Search

Begin New Search Topic Natural Disasters Publication Year within 25 Years

11. Did the February 6-7 Türkiye Earthquake Trigger a Housing Market Bubble? Empirical Insights from Right-tailed Unit-root Tests

Author:
Gökhan Kartal
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study primarily aims to assess whether the destructive earthquakes of February 6-7, 2023 triggered a potential nationwide housing market bubble. Spanning the period from January 2010 to September 2024, the analysis employs Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods to identify bubble formations. The findings reveal significant bubble periods, including January to August 2015, November 2015 to November 2016, May 2018 to January 2019, May to June 2019, and February to December 2023. The latest bubble formation occurred immediately after the earthquake, highlighting a strong link between the disaster and housing market dynamics. While the earthquake’s impact—through abrupt housing stock loss, large-scale displacement, and intensified demand for secure housing—was undeniably a crucial trigger for this bubble, other macroeconomic factors, such as inflationary pressures, low interest rates, and the perception of housing as a lucrative investment, also played a reinforcing role. The Türkiye experience enhances the understanding of speculative cycles in seismic regions, demonstrating how non-economic shocks such as earthquakes can rapidly boost demand and strain housing supply, amplifying speculative behaviour. This bubble, which peaked in May 2023 and gradually deflated, completely dissipated by December 2023. This development can be associated with the policies implemented by economic authorities, including interest rate hikes, restrictive credit measures, as well as the normalisation of conditions across the country following the earthquake. This highlights the need for proactive monitoring and intervention by economic authorities through appropriate economic policies and regulations to address supply-demand imbalances and mitigate the risks of future housing bubbles, particularly in response to external shocks. Furthermore, in response to the study’s findings on earthquake-triggered bubbles, policymakers should prioritise initiatives aimed at strengthening building infrastructure and implementing urban transformation strategies.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Speculative Bubbles, and Housing Market
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12. “Under One Tree”? Exploring Pastoral, National, and International Approaches to Humanitarian Action

Author:
Elizabeth Stites, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Paul Howe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Although resilience is an inherent component of pastoral systems, it must be adequately supported through effective national and international policies, programs, and approaches. However, to date the evidence provided by pastoralists and organizations working with pastoral populations suggests that international and national humanitarian assistance is rarely provided in ways that are truly helpful for pastoral communities to protect their livelihoods. This synthesis report brings together the findings from the first phase of a three-year research project exploring how humanitarian action — comprising early warning, anticipatory action, and emergency response — can be more attuned to the needs, perspectives, and approaches of pastoral communities in the dryland areas of the Greater Horn and Sudano-Sahel. The main outputs from Phase 1 are three desk studies examining humanitarian action from three perspectives: the views of the pastoralists, national governments, and the international community. This synthesis report reflects upon the cross-cutting learning and key themes and considers the implications for humanitarian action in dryland areas.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, Pastoralism, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Gender, Early Warning, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

13. Anticipatory Insurance with African Risk Capacity: A Holistic Benefit-Cost Analysis

Author:
Leah B. Poole, Vaibhav Anand, Alexa Gozdiff Spognardi, Anne Radday, Komal Rathod, and Erin Coughlan de Perez
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
African Risk Capacity, with the support of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, has designed an anticipatory insurance product to support farmers in the drought-prone regions of Malawi and Zambia. The anticipatory approach is innovative because the insurance pays out when forecasts predict a drought, rather than after drought-related losses and damages have occurred. This report explores the potential costs and benefits of the insurance product and proposes a framework for monitoring and evaluating these factors once the product is implemented. Costs and benefits are assessed with an economic model, supported by qualitative data collected from key stakeholders. The results of this research are intended to assist government decision-makers by providing insights into potential challenges and successes associated with the product’s implementation. Additionally, the research may offer a useful framework of considerations for the expansion of this initiative to other countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Early Warning, and Livestock
Political Geography:
Africa

14. Laying a Strong Foundation for Disaster Resilience: How Can Data Make Us Resilient to Disasters?

Author:
Samet Keskin
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report aims to demonstrate the importance of data-driven approaches for laying strong foundations in disaster management. The report firstly provides information on which data may be needed for disaster risk reduction and how they can be used in disaster management, as well as examples of good practices, services and products. This review is followed by recommendations to use data more effectively in disaster risk reduction and to better integrate it into policymaking and strategy development processes.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Proposal for a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) for Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Rusif Huseynov, Tatul Manaseryan, Arman Martirosyan, and Niko Orell
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, are facing unprecedented challenges that arise from unfolding climate change and seismic risk in the South Caucasus. Placing considerable strain on economies, livelihoods, and government resources, these hazards can significantly worsen the complex geopolitical landscape and exacerbate unresolved political issues. The absence of structured and coordinated disaster response mechanisms can increase vulnerability and hamper effective crisis management, leading to avoidable loss of life, widespread suffering, and significant economic damage. We propose the establishment of a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) in the form of a coordinated binational disaster response system. This system could enable better preparation and facilitate effective responses to disasters that are likely to have an impact across borders, ultimately saving lives through joint efforts and resource mobilisation. Including Georgia would further strengthen such a crisis management system and solidify regional cooperation. Furthermore, this mechanism could help catalyse political rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Natural disasters and humanitarian crises can bring adversarial states together and unexpectedly foster collaboration. Greece and Türkiye have engaged in “earthquake diplomacy”, and despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Armenia and Türkiye briefly reopened their border to facilitate aid during the devastating 2023 Turkish earthquake (see Case Study 1 for more information). This rare example of earthquake diplomacy demonstrates how countries in seismically active regions can share common threats and opportunities for cooperation in their disaster responses. Similarly, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have conducted joint disaster-response exercises involving 400 firefighters, medical personnel, and first responders, and the United States and Western states extended considerable support to the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the 1988 Armenian earthquake.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Partnerships, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

16. Economic Impacts of Climatic Change on African Women

Author:
Hélène Maisonnave and Martin Henseler
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Lower access to money and assets makes women less resilient against climate change impacts, like extreme weather events (floods, drought) and scarcity of resources such as water and food. In agriculturally based economies in Africa, most women work in the climate-sensitive agricultural sectors. Moreover, women face time poverty because they are the main ones responsible for domestic work, for example, childcare, collecting water and fuel, and food preparation. At the same time, women are extremely important for the current and future economic growth in developing economies. In Africa, all these women-specific challenges apply on a continent highly exposed to the impacts of climate change but are regionally heterogeneous. Understanding the region-specific impact of climate change on women is the key to designing effective and efficient policies to counteract the negative impacts on women.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Natural Disasters, and Women
Political Geography:
Africa

17. Enhancing Disaster Resilience through Gender-Sensitive Policy Frameworks: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:
Nialish Khan
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Pakistan is vulnerable to disasters, but recently, climate change has exacerbated its impact, which has led to adverse effects on the country's socio-economic stability. This research paper explores the gaps in Pakistan's disaster management frameworks and policies and proposes gender-sensitive disaster-resilient policy recommendations. It highlights the disproportionate impacts of disasters on the lives of women, exacerbated by socio-cultural norms. The study draws lessons from Bangladesh and Japan, which have successfully integrated gender-inclusive disaster mitigation strategies. Recommendations include equitable distribution of relief aid, ensuring women's participation in decision-making, increasing coordinated efforts among agencies, and enhancing community-based disaster management. The effective implementation of these measures will contribute to sustainable communities and better living conditions for women.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Women, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

18. Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
This report is a scientific synthesis by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). It is intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. It has been reviewed internally before publication.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Natural Disasters, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

19. Turkey Earthquake: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

20. Post-Disaster Aid in “Politically Estranged” Settings: Findings from Ten Years of Post-Nargis Social Research in Myanmar

Author:
Markus Kostner
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
This paper aims to inform post-disaster relief and recovery efforts in situations where relations between major development donors and national authorities are estranged. It reflects on the “what” and the “how” of aid as well as on the challenges encountered, and created, by aid providers following the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. It thereby demonstrates the importance of giving agency to communities for both aid delivery and oversight in these settings. Longitudinal social impacts monitoring (SIM) in a panel of 40 villages following the 2008 Cyclone Nargis identified three interrelated, yet often neglected principles that help to determine the effectiveness of post-disaster aid: empowerment—communities not only participate in, but own decision-making throughout the project cycle; transparency—communities know what aid a provider intends to deliver, and how; and accountability—communities can seek redress for aid that risks harming them in some way. Had these principles been applied consistently during the post-Nargis period, the aid effort could have identified critical challenges and opportunities more easily, such as: the fact that communities are readily able to identify what they need, and to prioritize the types of assistance they wish to receive (particularly regarding livelihood recovery); the importance of anticipating longer-term, direct and indirect economic, social, and mental health impacts; the value of building flexibility into the aid effort as needs change throughout the recovery process; the need to differentiate between livelihood groups, consider their interdependence, and target aid accordingly and consistent with village social norms; the importance of including local formal and informal leaders in the decision-making process from the outset; the imperative of providing aid irrespective of identity markers such as ethnicity or religion; and the need to avoid overburdening or harming communities through the way aid is administered. The post-Nargis aid effort faced numerous political and logistical complexities of operating in a country that was facing international sanctions. These challenges notwithstanding, several aid providers demonstrated that adherence to the three principles was possible. The SIM series thus confirmed that, for aid in “politically estranged” post- disaster settings, community-driven approaches can be an effective delivery modality and community-based, participatory social research can be a powerful oversight mechanism.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Natural Disasters, and Donors
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar