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222. Nuclear Deterrence: The Wohlstetter-Blackett Debate Re-visited
- Author:
- Rajesh Basrur
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Cold War debate between Albert Wohlstetter and Patrick Blackett over the requirements of effective deterrence is of profound relevance half a century later. The two thinkers offered systematic arguments for their maximalist (Wohlstetter) and minimalist (Blackett) positions. How we conceive of these requirements shapes the kinds of nuclear weapons doctrines, forces and postures we adopt. Whereas the Wohlstetter-Blackett debate was based largely on deductive logic, the opposing arguments can today be assessed on the basis of evidence drawing from nearly seven decades of strategic behaviour between nuclear rivals. An analysis of major confrontations in five nuclear dyads – United States-Soviet Union, United States-China, Soviet Union-China, India-Pakistan, and United States-North Korea – clearly offers much stronger support for Blackett?s minimalist case than for Wohlstetter?s maximalist one. Effective deterrence does not require second-strike capability as defined by Wohlstetter and the nuclear balance has no effect on a state?s capacity to deter. Consequently, the central tenets of orthodox nuclear deterrence theory and doctrine are shown to be without foundation. For policymakers, the optimal forces and postures required for effective deterrence are therefore less demanding and the hurdles in the path of arms control and at least partial disarmament less difficult to cross.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, China, India, and North Korea
223. Governing Uranium in the United States
- Author:
- Sharon Squassoni, Robert Kim, Stephanie Cooke, and Jacob Greenberg
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) participated in a global project on uranium governance led by the Danish Institute for International Studies that looks at uranium accountability and control in 17 uranium- producing countries. The project seeks to identify governance gaps and provide policy recommendations for improving front- end transparency, security, and regulation. The impetus for the project is the concern that monitoring activities at the front end—uranium mining, milling, and conversion—could be strengthened.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States
224. Nuclear Notes
- Author:
- Sarah Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Cold War, nuclear deterrence has been a central element of U.S. national security policy. The United States' nuclear guarantee became the foundation of its security strategy and that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was created to deter the Soviet Union and served as a core part of the alliance's victorious emergence from the Cold War. Just as many questioned the purpose of the alliance after the Cold War, many allies along with the United States currently debate the continued role of U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
225. A Worst Practices Guide to Insider Threats: Lessons from Past Mistakes
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn and Scott D. Sagan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear security systems face. All of the cases of theft of nuclear materials where the circumstances of the theft are known were perpetrated either by insiders or with the help of insiders; given that the other cases involve bulk material stolen covertly without anyone being aware the material was missing, there is every reason to believe that they were perpetrated by insiders as well. Similarly, disgruntled workers from inside nuclear facilities have perpetrated many of the known incidents of nuclear sabotage. The most recent example of which we are aware is the apparent insider sabotage of a diesel generator at the San Onofre nuclear plant in the United States in 2012; the most spectacular was an incident three decades ago in which an insider placed explosives directly on the steel pressure vessel head of a nuclear reactor and then detonated them. While many such incidents, including the two just mentioned, appear to have been intended to send a message to management, not to spread radioactivity, they highlight the immense dangers that could arise from insiders with more malevolent intent. As it turns out, insiders perpetrate a large fraction of thefts from heavily guarded non-nuclear facilities as well. Yet organizations often find it difficult to under - stand and protect against insider threats. Why is this the case?
- Topic:
- Security and Nuclear Weapons
226. Creating a 'one house' culture at the IAEA through matrix management
- Author:
- Robert E. Kelley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently structured along largely programmatic lines, with each programme recruiting and training its own staff. This process is wasteful as it creates bureaucratic disincentives to sharing people and resources.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
227. Handle with care: crowd-sourcing and non-proliferation
- Author:
- Christian Dietrich
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- States do not spread weapons of mass destruction - people do. It takes individual proliferators, collaborators, and the acquiescence of bystanders for sensitive materials to change hands illicitly. Yet, the rigid national and international means deployed to counter proliferation are juxtaposed with the limitless amounts of information people produce in our digitally connected world.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
228. Iran and the P5+1: Solving the Nuclear Rubik's Cube
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In a region of troubles, the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program stand out. The first-step agreement, signed in November 2013, broke a decade of futile diplomatic forays punctuated by mutual escalation. The product of a rare confluence of political calendars and actors, it set a framework for a balanced arms-control agreement that could form the basis of a comprehensive nuclear accord. But reasons for caution abound. It is easier to pause than to reverse the escalation pitting centrifuges against sanctions. Mistrust remains deep, time is short, and the process remains vulnerable to pressure from domestic and regional detractors. In bringing the sides together, the accord revealed the chasm that separates them. Success is possible only with political will to isolate the deal – at least for now – from its complex regional context. It will ultimately be sustainable only if the parties, building on its momentum, recognise that their rival's legitimate interests need to be respected. But a far-reaching resolution of differences will be possible only after a relatively narrow, technical nuclear agreement.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
229. Advancing Nuclear Security: Evaluating Progress and Setting New Goals
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism has not disappeared, though the world has made important progress in reducing these risks. Urgent new steps are needed to build effective and lasting nuclear security worldwide. The nuclear security effort must now shift from short-term improvements toward a focus on a continued search for excellence, lasting as long as terrorist groups bent on mass destruction and the nuclear and radiological materials they might use both continue to exist.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Border Control
230. Securing China's Nuclear Future
- Author:
- Hui Zhang and Tuosheng Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the threat of nuclear terrorism has become one of the most significant challenges to international security. China has worked to meet this challenge, but a continuing effort is needed. The 2010 and 2012 Nuclear Security Summits raised the issues of nuclear security to a higher political level and enhanced international consensus on the danger of nuclear terrorism. China actively participated in the first two summits, and President Xi Jinping will participate in the Nuclear Security Summit in the Netherlands in March 2014. China's commitment to nuclear security is now well established. Former president Hu Jintao emphasized in 2012 that, "the threat of nuclear terrorism cannot be overlooked." Meeting that threat, as President Hu recognized, "is a long and arduous task."
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia