de dichos avances están tan consolidados, que ya son de uso cotidiano no solo por parte de numerosos Estados, sino por sus proxiese, incluso, por parte de grupos terroristas y criminales transnacionales. Este fenómeno está íntimamente asociado a la erosión de la superioridad militar estadounidense, país que ve cómo la República Popular de China o la Federación Rusa, pero también Corea del Norte o Irán son capaces de retar a la otrora superpotencia. En este escenario, conscientes de la necesidad de compensar los avances realizados por el resto de actores, los EE. UU. han lanzado una serie de iniciativas, como la Third Offset Strategy, encaminados a lograr nuevos desarrollos tecnológicos y armamentísticos susceptibles de desembocar en una nueva Revolución en los Asuntos Militares o, quizá, en una Revolución Militar en toda regla. En este complejo contexto, en el que confluirán conflictos librados con medios heredados, con las nuevas armas, sistemas y plataformas y con la entrada en servicio de desarrollos que todavía no imaginamos, la industria española de defensa deberá luchar por sobrevivir, sabiendo que su principal cliente -el Ministerio de Defensa de España-, se encuentra en una situación muy delicada de cara a afrontar esta nueva etapa.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Conflict, Strategic Competition, Defense Industry, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

723. La industria de defensa en el mundo: hechos estilizados y tendencias

Author:
Antonio Fonfría
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Al igual que en otros ámbitos, las transformaciones tecnológicas, junto con su elevada velocidad han ido incorporándose en los sistemas de armas a través de la industria de defensa mundial. Sin embargo, no es posible conocer hasta qué punto los nuevos liderazgos tecnológicos están socavando los cimientos de los que había hasta ahora.Junto a ello, los cambios en los ámbitos geopolítico y geoeconómico están generando una realidad en la que aspectos como el comercio internacional de armamento, la irrupción de las PYME en el sector o, en lo que a la UE se refiere, el impulso a la política de defensa, transforman la morfología y relaciones entre los agentes que intervienen en este mercado. ¿Cuáles pueden ser las tendencias de futuro considerando los principales hechos estilizados que se observan en la actualidad?
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Weapons, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

724. Democratization, Poverty Reduction and Risk Mitigation in Fragile and Post-Conflict States

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe recession in recent decades, with a cumulative loss to global GDP of around $9 trillion. Climate disasters continue to affect the most vulnerable populations and countries, affecting more than 50 million people in 2020. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience have been insufficient in recent years. Global investments only reached $30 billion in 2017-2018, against estimated needs in developing countries between $140 and $300 billion per year by 2030. As governments worldwide design and begin implementing post-pandemic economic recovery programs, investments in adaptation and resilience provide a unique opportunity to generate jobs, restart economic growth, and tackle the inequities made more acute by the pandemic. We discuss practical policy and program options to achieve these multiple objectives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

725. AI is Shaping the Future of War

Author:
Amir Husain
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Several years ago, before many were talking about artificial intelligence (AI) and its practical applications to the field of battle, retired United States Marine Corps General John Allen, and I began a journey to not only investigate the art of the possible with AI, but also to identify its likely implications on the character and conduct of war. We wrote about how developments in AI could lead to what we referred to as “Hyperwar” — a type of conflict and competition so automated that it would collapse the decision action loop, eventually minimizing human control over most decisions. Since then, my goal has been to encourage the organizational transformation necessary to adopt safer, more explainable AI systems to maintain our competitive edge, now that the technical transformation is at our doorstep. Through hundreds of interactions with defense professionals, policymakers, national leaders and defense industry executives, General Allen and I have taken this message to our defense community—that a great change is coming and one that might see us lose our pole position. During the course of these exchanges, one fact became increasingly clear; artificial intelligence and the effects it is capable of unleashing have been gravely misunderstood. On one hand, there are simplistic caricatures that go too far; the Terminator running amuck, an instantiation of artificial intelligence as a single computer system with a personality and a self-appointed goal, much like the fictionalized Skynet. Or an intelligent robot so powerful and skilled that it would render us humans useless. On the other hand, there are simplifications of AI as a feature; trivializations in the name of practicality by those who cannot see beyond today and misconstrue AI’s holistic potential as the specific capabilities of one or two products they have used, or most likely, merely seen. I would hear from some that fully autonomous systems should (and more amusingly, could) be banned and this would somehow take care of the “problem.” Others thought the proponents of artificial intelligence had overstated the case and there would never be synthetic intelligence superior to humans in the conduct of war. But artificial intelligence is not like a nuclear weapon; a great big tangible thing that can be easily detected, monitored or banned. It is a science, much like physics or mathematics. Its applications will lead not merely to incremental enhancements in weapon systems capability but require a fundamental recalculation of what constitutes deterrence and military strength. For example, the combination of AI elements—visual recognition, language analysis, the automated extraction of topical hierarchies (or ontologies), control of systems with reinforcement learning, simulation-based prediction, and advanced forms of search—with existing technologies and platforms, can rapidly yield entirely new and unforeseen capabilities. The integration of new AI into an existing platform represents a surprise in its own right. But the complex interactions of such platforms with others like them can create exponential, insurmountable surprise. Which current conventional system deters such an AI creation? These reactions were all telling. Rather than seeing artificial intelligence as a science, people were reacting to caricatures or linear projections based on the past. Specifically, the contention that since no AI has been built thus far that can exhibit long-term autonomy in battle, such an AI could never be built. Or that if it were, then it would take over the world of its own volition. These reactions would not be as problematic if they were coming from ordinary people playing the role of observers. But seeing people in positions of power and authority—participants—espouse such thinking was worrisome. Why? Simply because artificial intelligence will lead to the most important capabilities and technologies yet built by humankind, and a failure to understand the nature of artificial intelligence will cause us to fall behind in terms of taking advantage of all it has to offer in the near, medium, and long term. The stakes are high beyond description.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, War, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

726. The Pentagon’s First Financial War

Author:
Justin Bernier
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
China’s strategy for achieving its global ambitions is driven as much by bankers and bribes as bombs and bullets. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to take every step imaginable to appropriate dual-use technologies—those with both civil and military applications—from the United States and its allies, while attracting billions of dollars in Western capital used to finance a modernization program for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) reports that the strategic end state this program supports, if realized, would have serious implications for nothing less than “the security of the international rules-based order.”1 The extent of this threat implies that military tools alone may not prevent an undesirable outcome. The Pentagon is dutifully preparing for the possibility of a kinetic war with the PLA, but DOD has a role to play on the financial battlefield, too. Defense leaders should consider three policy initiatives to curb the flow of technology and capital to China: Encourage compliance on technology transfer laws by rewarding companies and universities with strong export control practices when they compete for federal grants and contracts. Discourage investment in China’s “bad actor” companies by supporting a government policy to assume custody of shareholder voting rights in certain state-owned enterprises (SOE). Track Chinese expansionism through business and financial channels with an all-source intelligence capability designed to provide U.S. officials with strategic warning and policy support. A bureaucratic purist could paint these initiatives as inconsistent with the Defense Department’s core competencies, but this view would be short-sighted. DOD may be the only government agency with the financial leverage, the knowledge base, and the political will to roll back China’s strategy of stealing military technology and securing foreign capital for its armed forces buildup against the United States. More certain is the reality that U.S. servicemembers are endangered by ongoing technology and capital flows from the West to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These high stakes give the Pentagon little choice but to fight back against the financial warfare that China is already waging around the world.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Finance, and Pentagon
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

727. China’s “New Generation” AI-Brain Project

Author:
William Hannas and Huey-Meei Chang
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
China is pursuing what its leaders call a “first-mover advantage” in artificial intelligence (AI), facilitated by a state-backed plan to achieve breakthroughs by modeling human cognition. While not unique to China, the research warrants concern since it raises the bar on AI safety, leverages ongoing U.S. research, and exposes U.S. deficiencies in tracking foreign technological threats. The article begins with a review of the statutory basis for China’s AI-brain program, examines related scholarship, and analyzes the supporting science. China’s advantages are discussed along with the implications of this brain-inspired research. Recommendations to address our concerns are offered in conclusion. All claims are based on primary Chinese data.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Research, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China and Asia

728. Improving Digital Connectivity For E-commerce: A Policy Framework and Empirical Note for ASEAN

Author:
Lurong Chen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Global cross-border e-commerce has become increasingly important in the international economy. The next Asian miracle of growth could be born out of the region's digital transformation. Digital connectivity is the cornerstone that will make change feasible and smoothen the transformation. Digital connectivity consists of not only physical connectivity that facilitates the movement of raw materials, intermediate goods, and goods, but also cyber connectivity to support free flows of data, information, and services. This paper proposes a policy framework of promoting digital connectivity to support the development of e-commerce. Policy efforts to improve data connectivity, logistics, and online payment can help the Association of Southeast Asian Nations narrow the development gaps in information and communications technology infrastructure, both cross-border and within countries. Improving institutional connectivity and service development play a significant role. Digital connectivity is essential for the digital-friendly ecosystem that will facilitate digital transformation, which will affect not only e-commerce but also countries’ overall economic performance.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
ASEAN

729. New Developments in International Production Networks: Impact of Digital Technologies

Author:
Ayako Obashi and Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
We conducted a standard gravity exercise using worldwide disaggregated trade data to shed light on the influence of the spread of digital technologies on network trade. We found that growing investment in industrial robots in relatively lagging countries, together with imported digitally deliverable services, is enhancing bilateral network trade flows in East Asia, but not necessarily in other parts of the world. This suggests that exploring complementarities between machines and human resources in production blocks supported by better service-link connectivity may allow newly developed economies to retain and expand the international division of labour.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Productivity
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

730. Technology Imports and Employment in Developing Countries: Evidence from Viet Nam

Author:
Thu Thu Vu and Duc Anh Dang
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Advanced machines and technology replace workers through automation. However, capital–labour substitution need not reduce aggregate labour demand, as it induces simultaneous contrasting effects within industries. To explore these effects, we examine the relationship between employment in Vietnamese manufacturing firms and imported capital goods in 2011–2017. To solve the problem of potential endogeneity and measurement errors, we used Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) imported capital goods as an instrument variable for imported capital goods in Viet Nam. We found that imported capital goods do not displace employment and even increase employment and labour productivity. The impacts of imported advanced technology are more pronounced in large firms. More imported technology increases labour productivity in state-owned enterprises and the number of workers in large firms and firms in industrial zones. However, the increase in the level of employment is lower in industries and firms intensively using machines.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Employment, and Imports
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam