Search

Begin New Search Topic Pandemic Publication Year within 25 Years

11. Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

Author:
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

12. Covid-19: implications for the Indo-Pacific

Author:
David Engel and Alex Bristow
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
As we approach four years since the first cases of Covid-19 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the world seems relatively familiar again, albeit an increasingly scary place because of war in Europe, accelerating climate change, and the unhealthy nexus between new technologies and authoritarian coercion by Beijing and others. Within this ‘polycrisis’, Covid-19 now feels like a secondary concern. But the world remains unprepared for the next pandemic, which the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned could come soon and be even more deadly. This report provides a comprehensive stocktake of the lessons our region should draw from Covid-19 at precisely the time we risk forgetting the pandemic’s significance, not just for health but also for the resilience of our societies, economies and international rules-based trade and security. This collection of papers by Japanese and Australian academics, journalists and think tankers explores varying aspects of the regional impact of the pandemic, including on trade, foreign affairs and security. The collection includes detailed case studies on Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as thematic analysis at the regional and multilateral levels. We hope the compilation is useful for policy makers and decision makers throughout the region, in particular the examination of the systemic links between different forms of crisis preparedness, the sovereign resilience of smaller powers against great power influence, and the effect of Covid-19 in accelerating pre-pandemic regional trends, including mounting challenges to liberal democracy. This report was produced with funding support from the Japanese Government.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific

13. Securing Civilisation Against Catastrophic Pandemics

Author:
Anjali Gopal, William Bradshaw, Vaishnav Sunil, and Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Pandemic security aims to safeguard the future of civilisation from exponentially spreading biological threats. Despite the world's failure to contain SARS-CoV-2, the existence of far more lethal and transmissible pathogens that afflict animals and growing access to increasingly powerful biotechnologies, no analyses of worst-case scenarios and potential defences have been published. Here we outline two distinct mechanisms by which pandemic pathogens transmissible between humans could cause societal collapse. In a "Wildfire" pandemic, the justifiable fear of a lethal and highly contagious respiratory agent released in multiple travel hubs leads to the breakdown of essential services. In a "Stealth" pandemic, a rapidly spreading virus with a long incubation period analogous to HIV infects most of humankind. We explain why current pandemic preparedness measures such as rapid vaccines and N95 masks will reliably fail against these threats and outline novel strategies and technologies capable of safeguarding civilisation.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The Plight of the Developing Economies

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation and slowing down growth in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to key (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: How close are the parallels between the current conjuncture and the 1970s? What are the differences? Does what is currently happening already amount to stagflation? Can central bankers engineer a ‘soft landing’ of their economies or are we already poised for a deep (global) recession? What are the likely spill- over effects of monetary tightening in the US on the emerging economies? What, if anything, can we learn from the monetary and fiscal policy experiences and policy mistakes of the 1970s? And, finally, are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down?
Topic:
Economics, War, Conflict, Inflation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. The Western Mediterranean Transport and Logistics Sector in the Post-Covid-19 Era: Seizing New Opportunities, Accelerating Transitions

Author:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 and its socioeconomic consequences have been affecting trade and supply chains worldwide for the last two years. Although global connectivity has been reduced, the transport and logistics sector has played a key role to ensure the continuous provision of food and goods in all regions of the world. This crisis has been somewhat perceived as an accelerator of the processes that were and will continue to affect the sector in the upcoming years: the digital transformation, the sustainability transition, and the growing awareness of the vulnerabilities of global value chains. This emerging context poses significant challenges to the sector together with great opportunities in a region such as the Western Mediterranean. Understanding them to design the adequate policies that will allow the transport and logistics sector to play its crucial role as a driver for regional integration and prosperity is essential.
Topic:
Economics, Transportation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

16. The Role of Egyptian Female Entrepreneurship in the Digital Era post-COVID-19

Author:
Doaa Salman Abdou
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The current “cloud revolution” accelerates the digitalisation of economies as it expands business opportunities, thus boosting the economy and enhancing business activities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, digital economy countries had the opportunity to sustain many activities remotely, while many developing countries fell into poverty and were forced to face a surge of unemployment. There were more unemployed females than males, and the female participation rate was lower than for males. Digitalisation can accelerate female entrepreneurs’ participation in the labour market and allow them to increase their productivity growth. It can therefore help increase their standard of living, decreasing poverty and creating economic stability (Van Praag & Versloot, 2007). COVID-19 challenges the dreams of many entrepreneurs across the globe to sustain their business using technology but even more so in developing countries as their access to technology is lower than in developed countries because it is not affordable and in some rural areas not available. In this context, not all countries have been affected in the same way. As a result of the epidemic, women’s employment decreased the most throughout the Americas (a reduction of 9.4%). The Arab States saw the second-largest drop in the number of employed women, with women’s employment falling by 4.1% and men’s by 1.8% between 2019 and 2020 (ILO, 2021). The pandemic widens the gender gap rather than closing it. Such a shock urges a reduction of the digital divide, as it is considered a necessary tool and not a luxury. Such a tool can keep businesses going and help them recover after the global shock, especially for women who had to stay at home with their children. Women, youths and people with medium and low skills experienced a decline in employment worldwide in 2020. Female workers were disproportionately affected compared to male workers, with unemployment accounting for 38.9% of total employment before the COVID-19 crisis but rising to 47.6% of the total workforce (ILO, 2020). The lockdown due to the pandemic pushed women to learn how to benefit from digitalisation as it has a direct link to both poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment, especially in developing countries, where it plays a significant role in gender equality and economic development.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

17. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:
Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:
Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

18. COVID-19 and Violent Actors in the Global South: An Inter- and Cross-Regional Comparison

Author:
André Bank, Yannick Deepen, Julia Grauvogel, and Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This Working Paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and non-state violent actors in the Global South. We provide an ACLED-based interregional map-ping of trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Cross-regional case comparisons shed further light on the similarities and differences of countries characterised by long-term armed conflict (Colombia, Iraq, Nigeria) or having transitioned from authoritarianism but facing inequality and political exclusion (Chile, Tunisia, South Africa). We identify a temporal variation: Initially, state armed actors’ new responsibilities to implement COVID-19–related control measures led to an increase in violence against civilians, but over time there was a decrease. We also find that COVID-19 had an early demobilising effect vis-à-vis protest and mob violence, a consequence of lockdowns and mobility restrictions. Yet, protest has quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, underlining continued – sometimes aggravated –grievances. Moreover, different violent actors’ responses to the pandemic were decisively shaped by their respective conflict histories
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Protests, Violence, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global South

19. Sustaining Civic Space in Times of COVID-19: Global Trends

Author:
Jasmin Lorch, Monika Onken, and Janjira Sombatpoonsiri
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that COVID-19 and related legal restrictions invariably reinforce a global trend of shrinking civic space. We argue that the legal guarantee of civil liberties is not the sole factor configuring civic space. Instead, civic space is best understood as being configured by three interacting components: 1) the legal guarantee (or restriction) of civil liberties, that is, rights-based space; 2) socio-economic needs that configure needs-induced space; and, 3) civil society activism. During the pandemic needs-induced space for civil society has emerged both from the health crisis and because restrictive government responses have had severe socio-economic side effects on people’s livelihoods. These socio-economic conditions, along with civic discontent over restrictions on civil liberties, have driven civil society engagement in the form of both relief and advocacy/protest activism. Along with the structural condition of needs-induced space, this civil society activism has worked to sustain civic space.
Topic:
Civil Society, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. April 2022 Issue

Author:
Stephen Hummel, F. John Burpo, Jeremy Hershfield, Andrew Kick, and Kevin J. O'Donovan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed nearly one million American lives. It has upended many more and produced disastrous consequences around the world. But it could have been even more catastrophic had Western nations and companies not developed highly effective vaccines. As the world hopefully begins to emerge from the pandemic, it is important to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published next month. The feature article of this volume anticipates how bioterrorists may exploit tunable viral agents in a new age of bioterrorism. The article is authored by Major Stephen Hummel and Colonel F. John Burpo with Lieutenant Colonel Jeremy Hershfield, Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Kick, Kevin O’Donovan, and Colonel Jason Barnhill. They write: “Components of a disease such as transmissibility, lethality, and the infectious window can potentially be modified for desired tactical, operational, or strategic effects. While this capability is currently beyond the skills and knowledge of the biology enthusiast, a trained individual would possess such skills and knowledge, though they may lack the necessary material and infrastructure support. Hence, it is necessary to develop and maintain capabilities that can respond to a variety of pathogens and possible effects.” This issue features an interview with Lawrence Kerr, who until his retirement from government service earlier this year was the Director of the Office of Pandemics and Emerging Threats in the Office of Global Affairs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. We also interview Brad Ringeisen, the Executive Director of the Innovative Genomics Institute. Before his retirement from government service in July 2020, Dr. Ringeisen served as the Director of the Biological Technologies Office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Filippa Lentzos, Gregory Koblentz, and Joseph Rodgers argue “the biological risk landscape is rapidly evolving and presents significant new challenges to preventing the accidental, reckless, or malicious misuse of biology. At the same time, oversight systems to ensure that life sciences research is conducted safely, securely, and responsibly are falling behind. An urgent overhaul to realign biorisk management with contemporary risks is needed.”
Topic:
Health, Counter-terrorism, Risk, Pandemic, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus