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312. France and its Muslims: Riots, Jihadism and Depoliticisation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La France a un problème avec ses musulmans, mais ce n'est pas celui qu'elle croit. L'embrasement des banlieues d'octobre-novembre 2005 ainsi que la vague d'arrestations dans les milieux jihadistes ont ramené l'Islam au centre des préoccupations françaises et ont donné du souffle à ceux qui brandissent la me nace d'un monde musulman s'organisant à partir de l'islamisme politique. Pourtant, c'est tout le contraire: paradoxalement, c'est l'essoufflement de l'islamisme politique plus que sa radicalisation qui explique les violences à prédominance musulmane et c'est la dépolitisation des jeunes musulmans bien plus que leur prétendue re-communautarisation sur des bases radicales qui de vrait inquiéter. Afin de minimiser les risques de l'émeute et du militantisme jihadiste, il faudrait à la fois s'attaquer aux problèmes socio-économiques dont souffren t les cités, réduire les violences qui s'exercent contre elles, et favoriser la participation politique de ceux qui y résident.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
313. The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The bomb attack on a sacred Shiite shrine in Samarra on 22 February 2006 and subsequent reprisals against Sunni mosques and killings of Sunni Arabs is only the latest and bloodiest indication that Iraq is teetering on the threshold of wholesale disaster. Over the past year, social and political tensions evident since the removal of the Baathist regime have turned into deep rifts. Iraq's mosaic of communities has begun to fragment along ethnic, confessional and tribal lines, bringing in stability and violence to many areas, especially those with mixed populations. The most urgent of these incipient conflicts is a Sunni-Shiite schism that threatens to tear the country apart. Its most visible manifestation is a dirty war being fought between a small group of insurgents bent on fomenting sectarian strife by killing Shiites and certain government commando units carrying out reprisals against the Sunni Arab community in whose midst the insurgency continues to thrive. Iraqi political actors and the international community must act urgently to prevent a low-intensity conflict from escalating into an all-out civil war that could lead to Iraq's disintegration and destabilise the entire region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
314. Lebanon at a Tripwire
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided, debilitated Christian community in between. The fragile political and sectarian equilibrium established since the end of its bloody civil war in 1990 was never a panacea and came at heavy cost. It depended on Western and Israeli acquiescence in Syria's tutelage and a domestic system that hindered urgently needed internal reforms, and change was long overdue. But the upsetting of the old equilibrium, due in no small part to a tug-of-war by outsiders over its future, has been chaotic and deeply divisive, pitting one half of the country against the other. Both Lebanon's own politicians and outside players need to recognise the enormous risks of a zero-sum struggle and seek compromises before it is too late.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
315. Islamic Law and Criminal Justice in Aceh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Aceh is the only part of Indonesia that has the legal right to apply Islamic law (Shari'a) in full. Since 1999, it has begun slowly to put in place an institutional framework for Shari'a enforcement. In the process, it is addressing hard questions: What aspects should be enforced first? Should existing police, prosecutors and courts be used or new entities created? How should violations be punished? Its efforts to find the answers are being watched closely by other local governments, some of which have enacted regulations inspired by or derived from Shari'a. These moves in turn are sparking a raging debate in Indonesia about what role government at any level should play in encouraging adherence to Islamic law and how far the Islamisation drive will or should be allowed to spread.
- Topic:
- Politics and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
316. Afghanistan Stage III: NATO's most ambitious operation?
- Author:
- Francis Rheinheimer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- In the months ahead, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will deploy thousands more troops to Afghanistan as part of its ongoing mission to “support the Government of Afghanistan in providing and maintaining a secure environment in order to facilitate the re-building of Afghanistan.” Troop levels are expected to rise from about 8,000 in January to 17,000 by the end of October. The expansion, known as Stage III, will be responsible for maintaining security in the troubled southern provinces, where most violent attacks against foreign and domestic forces have taken place. NATO's commander, U.S. Gen. James L. Jones said ISAF could total as many as 25,000 troops eventually. British, Dutch and Canadian forces will be leading the effort to bring peace to Afghanistan through both civilian and military methods. Troops will be engaged in peacekeeping, reconstruction and, in all likelihood, open conflict – an effort Jones called “NATO's most ambitious operation.” Despite a lack of popular support for the missions in all three of the main troop-contributing countries, international leaders have pledged to safeguard Afghanistan from both internal and external forces that would otherwise lead the country into chaos.
- Topic:
- NATO, Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
317. Afghan Update: April 1 - April 30, 2006
- Author:
- Francis Rheinheimer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- A senior U.S. State Department official said on April 3 that more violence was expected in the coming months. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Richard Boucher reaffirmed the opinion of some U.S. military leaders that the warmer months and the increased presence of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops would signal a stepped up effort by insurgents to disrupt peacebuilding and reconstruction efforts. Boucher also cited the battle against narcotics traffickers as cause for increased fighting.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
318. Terrorism Statistics Flawed
- Author:
- Francis Rheinheimer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- It has become a truism that any attempt to define or quantify terrorism is informed by political trends, and thus subject to fluctuations based not on hard facts but on political fashion. Yet the State Department's now defunct annual publication, Patterns of Global Terrorism, was the closest approximation of any government effort to provide information in an objective and consistent manner. As a successor to Patterns, the report produced by the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) – called A Chronology of Significant International Terrorism for 2004--effectively ends over 20 years of analytical consistency in the U.S. government's terrorism accounting practices.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
319. Afghan Update: March 3 - March 31, 2006
- Author:
- Francis Rheinheimer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Three Afghan guards and a French Special Forces officer were killed when insurgents attacked a post in Kandahar on March 4. The same day, a roadside bomb exploded when a government vehicle drove by, killing a local intelligence chief and three of his bodyguards. The Taliban claimed responsibility for both attacks.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
320. Afghan Update: Jan. 1 - Feb. 7, 2006
- Author:
- Francis Rheinheimer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Four U.S. soldiers were killed on Feb. 13 when their vehicle hit a bomb in central Afghanistan's Uruzgan province. It was the deadliest single-day loss of American troops since September, when five died in a helicopter crash.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States