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71. Revitalising the NPT: Preparing the EU for the tenth RevCon

Author:
Clara Portela
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Almost 20 years ago, an early assessment of the role of the EU in the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons concluded that it performed better at addressing the arms control agenda in multilateral fora than at resolving proliferation crises.1 The reasons for this seemed straightforward: a composite actor like the EU can coordinate better in a multilateral setting, where it is able to rely on ample preparation time, than in the context of international crises that often arise unexpectedly. A decade after that initial assessment, the situation was the opposite. In 2015, France, Germany and the UK – the E3 – assisted by successive EU High Representatives, secured a deal with Iran after years of painstaking talks alongside the US, China and Russia, putting the EU on the map as a non-proliferation actor. However, in the Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that took place in the same year, the EU appeared divided in a session that eventually failed to agree a final document.2 How can this evolution be explained – and ideally improved – with a view to the upcoming Review Conference (RevCon) of the NPT in April-May 2020? The present Brief outlines the record of the EU in this context, highlighting the difficulties encountered in the 2015 edition, and identifying the stakes for the EU in the forthcoming RevCon as well as a possible way forward.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe

72. Science, research, and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540: the need of a “Wiesbaden process” for Academia

Author:
Ignacio Cartagena Núñez
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The necessary link between export controls/academia/technology transfers has lagged behind in policy agendas: while weapons and dual-use goods are being channeled through very detailed regulations and export control regimes, knowledge transfers within scientific collaborations are subject to disperse and heterogeneous rules. The normative vacuum concerning intangible technology transfers in academia is a clear proliferating risk. History proves that many big proliferation networks have started precisely within peaceful scientific research projects. In this context, dialogue with universities and research centers–on the basis of an increasing awareness of the sensitive nature of research and its proliferating risks- could pave the way for states’ further attention on the matter. This could be achieved through a structured dialogue between public actors –in particular export control authorities- and researchers. In order to preserve scientific freedom, a better understanding of each other’s needs, requirements and concerns should be in the basis of any regulation. This article sustains a three-fold idea: first, basic export controls concepts might not be always suitable for science and research, thus needing a constant adaptation exercise where the active role of researchers and scientists becomes irreplaceable; second: UNSCR 1540 resolution offers a good framework in order to steer cooperation between national regulatory authorities, export control regimes and academia; third, the suggested interaction could take a form similar to the “Wiesbaden process” which has already proven to be a successful platform for interaction between governments and industry representatives. The comprehensive review of UNSCR 1540, expected to take place in 2021, will contribute to shape the nonproliferation agenda for the years to come. It seems a good opportunity for setting up the grounds for this suggested dialogue between public authorities and scientists. This new process could be a tangible achievement of the Comprehensive Review.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Non State Actors, Nonproliferation, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. Brasil nuclear: dos interpretaciones opuestas sobre la orientación de su programa atómico (Nuclear Brazil: Two Opposed Interpretations about the Orientation of its Atomic Program)

Author:
Juan Francisco Morales Giraldo
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Al analizar el programa nuclear de Brasil desde dos enfoques teóricos distintos, su orientación y propósitos presentan también importantes diferencias. Las perspectivas más optimistas, de corte liberal, enfatizan que la política exterior de un país debería juzgarse desde aspectos favorables a los valores democráticos, el respeto por las normas internacionales y la autoevaluación de la legitimidad frente al escrutinio de la opinión pública. Pero al contrario de enfoques que se sostienen en argumentos normativos, una perspectiva basada en una política de poder incidiría en aspectos menos idealistas: la reconfiguración de la jerarquía del poder internacional y las aspiraciones de una potencia global emergente como motivaciones subyacentes para los desarrollos técnicos del programa atómico. Este trabajo sopesa la relativa utilidad de ambas perspectivas, enfocándose en situaciones, desarrollos y discursos del pasado reciente que permiten inferir la orientación política el programa nuclear del Brasil. El estudio procede contrastando las evidencias recogidas con elementos teóricos asociados a cada perspectiva. En una primera parte, se compara la política exterior del Brasil respecto al régimen de no proliferación con lo que las tesis liberales plantean acerca de la conducta estatal. En ese sentido, tendrían especial importancia explicativa el peso normativo de las instituciones internacionales, la democracia interna y la legitimidad que otorga el apego a estos principios. En el segundo apartado se adopta una perspectiva opuesta: las tesis liberales respecto a la problemática del programa nuclear del Brasil son vistas de manera crítica según una interpretación de su orientación basada en una política revisionista y pragmática en consonancia con objetivos mayores de estatus internacional y relaciones de poder con las grandes potencias. La evidencia más importante, la ambigüedad de un programa nuclear pacífico con fines militares, sugeriría que es la segunda perspectiva la que posee mayor capacidad explicativa de los propósitos del Brasil en esta materia. Las conclusiones del estudio se enfocan en tres distinciones esenciales entre ambos enfoques que responden a las interrogantes planteadas: la ausencia de un programa de armas nucleares en contraste con la militarización de la tecnología nuclear y sus aplicaciones; el apego a la institucionalidad internacional en contraste con el pragmatismo y la selectividad en el cumplimiento de ciertos principios; y, finalmente, las fronteras conceptuales poco claras que quedan expuestas por el programa nuclear del Brasil.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Realism, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

74. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Diverse Voices on Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear Security, and Global Health Security Policy

Author:
Wardah Amir, Sara Z. Kutchesfahani, Jennyfer Ambe, Rahwa Osman, Seema Gahlaut, Nomsa Ndongwe, Togzhan Kassenova, Kimberly Ma, Jasmine Owens, Celeste Rogers, Sylvia Mishra, Liza Arias, Sumaya Malas, Jessica J. Lee, Jessica Gott, April Arnold, and Takiva Pierce
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:
This edition features articles from member sin two of the WCAPS working groups: Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear Security; and Global Health Security. A critical goal of WCAPS is to cultivate a new generation of women of color in the areas of peace and security, foreign policy, and national security.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, Biological Weapons, Chemical Weapons, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, Global Focus, and United States of America

75. On the Value of Nuclear Dialogue with China

Author:
David Santoro and Robert Gromoll
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This material is based on research sponsored by DTRA and managed by the US Air Force Academy (USAFA), and Pacific Forum International under agreement number FA7000-19-2- 0012. The US Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation thereon. The opinions, findings, views, conclusions or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the USAFA, DTRA, or the US Government. This paper was written by Dr. David Santoro, Vice President and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Pacific Forum, and Dr. Robert Gromoll, former Director of the Office of Regional Affairs at the US Department of State’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation; Dr. Gromoll is now retired. Both Drs. Santoro and Gromoll participated in numerous dialogue rounds, and Dr. Santoro was a co-organizer. The paper is based primarily on the contents of the dialogue’s written reports, several of which were authored or co-authored by Dr. Santoro. By and large, the paper draws directly from these reports and reviews how the topics addressed in the dialogue were approached and discussed by the US and Chinese sides over time. (A list of these reports is included at the end of the paper; some have been published, others have not.) The paper is also based on the authors’ broader experience in participating in the Track-1.5 dialogue; the conversations they have had with US and Chinese participants on these issues over the years, both during the dialogue and on the margins; and their own personal research. This paper represents the views of the authors and not those of Pacific Forum or the US State Department.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States and China

76. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): A further Step Regarding the Unlawfulness of the Use of Nuclear Weapons / Tratado sobre la Prohibición de las Armas Nucleares (TPAN): un paso más en la ilicitud del empleo del arma nuclear

Author:
Elena C. Díaz Galán
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which proposes a complete prohibition of this kind of weapons, gives an opportunity to think about the unlawfulness of its use and, where appropriate, the precise identification of the cases in which the use of nuclear weapons would be accepted by the international community. The goal of the TPNW is to eliminate the nuclear weapons in international relations thus this Treaty proclaims the unlawfulness of the use of such weapons. TPNW is a further step, although still insufficient, in prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons in an absolute and complete way in international relations. However, the simple adoption of this Treaty shows the necessity of agreement regarding such prohibition as well as keeping negotiations in order to achieve unanimous agreement on this matter by the international community. Most likely, the use of nuclear weapons should be considered as a specially prohibited case by the international legal order.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Avoiding a Post-INF Missile Race

Author:
Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
On November 7, 2019, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the Center for Energy and Security Studies held a forum titled “US-Russia Dialogue on Nuclear Issues: Does Arms Control Have a Future?” Dr. Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow with the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, prepared the briefing paper, “Avoiding a Post-INF Missile Race,” to address the concerns about a new arms race in Europe arising after the end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Though comparisons to the Euromissile crisis of the early 1980s are inevitable, the present situation is different in one important respect: neither Russia nor NATO want a new arms race, and both have demonstrated a degree of restraint. “Nevertheless,” Dr. Sokov argues in the paper, “the situation is fragile, and it is difficult to predict how long mutual restraint can hold.” Furthermore, the military balance today includes additional, complicating features, including the replacement of nuclear weapons’ missions with high-precision long-range conventional weapons, the enlargement of NATO and the collapse of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, the risk of escalation presented by increased dual-capable delivery systems, as well as the role of Asia in the global strategic balance. The window of opportunity for addressing these rising concerns is relatively narrow. Since “full-scope arms-control negotiations aiming at legally binding and verifiable treaties are hardly feasible in the current and projected political and security environment,” this CNS brief suggests a “more modest” approach to expanding and securing the restraint that exists, before it disappears altogether.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nonproliferation, Missile Defense, Deterrence, and Arms Race
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and North America

78. Resist Erosion of NPT to Rid the World of Atomic Bombs

Author:
Sergio Duarte
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
On 17 June 2019 Pugwash President Sergio Duarte published a commentary on the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty on the InDepthNews website.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. Ditch the Bomb, not the NPT

Author:
Sergio Duarte
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
On 18 November 2019 The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists published a piece by Pugwash President Sergio Duarte examining the health of the nuclear non-proliferation regime in anticipation of the 2020 NPT Review Conference.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. UNGA Middle East WMDFZ Conference takes place in New York

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
From 19-22 November 2019 Pugwash President Sergio Duarte attended the opening of general debate of the conference convened in accordance with General Assembly decision A/73/546, entitled “Convening a conference on the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction”. A decision had been taken by the President of the Conference, Ambassador Bahous of Jordan, and participating States to allow invited NGOs to participate as observers through the opening sessions. The First Session of the Conference was convened by the UN Secretary General pursuant to Resolution 73/546. Amb. Sima Bahous of Jordan was elected President. 23 States from the region participated, plus four NWS invited as observers. It was agreed to proceed by consensus on both procedural and substantive issues, pending final agreement on the rules of procedure, which will be considered in the intersessional period. The thematic debate centered on principles and objectives, general obligations on nuclear weapons and other WMD, peaceful uses, international cooperation, institutional arrangements and other aspects. Representatives of existing NW Free Zones will be invited prior to the Second Session to share good practices and lessons learned. The Conference adopted a Political Declaration and a Report. The next Session will be held in New York from 16 to 20 November 2020. The Declaration stated the belief of participating States that a verifiable ME Zone free of Nuclear Weapons and other WMD would greatly enhance regional and international peace and security and stated further their intent to pursue in an open and inclusive manner the elaboration of a legally binding treaty on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at by the States of the region. In that spirit, the Conference extended an open-ended invitation to all those States to support the Declaration and join in the process. Participating States also undertook to follow-up on the Declaration and on the outcomes of the Conference.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus