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621. Six-Party Talks: Defining A Realistic Roadmap for Success

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa, Scott Snyder, and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The forthcoming resumption of Six-Party Talks to eliminate nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula is expected to build on the Joint Statement of principles released at the end of the last round on September 19, 2005. While some have criticized the vagueness of the Joint Statement, it represents the first tangible progress in identifying common principles and objectives in two years of sporadic meetings. If North Korea has indeed made a “strategic decision” to abandon its nuclear weapons programs – a thesis still to be tested – it may provide a basis for future progress. For this to occur, however, a more specific negotiating road map and implementing process must be developed. It is important to assess where the current guidelines might lead and to identify the "commitments for commitments" and "actions for actions" that might be envisioned as next steps.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

622. Nuclear proliferation in the 21st century: will multilateral diplomacy work?

Author:
Martin Rodbro, Martin Fernando Jakobsen, and Line Juul Bay
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
For 35 years the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been the very cornerstone of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. The treaty has proven to be a strong bulwark against prolific spreading of the materials and technologies necessary to produce the most destructive weapons the world has ever known.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons

623. Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies

Author:
Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
The regime of Kim Jong-Il has been called "mad," "rogue," even, by the Wall Street Journal, the equivalent of an "unreformed serial killer." Yet, despite the avalanche of television and print coverage of the Pyongyang government’s violation of nuclear nonproliferation agreements and existing scholarly literature on North Korean policy and security, this critical issue remains mired in political punditry and often misleading sound bites. Victor Cha and David Kang step back from the daily newspaper coverage and cable news commentary and offer a reasoned, rational, and logical debate on the nature of the North Korean regime. Coming to the issues from different perspectives—Kang believes the threat posed by Pyongyang has been inflated and endorses a more open approach, while Cha is more skeptical and advocates harsher measures—the authors together have written an essential work of clear-eyed reflection and authoritative analysis. They refute a number of misconceptions and challenge much faulty thinking that surrounds the discussion of North Korea, particularly the idea that North Korea is an irrational nation. Cha and Kang contend that however provocative, even deplorable, the Pyongyang government’s behavior may at times be, it is not incomprehensible or incoherent. Neither is it "suicidal," they argue, although crisis conditions could escalate to a degree that provokes the North Korean regime to "lash out" as the best and only policy, the unintended consequence of which are suicide and/or collapse. Further, the authors seek to fill the current scholarly and policy gap with a vision for a U.S.-South Korea alliance that is not simply premised on a North Korean threat, not simply derivative of Japan, and not eternally based on an older, "Korean War generation" of supporters. This book uncovers the inherent logic of the politics of the Korean peninsula, presenting an indispensable context for a new policy of engagement. In an intelligent and trenchant debate, the authors look at the implications of a nuclear North Korea for East Asia and U.S. homeland security, rigorously assessing historical and current U.S. policy, and provide a workable framework for constructive policy that should be followed by the United States, Japan, and South Korea if engagement fails to stop North Korean nuclear proliferation.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and International Security
Political Geography:
North Korea and Korean Peninsula
Publication Identifier:
9780231505338
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

624. Global Cleanout: An Emerging Approach to the Civil Nuclear Material Threat

Author:
Philipp C. Bleek
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Terrorists and states hostile to the United States and its allies are pursuing nuclear weapons. The acquisition of even primitive nuclear weapons by terrorists willing to sacrifice their own lives to kill thousands of civilians would be catastrophic, while nuclear proliferation to hostile states poses grave dangers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

625. The Political Economy of Nuclear Energy in the United States

Author:
Pietro S. Nivola
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A tendency among commentators, even experts like Bernard L. Cohen, the author of the sentence above, is to regard the complicated story of nuclear energy in the United States as exceptionally troubled and frustrating. The root cause of the troubles and frustrations, moreover, is commonly thought to be more political than economic. The promise of nuclear power in the United States is said to have been dimmed primarily by an eccentrically risk-averse public and an unusually hostile regulatory climate. Practically nowhere else, it is said, have political and legal institutions been so uncooperative. Supposedly the central governments of most other advanced countries have lent far more support to their nuclear industries. And because those governments are assumed to be more aggressive in combating pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, surely “the rest of the world” has been doing much more than America to level the playing field for the development of nuclear energy. But just how valid is this conventional picture?
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

626. Nuclear Deterrence, Preventive War, and Counterproliferation

Author:
Jeffrey Record
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During the Cold War, the principal function of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attack. Nuclear deterrence was not considered a tool of nonproliferation. The primary mechanisms for halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons were the nonproliferation regime established by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 and the U.S. extension of nuclear deterrence to states that might otherwise have sought security through the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States

627. Prospects Brighten for Long-term Peace in South Asia

Author:
Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Ever since 1998, the year of India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, many commentators have argued that, in the absence of U.S. intervention, the two nations are headed for armed conflict that will likely end in nuclear war. The logic underlying this view is twofold. First, that religious radicalism—defined as the participation in political and/or military activities by groups in the name of religion—has become sufficiently powerful in Pakistan to make ongoing support for the Kashmir insurgency inevitable. Second is that India's concurrent growth of nationalism and religious radicalism, as well as a rise in economic power, will make the state less willing to tolerate Pakistan's support for insurgency in Kashmir. Against this seemingly inevitable clash, Pakistani President Musharraf is viewed as a lonely holdout against the forces of religious radicalism in Pakistan. U.S. support is therefore argued to be critical for sustaining Musharraf, whether through political support for Pakistan's policies in Kashmir, or economic support. This paper reaches a different conclusion: that peace is about to “break out” between India and Pakistan. Our conclusion is based on the following analysis. First, Islamic radicalism in Pakistan relies (and has always relied) on the army to survive, as it lacks sufficient popularity to influence state policy through political parties or popular agitation. Second, the army has previously supported Islamic radicalism tactically, but not ideologically, providing such support only when it has perceived the state to be in crisis. Contrary to a common view, the elections of 2002 were no different in this respect. Third, Hindu radicalism in India, though gaining in both popular and political support, is insufficiently popular to support irrational aggression against Pakistan. At the same time, India's improved economic prospects have influenced its rulers to favor accommodation with Pakistan. Third, the outcomes of recent elections in India and Pakistan have shifted the Pakistani army's strategic priorities toward negotiating a civilian-military balance, and away from destabilizing civilian politics through “crisis-mode” tactics that have included support for Islamic radicalism.
Topic:
Nationalism, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Asia, and Kashmir

628. Eliminating Adversary WMD: Lessons for Future Conflicts

Author:
Rebecca K.C. Hersman and Todd M. Koca
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
As tensions between Iraq and the United States worsened in mid-to-late 2002 and as preparations began for Operation Iraqi Freedom, policymakers and military planners began to wrestle with the challenges posed by Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Indeed, Iraqi defiance and deception in the face of United Nations (UN) sanctions, coupled with growing fears of WMD transfer to terrorist organizations—most prominently al Qaeda—were two primary reasons for confronting Saddam Hussein. Just as in the first Gulf War in 1991, deterring and defending against possible Iraqi use of WMD against coalition forces were key concerns for planners. However, as the crisis escalated in 2002, Department of Defense (DOD) planners began to foresee another challenge: how to remove comprehensively and permanently the threat of Iraqi WMD, not just to U.S. troops but also to the Middle East region and the world.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

629. Tactical nuclear weapons: Europe's redundant weapons of mass destruction

Author:
Hugh Beach
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
THIS PAPER EXAMINES the case for the withdrawal of US tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) from European soil on the following grounds: The new strategic context makes redundant the original purpose of these weapons' deployment. There is a concern that these weapons will play a part in the new US doctrine of pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons to achieve military objectives. There is a need to buttress the non-proliferation regime through reducing the circumstances in which nuclear weapons might be used rather than undermining that regime by devising new purposes for nuclear weapons. The removal of all TNW from nuclear arsenals(especially those in the former Soviet Union) would constitute an important act of disarmament that would increase international and regional security. Their removal would also avoid the enormous (opportunity) cost of sustaining these deployments through planned modernisation of storage facilities. Their removal would be another step towards fulfilling the political commitments made by the US and the other established nuclear powers under Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to eliminate their nuclear arsenals.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

630. Crude Nukes on the Loose?

Author:
Morton Bremer Mærli
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This thesis assesses the threat of nuclear terrorism and identifies strategies for diminishing the risk of such incidents. Never before have the material, the technology, the know-how, and, perhaps, the motivations needed to perform acts of nuclear terrorism been more exploitable.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Terrorism