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641. River at risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with 'normal' years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavoured to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China's Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river's flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

642. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

643. The US Current Account, New Economy Services, and Implications for Sustainability

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This essay considers the implications for sustainability of the US current account of widespread uptake of new economy services around the world. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate new income elasticities for US exports and imports of services that have become increasingly internationally tradable on account of the networked information technologies characteristic of the new economy. These elasticity estimates are then incorporated into a simple model of the US current account. Assumptions on the increase in global growth coming from widespread uptake of new economy services around the world are taken from other sources. The new estimates of income elasticities and the assumptions on global growth yield a trajectory for the US current account deficit that is compared to a base case without increased integration of new economy services in international trade and around the world. The paper concludes that although new economy services reduce the asymmetry in estimated income elasticities and contribute to raising global growth, reasonable estimates of these two structural improvements are not sufficient to stabilize the US current account deficit, in part because the share of new economy services in trade is still small.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

644. U.S.-Latin American Relations: The Prospect

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This series began more than a dozen years ago with an essay titled "U.S.-Latin American Relations: Where Are We Now?" Since this is the last issue of Latin American Outlook, it seems worthwhile to pose the question again.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

645. Brazil: The End of a Honeymoon

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
When Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva was elected president of Brazil in October 2002, popular expectations nearly across the political spectrum were so enormous that he was bound to disappoint someone. Indeed, what is remarkable about the present situation in Brazil is just how popular Lula remains (60 percent approval rating) in spite of a conservative fiscal policy, a modest uptick in the unemployment figures, a willingness to expend valuable political capital on pension and tax reforms, a financial scandal involving his chief of staff, and an embarrassing threat to expel a New York Times journalist.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
New York, Brazil, South America, and Central America

646. The Last Days of Bolivia?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Last October Bolivia experienced a social and political upheaval that forced the resignation of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada and shook the capital, La Paz, to its very foundations. The headquarters of all the political parties supporting the government were burned to the ground; toll booths and other symbols of government authority were destroyed or disabled; even the Ministry of Sustainable Development—a magnificent Art Deco building that once housed the business offices of the Patiño tin empire—was gutted. Although a measure of normality has been restored since then, there is no certainty that stability is here to stay. As recently as late April, the lobby and lower floors of the congressional office building were demolished by a suicide bomber, and the successor regime—led by Sánchez de Lozada's former vice president Carlos Mesa—is attempting to buttress its shaky legitimacy through a series of tawdry gimmicks. These include attempts to govern without parties; denying natural gas to Chile, Bolivia's hated neighbor; threatening to overturn long-standing contracts with international energy companies; and brandishing a plebiscite which may well take the country—or at least an important part of it—outside the world economy. Republics do not normally commit suicide, but Bolivia may be an exception. If current trends continue, we may witness the first major alteration of the South American political map in more than a hundred years.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Bolivia

647. El Salvador Stays the Course

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The March presidential election in El Salvador, in which the conservative ARENA (Alianza Republicana Nacionalista) Party won its fourth consecutive victory in fifteen years, invites serious consideration and analysis. At a time when many governments in Latin America are being voted out of office by anti-establishment (and sometimes, anti-party) candidates, and attacks on "neo-liberalism" and globalization are increasingly the order of the day, El Salvador seems to be swimming strongly against the tide. What lies behind this anomaly?
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador

648. Where Does Haiti Go from Here?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The collapse of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's government in Haiti and his unseemly flight out of the country may have come as a surprise to Americans and others who were not watching closely. It could not have been unexpected by those who were. Haitian history tends to repeat itself, and after a long detour, the circle closed once again. Even the sudden occupation of the country by a multinational force headed by the U.S. Marines is not without precedent. The big question is whether this time the cycle of failure will be broken.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

649. Facing Up to the Conflict in Colombia

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Anyone who follows the Latin American news—even out of the corner of one eye—must be aware of the fact that Colombia, one of South America's largest and most strategically and economically important nations, has been bogged down for more than a decade in a seemingly intractable civil conflict. The term "civil war" is a misnomer in this case, to the extent that it suggests that roughly equal forces are confronting one another. The Colombian case is less dramatic than this but far more complex. On one hand there is the Colombian state and most ordinary citizens—some 40 million of them; on the other, two guerrilla groups, the most important of which, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), can count on roughly 17,000 armed militants. The failure of the Colombian state to provide basic security from the guerrillas, particularly in rural areas, led during the last two decades to the more or less spontaneous creation of the so-called Autonomous Defense Forces—paramilitary forces, or "paras," for short—whose ranks today number 13,000. While the FARC and other self-styled guerrilla formations claim to be fighting for a Marxist revolutionary project, their ideology is largely decorative. In fact they are thugs for whom violence is a way of life and has been for many years. They specialize in kidnappings and murders. The FARC alone has kidnapped more than a thousand people—politicians (including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt), soldiers, and police, presumably to win release of about five hundred militants captured by government forces. What makes the FARC an enduring phenomenon is not that it enjoys much popular support, but that, because it engages in drug trafficking on a monumental scale, it is perhaps the most economically self-sufficient insurgency in the history of Latin America.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

650. Venezuela: Nearing the Moment of Truth

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On December 19, forces opposed to President Hugo Chávez turned over thousands of petitions to the National Electoral Council (CNE) requesting a referendum that would determine whether the Venezuelan leader will remain in office until his present term ends in 2006. Theoretically the council should have rendered a judgment on the authenticity of the signatures within thirty days. As this Outlook goes to press, however, the verdict remains unclear. The delay is perhaps understandable: a fateful step in Venezuela's future hinges upon the outcome.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America