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781. What Ever Happened to Portuguese Euroscepticism? The Depolicitization of Europe and its Consequences

Author:
Pedro C. Magalhães
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
In the following sections, I will argue that although opinions about Portuguese membership in the EU have ceased to play a crucial role both in party appeals and electoral behavior, that is not the case in what concerns their impact on other forms of political behavior and attitudes. More specifically, I will suggest that the decline in electoral turnout currently experienced in Portugal, particularly since 1995, cannot be fully understood with exploring the combination between resilient Euroscepticism among a minority of the population and the depoliticization of Europe at the level of political élites. Furthermore, I will also suggest that, under the present conditions, anti-Europeanism may have developed into a more permanent and disturbing set of political attitudes of mistrust in, and disengagement from, domestic political institutions.
Topic:
Political Economy and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Portugal

782. The Uneasy Triangle

Author:
Lloyd Ulman and Knut Gerlach
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
". . . It is impossible for any community to have very full employment and completely free collective bargaining and stable prices. Either one of the three will be completely sacrificed, or else all three will have to be modified. ". . . In the last resort the answer will be given not by economists or by administrators but by the public opinion. At each corner of the triangle, the limiting factor is what public opinion will stand, and the degree of comprehension that public opinion will show for an economic policy that tries to preserve balance between competing objectives.
Topic:
Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

783. The Enlargement Challenge: Can Monetary Union be Made to Work in an EU of 25 Members?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
This lecture considers how Europe's monetary union will evolve in the next five to ten years. It concentrates on what is likely to be the most important change in that period, namely, the increasing number and heterogeneity of participating states. By 2006, less than four years from now, it is virtually certain that EMU will be enlarged to include a number of Eastern European countries that have not yet been admitted to the EU itself. These new members will differ sharply from the incumbents in terms of their economic structures, their per capita incomes, and their growth rates. The analysis focuses on the implications of this momentous change for the structure, organization and operation of EMU.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

784. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?

Author:
Gary Hufbauer
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

785. Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The efficacy of fiscal policy in Japan in the last decade has been a subject of considerable dispute, and the coincidence of mounting deficits and continued stagnation has led some to conclude that fiscal policy was ineffective. This paper finds ample support for the opposite conclusion: exogenous fiscal policy shocks (as derived from a structural vector-autoregression model) had pronounced real effects in Japan. Expansionary fiscal policy was expansionary, and contractionary policy contractionary, consistent with the implications of conventional macroeconomic theory. A historical decomposition shows that Japan's burgeoning public debt stems almost entirely from the recession-caused slowdown in revenue growth, and that fiscal policy was at times procyclical rather than consistently expansionary. Direct examination of the long-run relationship between private saving, taxes, and spending confirms that any Ricardian effects of future public liabilities on saving were insufficient to offset the direct first-order effects of taxes and public expenditures. The passivity of Japanese savers therefore seems to have contributed to the efficacy of fiscal policy; otherwise, some combination of increased saving, capital outflow, and higher interest rates would have diminished its impact.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

786. Moral Hazard and the U.S. Stock Market: Analyzing the “Greenspan Put”?

Author:
Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, and Lei Zhang
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this 'insurance'—referred to as the Greenspan put—is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much 'irrational exuberance' as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

787. Well-Rooted? Land Tenure and the Challenges of Globalization

Author:
Michelle Vosburgh
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
There is increasing pressure in the developing world to implement reforms that will facilitate more efficient land use and capital investment through the use of Western-style surveys, ownership and title registration. Proponents of traditional land systems have opposed these Western reforms by arguing for land's cultural and social importance. This article is a historical exploration of this issue within the context of contemporary globalization. The changing attitudes towards land tenure practices are traced through an examination of the published materials of the United Nations, its agencies and member nations. Historic and contemporary examples illustrate the difficulties of preserving traditional land systems in the face of economic and political integration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy

788. Business Interest Representation and European Commission Fora: A Game Theoretic Investigation

Author:
Andreas Broscheid and David Coen
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The relationship between business and the EU institutions has evolved from its corporatist origins into a complex elite pluralist arrangement centered around industrial fora and policy committees. We view the growth of forum politics as the direct consequence of the unprecedented boom in economic and public interest lobbying in the early 1990s: While the increase in European interest representation provided greater legitimacy for the European integration program, it put a strain on the existing open pluralist European business-government relationship. One of the European Commission's (EC) informal solutions was to create restricted-entry policy fora and select committees, which it hoped would provide fast and reliable decision-making. Employing a formal model of industrial fora and committees, we specify the mechanisms that we believe caused the establishment of the current elite pluralist system of interest representation in the EU. We argue that in the process of establishing selective-entry fora for interest representation, the European Commission acted not only as policy entrepreneur, but also as a political entrepreneur, fostering collective action.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

789. The European Social Model: Coping with the Challenges of Diversity

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
European integration has created a constitutional asymmetry between policies promoting market efficiencies and policies promoting social protection and equality. National welfare states are legally and economically constrained by European rules of economic integration, liberalization, and competition law, whereas efforts to adopt European social policies are politically impeded by the diversity of national welfare states, differing not only in levels of economic development and hence in their ability to pay for social transfers and services but, even more significantly, in their normative aspirations and institutional structures. In response, the "Open Method of Coordination" is now applied being in the social-policy field. It leaves effective policy choices at the national level, but tries to improve these through promoting common objectives and common indicators and through comparative evaluations of national policy performance. These efforts are useful but cannot overcome the constitutional asymmetry. Hence there is reason to search for solutions which must have the character of European law in order to establish constitutional parity with the rules of European economic integration, but which also must be sufficiently differentiated to accommodate the existing diversity of national welfare regimes. The article discusses two such options, "Closer Cooperation" and a combination of differentiated "framework directives" with the Open Method of Coordination.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

790. How Reliable is Pooled Analysis in Political Economy? The Globalization-Welfare State Nexus Revisited

Author:
Bernhard Kittel and Hannes Winner
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Panel data analysis has become very popular in comparative political economy. However, in order to draw meaningful inferences from such data, one has to address specification and estimation issues carefully. This paper aims to demonstrate various pitfalls that typically occur in applied empirical work. To illustrate this, we refer to the debate on the globalization-welfare state nexus. We reexamine a model by Garrett and Mitchell (2001), a leading study in this regard. Utilizing a data set of 17 OECD countries and the time period 1961 to 1993, they find evidence that globalization and partisan composition have a significant impact on the extent of public activity. However, because they apply a dynamic specification in levels, they do not adequately take into account both the dynamic and spherical nature of the data. In contrast, we propose an autoregressive model in first differences that is shown to perform well in statistical terms. Further, we explicitly pay attention to the time pattern of the globalization-welfare state nexus. Substantively, we find evidence that government spending is primarily driven by the state of the domestic economy. Neither partisan effects nor the international economic environment have affected public expenditure considerably.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy