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201. Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2012

Author:
Mélanie Albaret, Hélène Combes, Olivier Compagnon, Olivier Dabène, Lorenza Belinda Fontana, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Charles-André Goulet, Nordin Lazreg, Kevin Parthenay, Gustavo Pastor, Thomas Posado, Darío Rodriguez, Camila Minerva Rodriguez Tavárez, and Jérôme Sgard
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Le Political Outlook 2012 de l’Amérique latine est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site internet www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clefs de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires à cette publication sont disponibles sur le site.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Markets, Political Economy, Politics, History, Finance, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, Latin America, Bolivia, and El Salvador

202. The Politics of Employment Policy Reform in the Gulf States (Les enjeux des réformes des politiques de l’emploi dans les monarchies du Golfe)

Author:
Laurence Louer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the first decade of the 21st century the Gulf States undertook reforms of their social policies based on the generous redistribution of hydrocarbon profits. One of the elements of the redistribution was to guarantee of employment. Beginning in the 1990s rising unemployment indicated that the traditional employment policies were ineffective, generating social tensions as evidenced in the "Arab spring". The goal of the reforms is to move nationals into salaried jobs in the private sector, currently held largely by foreign workers. The change is strongly opposed by business executives and local entrepreneurs. Having become accustomed to inexpensive foreign workers they object to the increased costs entailed by the reforms. The royal families are thus obliged to negotiate between the interests of the private sector, often aligned with their own, and the dissatisfaction of the young, the group most impacted by unemployment and the key players in the protests that erupted in 2011 in Bahrain, Saudi-Arabia and Oman.
Topic:
Civil Society, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Arab Spring, Social Policy, Identities, State, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

203. Can Latin American Oil Companies Free Themselves from the Legacy of Nationalization? (Les compagnies pétrolières latino-américaines peuvent-elles s'affranchir de l'héritage de la nationalisation ?)

Author:
Isabelle Rousseau
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Latin America's national oil companies, created at various times during the twentieth century, have each evolved in a different way. The two main companies – Petroleos de Mexico (Pemex) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) – provide excellent illustrations of the rich diversity of organizational and industrial development. Many factors – such as the importance of earth quakes – explain the diversity. Nevertheless, the role of governments during the period of nationalizations is key. It was then that the relationships between the owners of natural resources, public operators, regulators, the finance ministries, and international operators were defined. This process shaped the companies' institutional structures (path dependency) and set the parameters for future entrepreneurial dynamism. The path by which each of these enterprises developed continues to affect their culture as evidenced by the recent reforms which attempted to restructure Pemex and PDVSA.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and Mexico

204. What is the (New) Deal with Fragile States?

Author:
Wim Naudé
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Some states lack the capability and/or the willingness to progressively promote the shared development of their citizens and are particularly vulnerable to external shocks and internal conflicts. They have been described as "fragile states". The poor governance and lack of state capabilities in around 45 fragile states pose a threat to global security and development. Effective international partnerships are necessary to pull them out of low-development–high-conflict traps. The "New Deal on Fragile States" announced on 30 November 2011 at the Fourth High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan by the g7+ (see "The International Dialogue on Peace-building and State-building and the g7+" Box) is the most recent initiative to foster such partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Development, Political Economy, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State

205. Toward a Single, Global Digital Economy: The First Report of the Aspen Institute IDEA Project

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Internet is the most robust medium of information exchange in history. Two billion people are now connected, and at current growth rates everyone with Internet access will join the Internet community within a decade. Barring technological and political disruptions, the world's populace will then be on a single common digital platform. The global medium can provide unparalleled personal well-being, economic growth and beneficial social change.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, Political Economy, Science and Technology, Communications, and Regime Change

206. A Eurosceptic big bang: Finland's EU policy in hindsight of the 2011 elections

Author:
Kaisa Korhonen and Juha Jokela
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Finnish parliamentary elections in spring 2011 were marked by a landslide victory for the Eurosceptic (True) Finns Party. Such an unprecedented upswing for anti-integrationist voices was expected to reshape Finland's EU policy. The Finns Party did not join the government, however, and the party has mainly influenced Finnish EU policymaking while in opposition, and indirectly through public opinion-building. While outright anti-integrationist rhetoric remains on the margins of national public debate, more critical approaches to EU politics have become increasingly pronounced. Political parties have, to varying degrees, adapted their rhetoric and policies to the changing environment. Importantly, the broad consensus on EU affairs in Finland has broken down, at least temporarily. The EU has featured high on the agendas of the recent election campaigns as well as in opposition politics. This has affected Finland's official position too. It has moved in a more cautious and self-contained direction, although the country remains a pro-integrationist member state.
Topic:
Democratization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

207. On the road to a true Economic and Monetary Union? The challenges of fiscal federalism and democratic legitimacy

Author:
Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Lessons learned from the current economic and financial crisis pose great challenges for the EU concerning the future development of the EMU. Through the recent changes the limits of a mere coordination of economic policies have been reached and a debate about turning the system into a true Economic and Monetary Union must be launched. A further strengthening of the EU's power in economic and fiscal policies would require a clearer move in the direction of fiscal federalism, that is, a more balanced relationship between the Union's budget and those of the member states. It would also require the finalization of the Union's democratic system along the lines of a federal political order. The divided character of the currency union presents significant difficulties for its further deepening and democratization.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

208. Russia on the Move

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin, Maria Lipman, Alexey Malashenko, and Nikolay Petrov
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
To the casual observer, Russia is stuck where it was a decade ago. Vladimir Putin has once again assumed the presidency and any semblance of organized political opposition largely faded away after the March elections. But popular protests persist, and the existing politico-economic system can no longer adequately address the shifting social realities inside the country or the challenges of the global environment. The system must change if Russia is to develop further, and Moscow's policies of economic modernization alone are neither sufficient nor possible without political reform.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

209. The Economic Agenda of the Islamist Parties

Author:
Ibrahim Saif and Muhammad Abu Rumman
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Islamist parties have gained newfound political power across the Arab world. Four parties in particular—Tunisia's Ennahda, Egypt's Freedom and Justice Party, Morocco's Justice and Development Party, and Jordan's Islamic Action Front—have either made a strong showing at the ballot box or are expected to in upcoming elections. Their successes have dredged up fears about their political and social ambitions, with worries ranging from the enforcement of sharia law to the implications for Western tourists on these countries' beaches. Meanwhile, the parties' economic platforms have largely been overlooked, despite the serious challenges that lie ahead for the economies of the Arab world.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Islam, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

210. India and Europe in a Multipolar World

Author:
Bernd von Muenchow-Pohl
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The image of India as an emerging power is widely held, but there is equal reason to see the European Union as an emerging power, too, even at the risk of raising eyebrows. Like India, the EU seeks to become a global political player on top of being a great economic power. As the global power dynamic shifts, both are trying to define their roles in an emerging multipolar world. The question arises whether closer cooperation can help the EU and India to achieve their ambitions. Though they have committed to a strategic partnership, in its present state the EU-India relationship has been likened to a “loveless arranged marriage.” With each increasingly absorbed by domestic problems, the prospects for closer ties are fading, notwithstanding the opportunities that would be lost.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Asia