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671. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea

672. China Brief, National People's Congress: Popularity and power

Author:
Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and M. D. Nalapat
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Newly elected President Hu Jintao and his allies should take heart from the results of the recently concluded First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC).
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

673. China Brief, Osama bin Laden in China

Author:
Willy Lam, Ahmad Lutfi, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Jr. Fisher
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing often downplays the size of its Xinjiang problem for fear of exposing the difficulties it faces containing the “cancer of terrorism.” Since September 11, 2001, Beijing has been forced to reverse this policy due to repeated terrorist attacks. The most recent of these took place on February 25, 2003, when two bombs ripped through two of Beijing's most prestigious universities. The blasts shattered Beijing's long-held claim that it has been winning its war on terror.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Beijing

674. China Brief, Beijing: blockade buster?

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, William C. Triplett, and Dr. Gulshan Dietl
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Will Kim Jong Il just slam down the phone on China's president, Jiang Zemin? That's what Beijing wants us to think. “If Kim tells Jiang he is going to test a nuclear weapon unless Jiang gives him more aid, what do we do? We give him more aid. We don't have a choice,” says one Chinese analyst who has dealt with Pyongyang. “We have some influence, but we don't have the kind of relationship where we can tell Kim what to do. If we tell him to do something, he doesn't listen. If we threaten him, he listens even less. If Jiang called him, he might hang up.”
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

675. China Brief, China's 7-percent solution

Author:
James E. Auer, Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Holmes Liao
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
“If we didn't have China I would be suicidal,” chief Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said this month. “It's the only bright spot in the world economy.” And bright spot it is: Beijing announced that its gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year. The rate is so good that some are wondering whether the People's Republic can become the new engine for world growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

676. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile

Author:
Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, America, and Israel

677. Beyond Greed and Grievance: Policy Lessons from Studies in the Political Economy of Armed Conflict

Author:
Heiko Nitzschke and Karen Ballentine
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This policy report provides a synopsis of the key findings from case studies on the political economy of armed intra-state conflicts, commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil wars (EAC W ). These findings offer lessons for improved policies for conflict prevention and resolution. Combatants' incentives for self-enrichment and/ or opportunities for insurgent mobilization created by access to natural and financial resources were neither the primary nor sole cause of the separatist and non-separatist conflicts analyzed. Nevertheless, extensive combatant self-financing complicated and prolonged hostilities, in some cases creating serious impediments to their resolu-tion. In all cases, however, these factors interacted to varying degrees with long-standing socio-economic and political grievances, inter-ethnic disputes, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable systems of governance. Conflict analysis should avoid "resource reductionist" models in favor of comprehensive approaches that not only account for the complex interrelationship between economic and political dynamics, but also incorporate the political economy of both rebellion and state failure. Improved understanding is required of the role that combatant access to resources can play in shaping a permissive opportunity structure for separatist and non-separatist conflicts relative to other socio-political factors. Different resource endowments affect different sorts of conflicts and benefit combatant parties in distinct ways, depending, inter alia, on the mode of exploitation and how proceeds are managed by the state. "Lootable" resources, such as alluvial diamonds and illegal narcotics are more likely to be implicated in non-separatist insurgencies. They prolong conflict by benefiting rebels and conflict-dependent civilians, compromising battle disci-pline, and by multiplying the number of peace spoilers. "Unlootable" resources, such as oil, gas, and deep-shaft mineral deposits tend to be associ-ated with separatist conflicts, which are often caused by ethno-political grievances over inequitable resource revenue-sharing and exclusionary government policies. Given the importance of lootable natural resources and easily captured diaspora remittances in sustaining many of today's armed conflicts, improved international regulatory efforts to curtail these resource flows are both warranted and necessary. Commodity control regimes need to be strengthened and also complemented by more comprehensive efforts that address the financial flows connected with those resources. However, even the most robust resource control regimes are unlikely to have a decisive or even fully positive impact. Where conflicts are motivated by a mix of political, security, ethnic, and economic factors, curtailing resource flows to combatants may weaken their military capacity but not their resolve to continue fighting. In addition, regulatory regimes may have adverse humanitarian effects by increasing civilian predation by rebels or by stifling civilian incomes. When designing and implementing regulatory regimes, policy-makers need to distinguish between those who exploit armed conflict for profit and power and those who participate in war economies to sustain their civilian livelihoods. The offer of "economic peace dividends" may co-opt belligerents into ceasefires or more formal peace processes. Critically, however, economic inducements are unlikely to achieve these results in the absence of a credible military threat and may risk the creation of "negative peace," where justice and sustainability are deeply compromised and the threat of renewed conflict remains high. Policy-makers need to identify and adequately integrate economic incentives of combatants into a wider set of political and strategic inducements for conflict resolution and peace-building. Today's insurgents increasingly engage in illegal economic activities either directly or through links with international criminal networks. However, insurgency groups have not equivocally transformed into mere criminal organizations as they retain- albeit to varying degrees- military and political goals. While improved interdiction and law enforcement are important policy tools, casting rebellion as a criminal rather than a political phenomenon may risk mischaracterizing legitimate grievances, thereby foreclosing opportu-nities for negotiated resolution, and may lend de facto legitimacy to state actors, regardless of their behavior and role in the conflict. Poor economic governance and state weakness are the critical mediating factors between resource abundance and vulnerability to armed conflict; the first engenders popular grievances, the second makes separatist and non-separatist insurgencies politically and militarily feasible. Policy responses need to focus on structural conflict prevention efforts by, inter alia, designing and supporting tools and strategies for more effective, equitable, and accountable systems of resource management, complemented by longer-term strategies of economic diversifica-tion and poverty reduction. Contemporary intra-state conflicts have strong regional and even global linkages. By increasing the number of potential war profiteers and peace-spoilers and multiplying the points of conflict, these broader dimensions not only affect the character and duration of hostilities, but also complicate the prospects for conflict resolution and post-conflict stability. Both conflict analysis and policymaking need to address these regional dimensions by strengthening the economic management capacities of formal regional organi-zations and ad hoc alliances, complementing- and thus strengthening- national and global conflict management strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Political Economy

678. End Game? Removing Sanctions in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The Anglo-American proposal now before the Security Council calls for an immediate end to UN sanctions. The lifting of sanctions is necessary to clarify procedures for the resumption of Iraqi oil exports and to remove trade and investment barriers that impede Iraq's economic recovery. The stakes in this debate go far beyond the question of freeing trade, however. Fundamental issues of international law also hang in the balance. The verification of Iraq's disarmament, the UN role in Iraq's reconstruction and political transition, the prospects for restraining weapons proliferation in the region, and the fate of hundreds of billions of dollars of debt and compensation claims—all hinge on how sanctions are lifted.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

679. Peer review: a tool for co-operation and change

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Democratic governments want policies that are in the best interest of their citizens. But how can they - and their voters - be sure they are making the right choices? One answer is by learning from the tried and tested experience of others. One of the OECD's core strengths is its ability to offer its 30 members a framework to examine and compare experiences and discuss "best practices" in a host of areas from economic policy to environmental protection or strategies to create jobs.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy

680. Economic Survey of New Zealand, 2003

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Past macroeconomic and structural reforms have been contributing to stronger growth for the last decade. The economy has also become more resilient, weathering the recent global slowdown well. Productivity growth has picked up, although not by enough to have yet moved New Zealand up the OECD income rankings. Its small size and remoteness may be factors, so encouraging global linkages is important, but more remains to be done to strengthen fundamentals. Recent economic performance has been encouraging: buoyant domestic demand has helped maintain output growth in spite of weak trading partner growth, an appreciating exchange rate and a fall in the terms of trade from recent high levels. Monetary policy will need to be vigilant, given that the economy is probably operating above potential and the housing market is strong. In considering fiscal policy options, the focus should be on those that contribute to the growth performance of the economy, whilst remaining firmly based on a prudent assessment of future revenues and of the long-term challenges connected to ageing. In its growth strategy the government appropriately emphasises fostering innovation, skills and talent, and developing global linkages, but it should maintain a level playing field and avoid sector-specific incentives. It should continue to remove regulatory obstacles to investment, particularly in the area of infrastructure, by improving and speeding up the environmental consent process. The decision to resume cutting tariffs is commendable and also furthers the objective of supporting development in poorer countries. Immigration helps to enlarge the pool of available skills and to develop global connections, both of which contribute to enhancing growth potential. Recent changes that focus admis- sions policy more toward skilled and more employ- able immigrants will help, though the temptation to link immigration policy too closely to manpower plan- ning should be resisted. The labour market functions reasonably well, but the government should avoid measures that would reduce flexibility and raise labour costs. The employment rates of marginal groups could be improved by strengthening incentives to move from welfare to work. In short, only through this whole range of efforts to boost productivity growth and improve labour market outcomes can the nation meet its income aspirations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
New Zealand