621. Economic Survey of Norway, 2004
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- The short-term outlook for Norway is good. Helped by global recovery, growth could proceed at above potential rates for a while, especially as inflation is well below target and there is some cyclical slack in the labour market. Interest rates are low, and fiscal stimulus needs to be withdrawn. Indeed, it will be important to rein back spending over the next few years in order to get back onto the self-imposed track of permissible spending of oil revenues that is consistent with notions of intergenerational fairness. In the longer term, the case for continuing fiscal restraint is even stronger. Reflecting both demographic factors and the maturing of the system, public spending on pensions will rise considerably over the next decades, even if the major reforms now under discussion are quickly implemented. In the future, growth of living standards will have to rely primarily on increases of productivity and employment in the non-oil private business sector. To maintain vigour in the non-oil economy, reforms in both labour and product markets, and in social policies and transfer programmes are called for. There are important interdependencies among policies in these areas and it is unlikely that success will be achieved without advancing with comprehensive reforms. More flexibility is desirable in wage setting, particularly in the public sector. Proposed changes in the fields of education and training will raise skill levels, but value for money needs to be an important criterion when prioritising the programmes. Competition should be strengthened through regulatory reform and a more active policy stance: proposed amendments to strengthen the enforcement framework are an opportunity to make competition policy more central, and should include an independent appellate body. State ownership and subsidies to agriculture should be reduced. Norway's comprehensive social programmes ensure that poverty is virtually non-existent, and a strong work ethic and a high level of social trust led to comparatively little abuse in the past. However, the very rapid rises in numbers on disability pensions and on sick leave suggest that stricter controls are needed. Advancing the reform efforts suggested above will be necessary to harness the more efficient use of resources, thereby raising non-oil potential output and ensuring that Norway maintains a high standard of living in the years to come.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Norway