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721. Issues Matter: Social Attributes, Political Predispositions, and Issues Influence Voting

Author:
Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
To clarify the relative impacts of economic and social issues, this study analyzes a 1992 election night survey assessing how social attributes, ideological selfdesignation (liberal, centrist, conservative), party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican), and the issues influenced the voters' choices. Residents of coastal regions, women, paid workers, and first time workers leaned toward a liberal ideology whereas ethnic minorities, older people, and poor people espoused a Democratic identification. Ideology had a direct effect on party identification, which had a very strong direct effect on vote. A latent structure analysis of the issues produced a Left-Center-Right classification. The Right is more ideologically consistent than the Left; Clinton got much of the Center's vote and this led to his victory. The issues, combined and separate, influenced the vote. The economic issue had a stronger effect on the Clinton vote than issues of health care reform, the environment, and lack of concern about a candidate's character. The character issue may be rooted in women's health issues: pro-life respondents may disparage the character of pro-choice candidates. The economic issue had little effect on the Perot vote (relative to that for Bush), whereas reform, the environment, and lack of concern about character distinguished Perot voters from Bush voters. Interactions among the issues indicated that Democratic advocacy of environmental protection somewhat weakened the effect of a negative campaign directed against Clinton's character.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

722. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2003

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 1.0 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in May.The leading index increased sharply in May following a slight gain in April. This increase was largely due to stock prices, real money supply, and consumer expectations, but most other components also increased slightly. It is possible that these two consecutive increases reflect the beginning of an upward trend, thereby ending the flat trend that began in early 2002.The strength in the leading indicators has become more widespread as shown by a pick-up in the diffusion indexes, which measure the proportion of the components that are rising. The one- and six-month diffusion indexes are now at or above fifty percent, up from lower levels earlier in the year. The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, increased modestly in May after holding steady in the previous two months. The coincident index remained essentially flat in the second quarter, but is likely to increase in the second half of the year reflecting the recent gains in the leading index.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

723. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.5 percent in April.After declining in February and March, the leading index increased slightly in April. Since early 2002, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend. This is consistent with real GDP growth continuing to fluctuate around a 2% to 2.5% average annual rate.Despite rebounding financial indicators and consumer expectations, there is still weakness in the labor market and manufacturing indicators. Weakness in these components reflects the recent declines in manufacturing capacity utilization.The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, decreased in April after holding steady in March. The slight decline in the coincident indicators in April is consistent with the weakness in the leading index in the first quarter of 2003.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

724. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2003

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March.The leading index declined for a second consecutive month in March, but the information available so far in April suggests that these declines will not continue. The leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend since December 2001.The flatness in the leading index suggests that U.S. real GDP growth will stay in the 2-3% range for now. As long as economic growth is constrained in this range, the labor market cannot improve.The coincident index has been essentially flat in recent months with gains in income and sales offset by weakness in employment and industrial production. With economic growth at or slightly below potential, the coincident index is unlikely to grow strongly.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

725. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2003

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in February.The leading index fell in February for the first time since September 2002. Uncertainty over war in Iraq, as well as severe winter weather in February, is reflected in the widespread weakness, particularly in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the labor market. Some of these weaknesses have persisted through March.More generally, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend over the past 15 months with a balance between rising and falling components. The index fell in the third quarter of 2002, rose in the fourth quarter, and is now declining again in the first quarter.After flattening in the fourth quarter of last year, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 in January and held that level in February (with a decline in employment offsetting the gains in income, production, and sales). At this point, the leading index is suggesting that economic growth may be on the sluggish side in the second quarter.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

726. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2003

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in January.A sharp drop in claims for unemployment insurance offset the weak expectations of consumers in January. The leading index remains well above its peak prior to the 2001 recession and just below the previous high achieved in May 2002.The coincident index turned up again in January after pausing in the last quarter of 2002. This month's increase in the coincident index, the largest in six months, is consistent with the gains in the leading index late last year and reflects better current conditions in the beginning of this year.Barring any shock or prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East, the leading and coincident indexes point to a more robust pace of economic activity in the coming months.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

727. The Euro Through a Glass Darkly

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
On January 1st, Europe's monetary union will celebrate its fifth anniversary. Congratulations are not exactly pouring in. For going on two years, growth in the countries of the Euro Area has been significantly slower than in the United States. Unemployment over much of the continent remains disturbingly high. The single currency has not been a tonic for Europe's stagnant economy. To the contrary, numerous critics complain, the advent of the euro has only compounded Europe's economic problems. This paper provides a review and analysis of the debate.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

728. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Europe's Stability and Growth Pact)

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental problems for fiscal policy — public enterprises that are too big to fail, unfunded public pension schemes that are too big to ignore, inefficient and costly labor market and social welfare problems, and budget making institutions that create common pool and free-rider problems — rather than on arbitrary numerical indicators like whether the budget deficit is above or below 3 per cent of GDP. It proposes defining an index of institutional reform with, say, a point for pension reform, a point for labor market reform, and a point for revenue sharing reform. Countries receiving three points would be exempt from the Pact's numerical guidelines, since there is no reason to think that they will be prone to chronic deficits. The others, whose weak institutions render them susceptible to chronic deficits, would in contrast still be subject to its warnings, sanctions and fines.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

729. Whither Europe?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Where I live, on the West Coast of the United States, and teach, at the University of California, Europe seems far away. Geographically we are closer to Latin America and Asia. Ethnically, Californians of Hispanic and Asian-American descent are increasingly numerous. Within 20 years, residents of European origin will be a minority; already they are a minority of the undergraduates enrolling at Berkeley. Economically as well, we look to Asia. It is in California where the largest number of container ships arriving from Asia are unloaded, and it is across the Pacific, and in China in particular, that most of those containers originate.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Asia, California, and Latin America

730. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Financial Integration in Europe and Asia)

Author:
Barry Eichengreen and Yung Chul Park
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
One of the most striking aspects of Europe's recent development has been the growth and integration of financial markets. Bond markets have grown explosively since the advent of the euro. Cross border transactions in government bonds have risen sharply with the emergence of the German bund as a benchmark asset, while the volume of corporate bond issues has grown even more dramatically. Securities markets are consolidating around London and Frankfurt, which are competing for the mantle of Europe's dominant financial center. This rapid market integration has raised questions about the viability of Europe's traditional model of bank-based financial intermediation, causing commercial and investment banks to respond with a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, London, and Germany