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511. Designing a mechanism for multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia

Author:
Peter Van Ness
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
The current Six Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear programs, if successful, could provide an opportunity to build new and unprecedented multilateral institutions to enhance strategic stability and security in Northeast Asia, historically one of the most volatile, geopolitical regions in the world. After working with colleagues on the linkage between historical reconciliation and cooperative security over the past several years, I attempt in this paper to pull together ideas about the possible component parts for a multilateral security institution in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

512. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Author:
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons

513. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

Author:
Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John Park
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements. Three considerations underpin Beijing's aid policy toward North Korea: 1) protecting China's military-strategic environment; 2) maintaining security and stability along the Sino-DPRK border; and 3) sustaining economic development and political stability in the three Chinese northeastern provinces that border North Korea. There are intense debates among Chinese analysts over: 1) whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons; 2) the strategic value of the DPRK to China; 3) whether the Sino-DPRK treaty should be revised, abandoned, retained and its ambiguity stressed to enhance deterrence; and 4) the likelihood of a rapid improvement in U.S.-DPRK relations and how such a development would affect Chinese interests. Chinese analysts are generally less concerned with North Korea's immediate economic prospects than they were last year, reporting severe but stable conditions. Inflation has subsided and market mechanisms have largely replaced government rations as the primary means for securing a livelihood. In contrast to last year, when Chinese analysts were consumed by the seeming zero-sum choice between stability and reform facing the North Korean leadership, North Korea's slightly improved economic situation seems to have allayed the immediacy of Chinese concerns about North Korea's economic stability. Chinese experts report no fundamental change in North Korea's economic policies following the 2002 reforms. Chinese analysts provide conflicting assessments of whether government attempts to prohibit selling of grain in markets are succeeding and the extent to which the grain rationing system is working. Chinese DPRK specialists are encouraged that the DPRK has haltingly adopted some agricultural and market reforms and allowed greater autonomy to individual factories and enterprises. But they acknowledge that North Korea has not yet allowed farmers to act independently of their work teams, a step China took as early as the late 1970s that raised productivity sharply. Chinese analysts anticipate that reforms will continue as long as they do not threaten central government control. Chinese analysts widely assert that the North Korean system remains stable and they are confident that it will remain so for at least several years absent the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or external interference aimed at destabilizing the regime. In the long run, however, sustainable development through economic reform remains an essential prerequisite for stability, and North Korea's ability to move down that path is not yet assured. There are numerous indicators that the Chinese examine to assess stability trends in North Korea. These indicators are grouped in the following manner: 1) factionalism in the regime and potential challenges to Kim Jong Il's leadership; 2) political controls and ideological education; 3) influences from the outside; 4) the general public's loyalty to the Kim family; 5) crimes and illicit activities; 6) the economy, food supply, and economic reform; and 7) Kim Jong Il's health and the leadership succession. Chinese analysts see few signs of immediate instability in any of these areas at present, but they worry that the potential for instability may grow. In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea. China's strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the United Nations (UN) in such an endeavor. However, if the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability. Contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform at least three possible missions in the DPRK: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or “order keeping” missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) “environmental control” missions to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and secure “loose nukes” and fissile material. There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

514. Legalizing Nuclear Abandonment: The Determinants of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty Ratification

Author:
Matthew Fuhrmann and Xiaojun Li
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This study seeks to explain when and why states ratify regional nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) treaties. When states ratify these treaties they legalize commitments not to manufacture, acquire, test, or possess nuclear weapons and receive assurances from the nuclear powers that nuclear weapons will not be used against them. Integrating insights from the literatures on legal commitment and nuclear proliferation, this paper argues that variation in the costs and benefits of the treaty's provisions is important to understanding NWFZ ratification. This broad assertion leads to several hypotheses that are tested using event history analysis and a sample of all 109 states that are eligible to join NWFZs. The results indicate that expectations of future conflict with the nuclear powers make states more likely to ratify NWFZ treaties and factors that might compel states to pursue nuclear weapons—such as militarized conflict and the presence of nuclear-related resources—make states less likely to do so. Only limited support for the argument that normative or reputation-based benefits influence states' decisions to join NWFZs is found.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Political Economy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements

515. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Turkey

Author:
Hakki Uygur
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for regional and international security and as such requires a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian domestic power structure, foreign policy decision making process and nuclear diplomacy. Iran has a complex internal decision making process and the management of nuclear issue makes the situation more complicated. This policy brief argues that the Iranian nuclear issue is as much a regional and international issue as it is part of the domestic power struggle in Iran. It also argues that Turkey should follow the nuclear issue closely and play a constructive role in opposing the proliferation of WMD including nuclear weapons in the Middle East while maintaining good relations with Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

516. A Chance to Rein In North Korea

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
With a newly elected South Korean president willing to join the United States in standing up to North Korea, the Bush administration now has a unique opportunity to put pressure on Kim Jong Il to abandon his country's nuclear program and desist from its human rights abuses. In this article, AEI's Nicholas Eberstadt asks whether the administration will seize the opportunity.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

517. The Iran Counter-Proliferation Act of 2007

Author:
Danielle Pletka
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On April 8, Iran announced that it was expanding its plans to enrich uranium, despite demands from the United Nations (UN) Security Council that it halt the program. Iran will start installing six thousand more centrifuges in addition to its three thousand existing ones. In testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, AEI vice president Danielle Pletka reviewed recent U.S. and UN policy toward Iran; examined the evidence on sanctions, arguing that they are taking a toll on Iran's economy; and looked at what other options we now have for dealing with Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

518. The North Korea Challenge

Author:
Danielle Pletka and John R. Bolton
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In these two articles, AEI's Danielle Pletka and John R. Bolton bring us up to date and discuss the larger implications of developments since Kim Jong Il pledged to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for diplomatic recognition and foreign aid. Pletka reminds readers that since North Korea signed the 1994 accord, it has detonated a nuclear weapon, exported a reactor to Syria, aided Libya's incipient (and since dismantled) nuclear program, aided Hezbollah, provided sophisticated missiles to Iran, masterminded the counterfeiting of U.S. dollar bills, laundered development aid, and allowed hundreds of thousands of its citizens to starve. Yet the Bush administration "appears intent on the rehabilitation of North Korea and a broad lifting of sanctions," she says. Bolton argues that North Korea's proliferation is "quite likely more than a series of one-time transactions." The underlying reality of the North's activities, he says, "will haunt Bush's successor and threaten international peace."
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

519. Identity and the Bomb

Author:
Michael Busch
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Given the increasingly grim forecast of a “nuclear renaissance,” and renewed concerns of uncontrollable atomic weapons proliferation, Jacques E.C. Hymans's The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation provides a refreshingly positive antidote to the glum literature on international security. Traditional security studies generally seek to explain why so few countries have acquired nuclear arsenals, despite widespread desire and technical capacity in the international arena. In stark contrast, Hymans asks why any nation-state has the bomb at all. Rejecting conventional realist, institutionalist, and constructivist approaches to understanding foreign policy decision-making, Hymans crafts a new theoretical model for shedding light on why certain countries make the “revolutionary” decision to go nuclear. Drawing deeply from social psychology perspectives on human behavior, Hymans counter-intuitively argues that most decision makers are not naturally inclined to want nuclear weapons, nor are they willing to assume the grave responsibilities of having them.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Nuclear Weapons

520. Missile Defence Systems: Global and Regional Implications

Author:
Dennis M. Gormley, Catherine M. Kelleher, and Scott Warren
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The GCSP hosted a workshop on missile defence systems, supported by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. A range of experts, officials and academics contributed to the policy discussion on current and future issues related to missile defence systems. Participants sought to develop a common understanding of current missile defence capabilities, as well as potential threats. Throughout the workshop, experts explored military-technical and political-diplomatic responses to these identified threats.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Switzerland