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771. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2002

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in July.Although the incorporated data revisions deepened the depth of the decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession, the decline of this index remains mild by historical standards. The decline from the peak of the coincident index in December 2000 to its trough in November 2001 is only 1.7 percent compared to an average decline of 3.3 percent from peak to trough in the previous six recessions.Modest gains in the coincident index in the last five months reflect the slow pace of the economic recovery. To date, the pre-recession peak of the coincident index has not yet been reached.Although the leading index declined in three of the last six months, its six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the components that are rising, remains above 50 percent. This month's decline in the leading index was primarily caused by weak equity markets and lower consumer expectations.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

772. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2002

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in June.Industrial production had its biggest gain this month since October 1998. This is the most significant factor that helped push the coincident index up in June. The index posted its largest increase in a six-month span since October 2000.The coincident index appears to be gaining momentum. While the index has not surpassed the previous peak in December 2000, it has been increasing or flat since the beginning of the year. To date, the index is less than 0.3 percent away from overtaking the December 2000 peak. Moreover, the gains in the index are well diffused. The one- and six-month diffusion for the coincident index have been above 50 percent for the past four months.Stock prices and consumer expectations are the primary components that are preventing the leading index from continuing its positive trend in June. The recent wave of questionable corporate practices and the lack of measures aimed at addressing them have largely contributed to the weakness in these two components.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

773. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2002

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May.The big jump in real money supply and initial claims for unemployment insurance were largely responsible for the leading index picking up in May. This marks the seventh increase in the leading index in the past eight months.The decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession was relatively modest. To date, the coincident index has only increased 0.4 percent from its lowest point in November 2001 compared to an average increase of 2.4 percent in the first six months of the past six recoveries.While the coincident index has been moderately improving, the lagging index has been steeply declining. This led to the seventh increase in the last eight months in the ratio of coincident to lagging index, a series that has historically led business cycles. This reinforces the continuation of the recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

774. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2002

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in April.Real money supply, which shrank for the second consecutive month, and falling stock prices are the primary components that caused the leading index to drop for the first time since September 2001. The overall signal from the leading index, however, remains one of moderate economic growth.Modest gains in the coincident index in the past five months indicate a slowly recuperating economy. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index underscores this economic recovery posting its biggest gain in 15 months.While improvements in current economic activity have been moderate, the cost of doing business, as represented by the lagging index, has been steeply declining. This points to continued improvement in economic conditions in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

775. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2002

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in March The leading index has been posting strong gains, growing by 2.9 percent from September 2001 to March 2002, and by 2.2 percent for each of the six-month periods ending January and February 2002. The gains would have been more robust had it not been for the weakness in building permits and claims for unemployment insurance Gains in industrial production in the last three months, coupled with a recovery in employment, have helped push the coincident index up. Negative trends in these indicators were largely responsible for the decline in the coincident index last year. US economic recovery appears to be underway. The combination of rising energy prices, the current global instability, and the more cautious consumer and business sectors, however, might slow the pace of economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

776. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2002

Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in February. Even with a flat month-to-month growth in February, the leading index is still up 2.4 percent from its value six months ago in August 2001 and up 3.1 percent from its value a year ago. The modest gains in the coincident index appear to be gaining momentum. Should this trend continue, the trough of the recession would most likely be November 2001, making the most recent economic contraction very short and certainly the mildest in U.S. history. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fifth consecutive month in February. This is another signal that an economic recovery is underway.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

777. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2002

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.6 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in January. The leading index posted a robust 2.2 percent increase from July 2001 to January 2002. This is the fourth consecutive month that the six-month growth rate of the leading index has improved. Meanwhile, the six-month diffusion index, which measures the number of components that are rising, has increased above 50 percent for the first time in 21 months. With a robust leading index, the coincident index appears to be bottoming out in the past two months. The rate of decline of nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production has slowed in the last three and four months respectively while personal income and manufacturing sales have essentially held their ground throughout the recession. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fourth consecutive month in January. This underscores the strength of the leading index and indicates a likely economic recovery, barring any unexpected negative events.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

778. Competing or Complementary Policies? Understanding the Relationship between the NEI and NDI

Author:
Christopher S. Browning
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In recent years the relationship between the European Union and the United States has become increasingly contentious. The principal European critique laments what many Europeans see as America's blatant disregard of global norms and what Chris Patten, the EU's External Affairs Commissioner, has labelled America's "neuralgic hostility to any external authority over its own affairs". In its rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and the establishment of an International Criminal Court, its reluctance to pay its dues to the United Nations, and its eagerness to scrap the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, Europeans often see America as lurching towards a unilateralist stance based on America's military preponderance, whilst multilateral organisations, legal conventions and international norms are pushed aside.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

779. Tax Reforms and "Modell Deutschland": Lessons from Four Years of Red-Green Tax-Policy

Author:
Achim Truger and Wade Jacoby
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
When the red-green (SPD-Bündnis90/DieGrünen) coalition took over the federal government from the Christian-Democrat/Free-Democrat (CDU/CSU/FDP) coalition in 1998, tax reforms had a very high political priority. And, in fact, the government pushed through an astonishing number of far-reaching tax reforms/tax changes within a period of little more than two years. This paper follows two aims. First, it gives a short description of the measures taken and evaluates them with respect to tax theory and the German tax reform debate of the 1990s. Second, it explicitly addresses the question whether the tax changes were influenced by the wish to reform the Modell Deutschland, i.e. whether something substantial was done to change Germany ́s status as a perceived high tax country and if so, whether the attempt was successful. It will be shown that even though the problem of high taxes might have been many observers ́ and, indeed, also the government ́s dominant concern, there was much more to the German debate. The chapter will also ask whether generously cutting taxes was the right thing to do. It demonstrates that under Germany ́s peculiar economic and institutional circumstances at the end of the 1990s, the attempt to cut taxes led to serious problems for fiscal policy, growth, and employment.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

780. Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Europe's single currency is widely invoked as a potential solution to the monetary and exchange rate problems of other regions, including Asia, Latin America, North America and even Africa. This lecture asks whether the Europe's experience in creating the euro is exportable. It argues that the single currency is the result of a larger integrationist project that has political as well as economic dimensions. The appetite for political integration being less in other parts of the world, the euro will not be easily emulated. Other regions will have to find different means of addressing the tension between domestic monetary autonomy and regional integration. Harmonized inflation targeting may be the best available solution.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America