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1. Cyber Mapping the Financial System

Author:
Jan-Philipp Brauchle, Matthias Göbel, Jens Seiler, and Christoph Von Busekist
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risks present a growing threat for individual agents in the financial system: banks, insurers, central counterparties, and the like. However, cyber events may also have the potential to destabilize the financial system as a whole. While dedicated microprudential regulatory and supervisory regimes are in place or are being developed to manage cyber risks especially at credit institutions, what is lacking is a systemic view of cyber risks that particularly sheds light on concentrations and contagion channels that are material to the financial system.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Finance, Networks, Risk, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Operation “Shahid Soleimani”: Iran’s Revenge

Author:
Uzi Rubin
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Operation Shahid Soleimani, the Iranian revenge attack for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, was less spectacular than the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities last September and was apparently controversial even within Iran’s top leadership. Still, Israel can learn lessons from it: that Iran’s regime is willing to take extraordinary risks when it feels humiliated; that in certain scenarios precision missiles can be as effective as combat aircraft; that even a few precision missiles can disrupt the operation of modern air bases; and that good public diplomacy is crucial for crisis management.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Weapons, Crisis Management, Risk, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

3. A Pacific disaster prevention review

Author:
Paul Barnes
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Abstract:
Disaster risk reduction is a global policy issue. Reducing the likelihood and severity of damage and related cascading and cumulative impacts from natural hazards has become central to all nations and has triggered the evolution of international cooperation, multilateral responses and humanitarian aid efforts over many years. The nexus between natural hazards and vulnerability is central to appreciating the scale of the damage caused by large disasters and resultant sociotechnical impacts. Multilateral efforts to mitigate the impacts of weather and climate hazards have progressed over time. The Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation was a harbinger for the Hyogo Framework for Action, which emphasised building the resilience of communities and nations to the effects of disasters, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction as the current flagship of unified effort. Pacific island countries (PICs) have long been affected by weather-related disasters. Many PICs have been listed among the top 10 most disaster-prone countries in the World Risk Index over several years. In addition to damaging winds a convergence of flash flooding, king tides and high intensity rainfall contributed to damage to essential services, food supply and displacement of people across island economies. This year marks the fifth year of applying the Sendai Framework to Disaster risk reduction efforts globally - completing one-third of the Framework’s operational life cycle. It seems an opportune time to take stock of the challenges faced by selected PICs in incorporating guidance from the Sendai Framework into policy, legislation and practice. This report details independent views on challenges to implementing the Sendai Framework in eight Pacific economies. It does not pursue an in-depth analysis of constraints or impediments to implementation of the framework but seeks to present independent views on the ‘fit’ of the Sendai Framework to local needs in a general context of the Four priorities central to the Framework. It hoped that it can contribute to ongoing discussion and thought about important issues in a vibrant yet vulnerable region.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Multilateralism, Crisis Management, and Risk
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

4. Shock Mobility: Long term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and lock-down

Author:
Nina Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Shock mobilities are sudden human movements made in response to acute disruptions, such as the present COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike planned migration, shock mobility encompasses various degrees of forced migration or can be categorized as reactive migration caused by a crisis situation. Forced migration often starts with shock mobility, but shock mobility does not always lead to protracted forced migration. FUTURE IMPLICATIONS ■ Shock mobilities may affect broader socioeconomic relations in the future. Five manifestations of shock mobilities as ‘link moments’ provide clues as to how. ■ How shock mobilities will be received and internalized in the years ahead is uncertain. They could yield significant impacts on state-citizen relations, as well as on relations between different populations. ■ The ‘shocks’ give us a glimpse into the world we are entering. Tomorrow’s normality will grow out of today’s disruption. Therefore, a better understanding of ongoing shock mobilities will help us analyse potential problems for decades to come.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Fragile States, Conflict, Risk, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Climate-related Security Risks and the African Union

Author:
Vane Moraa Aminga and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
There has been considerable attention on the conventional climate mitigation and adaptation debate in Africa, including the prominent efforts of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change in global climate forums. However, there is little understanding of how the African Union (AU) is discussing and responding to the security implications of climate change. This Policy Brief outlines key strengths of the African Union’s response, such as a rapidly evolving discourse around climate security and efforts to improve collaboration and coordination among different parts of the institution. But also, key weaknesses in the discourse around AU policy responses, such as the lack of tangible policy operationalization as well as financial unpreparedness and limited member state accountability. The Policy Brief makes recommendations highlighting entry points for advancing the understanding and response to climate-related security risks within the AU, such as: (a) develop and institutionalize coordinated responses to climate-related security risks, (b) develop strong climate security leadership within the African Union, and (c) change the narrative to focus on shared problems and therefore shared solutions—multilateralism rather than nationalism.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Multilateralism, Risk, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

6. A Quantitative Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment Effects for Sustainable Development: Indonesia Case Study

Author:
Hiroaki Ishiwata, Hiroyuki Wada, Koji Suzuki, and Naoto Tada
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the long-term impacts of large-scale disasters on the economic growth of developing countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Community, by the scale of disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments. As a means of quantitatively analysing the optimal level and economic efficiency of DRR investments, a case study was conducted on Indonesia by using a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model. The results showed that in Indonesia, although greater economic growth is expected when additional DRR investments are made, an excessive DRR investment may contrarily lead to a slowdown in economic growth: an optimal level of DRR investment exists and maintaining its level is essential for sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, it was confirmed that there is a break-even point when the amount of accumulated disaster damage mitigation benefits exceeds the amount of accumulated DRR investment. This demonstrated that the funds invested in DRR could be recovered. Additionally, the results also showed that even if no disaster damage is caused over a long period of time, DRR investments are by no means redundant as the ‘ex-ante risk reduction effect’ will be generated when the optimal level of DRR investment is made. Lastly, it was determined that providing a continuous DRR investment is important in achieving the global target set forth in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. In addition, it is considered desirable to maintain a higher level of DRR investment than that which is currently being implemented.
Topic:
Economic growth, Investment, Risk, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

7. Economic Damage from Natural Hazards and Local Disaster Management Plans in Japan and Thailand

Author:
Makoto Ikeda and Thawatchai Palakhamarn
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Japan and Thailand are geographically similar in that both countries have a vast coastline and a population that is concentrated in urban areas. Natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, floods, and landslides bring about a considerable amount of damage every year. To counter these natural hazards, both countries have developed disaster management laws at the national, provincial, and prefectural levels. Establishing and executing local disaster management plans is particularly important as the initial response to a disaster is first performed at the local level. In this study, we have focused on the local disaster management plans in Thailand and examined the state of the development of the plans, which are essential during a post-disaster period. We also found that in Japan there was a defined tangible system of cooperation with the private sector based on the unique characteristics of each local government.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Risk, Private Sector, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Thailand

8. The Global Exchange (Fall 2019)

Author:
Christy Clark, Monica Gattinger, Wilfrid Greaves, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Geoffrey Cann, Matthew Foss, Kelly Ogle, Jean-Sebastien Rioux, Wenran Jiang, Robert Seeley, Dennis McConaghy, and Ron Wallace
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Global Exchange
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The demand for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) continues to grow and Canada’s unconventional reserves remain amongst the very best in the world. With political will and an appetite to embrace gas the way Premier Lougheed once championed oil, we can still put the wealth of Western Canadian gas to work for the good of all Canadians. The papers that follow will be essential pieces for policy makers as they map out the path to Canada’s next great economic transformation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Gas, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Australia, and North America

9. Injecting Humanity: Community-Focused Responses for People Exiting Violent Extremist Conflict

Author:
Chris Bosley
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Communities worldwide face the challenge of reintegrating people exiting violent extremist conflicts. This report draws on established programs and the recommendations of authoritative bodies to examine community-based approaches to their rehabilitation. Given that criminal justice responses may not always be possible or appropriate, recovery-focused approaches such as resocialization and reconciliation are recommended to minimize risk and foster resilience.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Conflict, Criminal Justice, Risk, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

10. Cyber Risk Scenarios, the Financial System, and Systemic Risk Assessment

Author:
Lincoln Kaffenberger and Emanuel Kopp
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risk has become a key issue for stakeholders in the financial system. But its properties are still not precisely characterized and well understood. To help develop a better understanding, we discuss the properties of cyber risk and categorize various cyber risk scenarios. Furthermore, we present a conceptual framework for assessing systemic cyber risk to individual countries. This involves analyzing cyber risk exposures, assessing cybersecurity and preparedness capabilities, and identifying buffers available to absorb cyber risk–induced shocks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Finance, Internet, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus