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212. A Dangerous Brew for Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Charles I. Plosser
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- It is a pleasure to join you at Cato's 28th Annual Monetary Conference. In preparing today's remarks, I noted that this year's topic of how monetary policy should deal with asset prices was also discussed here in 2008. The speakers at that time expressed a wide variety of views and opinions. The fact that this important question continues to resurface here and at other prominent meetings in recent years suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy
213. Limits of Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice
- Author:
- Vincent R. Reinhart and Carmen M. Reinhart
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy casts a spell over market participants, commentators, and academics. The pages of financial newspapers parse subtle differences among the comments of Fed officials and delve deeply into potentially multiple meanings of official statements. Academic discussions argue that the path of the policy rate may (as in Taylor 2009) or may not (as in Bernanke 2010, and Greenspan 2010) have fueled a home-price bubble in the United States.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
214. Financial Crises: Prevention, Correction, and Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Manuel Sánchez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The financial crisis that surfaced in 2007 has stressed the need to identify the ultimate sources of the incentives that were behind the preceding credit and housing bubbles. To lower the likelihood of future financial collapses, prudent economic policies as well as an adequate regulatory and supervisory framework for financial institutions are required. Monetary policy, in turn, should be directed toward price stability, which is a central bank's best contribution not only to long-term economic growth, but also to financial stability.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief and Monetary Policy
215. Supply: A Tale of Two Bubbles
- Author:
- Mark A. Calabria
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- To the extent that monetary policy influences asset prices, it does so via the demand for assets, by changing the borrowing costs to purchase assets, or via supply, where movements in interest rates can make investment in assets look more or less attractive. Fiscal policy interventions can also contribute to bubbles by changing the cost of acquiring specific assets. Most discussions of asset bubbles, particularly those involving the role of monetary policy, focus on demandside factors. This article examines the role of supply-side factors in the recent booms in the U.S. housing market and dot-com stocks. The importance of supply constraints in each market is discussed. Policy implications are then presented.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
216. Preventing Bubbles: Regulation versus Monetary Policy
- Author:
- David Malpass
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the years, there has been a lot to consider in the Federal Reserve's choices of monetary policy and their relationship to bubbles. My conclusion is that mistaken U.S. monetary policy, usually related to the Fed's indifference to the value of the dollar, has repeatedly caused harmful asset bubbles in the United States and abroad. Policy is again at risk with the Fed's imposition of near-zero interest rates and its decision to conduct large-scale asset purchases (termed “quantitative easing”). Regulatory policy has often been ineffective at identifying or addressing asset bubbles, especially those caused by Fed policy. The solution is a parallel track to improve monetary policy so that it provides a more stable dollar and fewer asset bubbles; and to strengthen regulatory policy so that it provides a more reliable base for growth-creating free markets.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
217. How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be and Still Work?
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper takes up the issue of the flexibility of inflation targeting regimes, with the specific goal of determining whether the monetary policy of the Bank of England, which has a formal inflation target, has been any less flexible than that of the Federal Reserve, which does not have such a target. The empirical analysis uses the speed of inflation forecast convergence, estimated from professional forecasters' predictions at successive forecast horizons, to gauge the perceived flexibility of the central bank's response to macroeconomic shocks. Based on this criterion, there is no evidence to suggest that the Bank of England's inflation target has compelled it to be more aggressive in pursuit of low inflation than the Federal Reserve.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- England
218. Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the ongoing rapid changes in the world economy, the fate of the dollar as the premier international reserve currency is under scrutiny. This paper attempts to answer whether the Chinese renminbi will eclipse the dollar, what will be the timing of, and the prerequisites for this transition, and which of the two countries controls the outcome. The key finding, based on analyzing the last 110 years, is that the size of an economy—measured not just in terms of GDP but also trade and the strength of the external financial position—is the key fundamental correlate of reserve currency status. Further, the conventional view that sterling persisted well beyond the strength of the UK economy is overstated. Although the United States overtook the United Kingdom in terms of GDP in the 1870s, it became dominant in a broader sense encompassing trade and finance only at the end of World War I. And since the dollar overtook sterling in the mid-1920s, the lag between currency dominance and economic dominance was about 10 years rather than the 60-plus years traditionally believed. Applying these findings to the current context suggests that the renminbi could become the premier reserve currency by the end of this decade, or early next decade. But China needs to fulfill a number of conditions—making the reniminbi convertible and opening up its financial system to create deep and liquid markets—to realize renminbi preeminence. China seems to be moving steadily in that direction, and renminbi convertibility will proceed apace not least because it offers China's policymakers a political exit out of its mercantilist growth strategy. The United States cannot in any serious way prevent China from moving in that direction.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
219. After €urogeddon? Frequently asked questions about the break-up of the euro zone
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Thirteen years since its launch, Europe's common currency is in crisis. A Greek debt restructuring is inevitable, and concern is now focusing on contagion among the larger euro area economies. The prospect of a cascade of disorderly sovereign defaults is chilling investors, and the departure of some members from the common currency is increasingly being discussed. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the currency area will survive, but the odds of failure are too high to ignore. To help clients anticipate the implications for their operations of a collapse in the euro zone, we have compiled a list of frequently asked questions (FAQ), exploring the potential scope and impact of a euro-area break-up. We look at what “break-up” could mean, although in practice numerous possible permutations exist between the extremes of departure by a single country and the exit of all 17 members.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
220. The Current Currency Situation
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The currency markets have been extremely disturbed for the last three months. The period witnessed a major strengthening of the US dollar in September, then the European currency crisis, a recovery of the euro when the markets believed that the crisis was being controlled, and then a rebound of the dollar. In view of these developments, those who follow currency movements need a new guide as to how the current values of currencies compare to our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). That is the main object of this paper.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe