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601. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?

Author:
Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang

602. China Brief,China's Reaction to America's Iraq Imbroglio

Author:
You Ji, Igor Rotar, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has been at pains not to appear to be gloating over the American quagmire in Iraq. Yet in terms of geopolitical calculus, there is little doubt Beijing sees America's worsening problems in Iraq as beneficial to China's global standing, diplomatically and militarily. Capitalizing on fissures in the international community over Iraq and America's war on terror, China has strengthened ties with key members of the European Union and the United Nations in an effort to counterbalance U.S. hegemony. Meanwhile, Chinese experts' scrutiny of the exploits as well as challenges of American and Allied Forces in Iraq will have a big impact on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) ambitious modernization drive.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Europe, Israel, and Beijing

603. China Brief, Chen shui-bian after the election: lame duck or phoenix?

Author:
Bernard D. Cole, Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, and Harvey Stockwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing's unusually cautious response to Taiwan's disputed presidential polls shows that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has yet to come to a consensus on how to deal with four more years of administration under 'splittis' President Chen Shui-bian. This, despite the fact that with the country's fastgrowing economic, military and diplomatic clout, Beijing would seem to enjoy unquestioned superiority over the increasingly divided island of Taiwan.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, and Beijing

604. China Brief,Cross-Strait Relations In Taiwan's Presi - Dential Elections

Author:
Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, Enzio von Pfeil, and Ashok Kapur
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
No military action for the Taiwan Strait--not even psychological warfare oriented missile drills such as those undertaken in late 1995 and early 1996--is being planned by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for the coming year or so. And this will be true whether President Chen Shui-bian or his challenger, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan, wins in the hotly contested polls on March 20. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is readying hardball solutions to the reunification problem for the medium-term.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Taiwan

605. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

606. Tax Effort and Tax Potential of State Governments in Mexico: A Representative Tax System

Author:
Horacio Sobarzo
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, Mexico has modified its intergovernmental fiscal structure from a very centralized system to a distorted scenario where state governments have gained substantial expenditure functions and most of the taxation responsibilities have remained in the federal government. It is argued that to move towards a more fiscally responsible scenario, some decentralization on the taxation side is needed. In this context, by constructing a representative tax system (RTS), this paper evaluates tax effort and tax potential in Mexico. The results are a useful input for policy decision making, not only in the event of future tax decentralization attempts but also in designing a new transfer scheme. The results are also the first RTS constructed for the Mexican case, and show that regional data in Mexico is gradually improving. Also, while the results shed some light as to which taxes could potentially be decentralized, the article warns about the fact that regional disparities in the country may well be a limitation on the extent to which taxes can be decentralized.
Topic:
Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

607. Does Lootable Wealth Breed Disorder? A Political Economy of Extraction Framework

Author:
Richard Snyder
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article proposes a political economy of extraction framework that accounts for political order and state collapse as alternative outcomes in the face of lootable wealth. Different types of institutions of extraction can be built around lootable resources—with divergent effects on political stability. If rulers are able to forge institutions of extraction that give them control over the revenues generated by lootable resources, then these resources can contribute to the maintenance of political order by providing the income with which to govern. In contrast, the breakdown or absence of such institutions increases the risk of civil war by making it easier for rebels to get income. The framework is used to explain two puzzling cases that experienced sharply contrasting political trajectories in the face of lootable resources: Sierra Leone and Burma. A focus on institutions of extraction provides a stronger understanding of the wide range of political possibilities—from chaos, through dictatorship, to democracy—in resource-rich countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Burma and Sierra Leone

608. Institutional Foundations of Economic Freedom: A time-series cross-section analysis

Author:
Xavier de Vanssay, Vincent Hildebrand, and Zane A. Spindler
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
Using time-series cross-section analysis, we provide additional empirical validation for the principal-agent model developed by Adserà, et al. (2003). In our innovation, efficient economic policy is proxied by “economic freedom” from the Fraser Institute database and “political institutions” are proxied by variables from the Database of Political Institutions. Our results suggest that the more credible the threat of removal from office, the more government officials will pursue efficient economic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and Political Economy

609. Political Finance Regulation in Guatemala: A Comparative Survey

Author:
Kevin Casas-Zamora
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
As in most Latin American countries, the funding of political activities has only recently become a matter of serious concern in Guatemala. Long known for its chronic political instability, the country has limited experience in the observance of basic democratic practices such as regular and reasonably free and fair elections. Even today, the regulation of political finance remains under the shadow of other pressing and as yet unresolved political issues such as the extraordinary weakness of parties, the consistently high abstention rates and the practical disenfranchisement of the indigenous majority.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

610. Economic Survey of Canada, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Economic performance has been solid, and macroeconomic policies are appropriate. The economy is expected to expand by close to 3.5 per cent in 2005, and the output gap will soon be closed. Monetary stimulus should gradually be removed and the fiscal policy stance needs to remain neutral. The Canadian dollar appreciated sharply in 2003 and is now probably not far from its fundamental value. Canadian firms will need to continue to adjust by making efforts to improve productivity to maintain competitiveness. Policy makers should remain focussed on policies that enhance productivity growth across all sectors. With a sound macroeconomic framework and structural policies that are mostly conducive to a well functioning economy, the country is well placed to meet the challenges of an ageing population, namely, maintaining rises in living standards through strong rates of productivity growth and policies to attenuate the expected fall in hours worked on average across the whole population, and ensuring that public finances are sustainable, especially given pressures on health care outlays.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America