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2. Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power
- Author:
- David Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, and Samantha Wong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China’s rapidly improving nuclear capabilities and expanding nuclear arsenal underpin its recent rise as a nuclear peer power. For the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, the uncertainty of China’s intentions behind this nuclear expansion poses a major challenge. It necessitates a revisit of the fundamental assumptions underpinning US and allied planning and preparation for a potential conflict with China. The 2022 White House National Security Strategy1 and National Defense Strategy2 identified China as the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological wherewithal to reshape the international order. The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted how China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad.3 The report further assessed that Beijing will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade.4 China also sustains extensive and ambitious space operations. According to the Department of Defense’s 2022 China Military Power Report5, as of 2021, China’s 260 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites were the largest collection of such constellations globally other than the United States’. The transformation of China’s military capabilities no longer represents the linear, stepwise modernization of an outmoded military that characterized the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for the past two decades. Since the PLA launched its major internal command and service restructuring in 2015, previous doctrinal and teaching publications acquired and exploited by Western analysts are out of date and likely declining in relevance. By extension, much of the Western analysis of PLA plans, operations, and concepts of deterrence and escalation control are also likely to be out of date. China’s rapid expansion of strategic warfighting capabilities (i.e., nuclear forces, space/counterspace systems, and cyber/information operations) represents tremendous discontinuity in the pace, scope, and scale of the PLA’s transformation, necessitating a major US reassessment of Chinese strategy, doctrine, and warfighting operations. The commonly accepted notion that deliberate Chinese nuclear force modernization is characterized as “running faster to stay in the same place” to sustain a minimal retaliatory posture is assessed to have evolved. China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel6 its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests. As a step in this reassessment, this project reevaluated China’s strategy, doctrine, and warfighting concepts in light of its ongoing rapid transformation into a peer nuclear power, examined implications of this assessment for future US contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region, and produced several actionable findings and recommendations for US government decision-makers that can be addressed in the next five- to ten-year horizon.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3. The Missing Pieces of a Kerch Bridge Strike: Give Ukraine What It Needs to Isolate Crimea and Gain the Initiative
- Author:
- Bryan Clark and Can Kasapoglu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture both on the ground and in the capitols of Ukraine’s main supporters. Aid to Kyiv is now a point of contention in the United States Congress, which had to remove Ukraine support from a short-term funding package to avoid a government shutdown. Overseas, China’s intensified aggression toward its neighbors and Hamas’s terror campaign against Israel are beginning to stretch US attention and resources across multiple theaters. With half of Ukraine’s post-invasion military and humanitarian assistance coming from the United States, softening support in Washington could cause other North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies to pare back their contributions as well. To sustain US and NATO support and put Russia on the defensive going into winter, Ukraine’s military will need to change the dynamics of a counteroffensive that has been slow to retake Russian-held territory. Cutting off Crimea from Russia and forcing Moscow’s troops to protect an isolated peninsula is the kind of change that would prove Ukraine is able to win the war, rather than merely fight to a draw. With the “land bridge” across southern Ukraine already under attack, the Kerch Strait bridge carries much of the ammunition and supplies going into Crimea. If the bridge were impassable, Russia would need to redouble its efforts to defend southern Ukraine, drawing troops away from the east and north and potentially enabling Kyiv to make more rapid gains along those fronts before winter. Ukraine has already attacked the Kerch Bridge several times during the war, with air-launched missiles, drone boats, and semisubmersibles. The most successful strike, via a truck bomb, damaged the bridge but did not stop its use. Eliminating the 12-mile-long span as a factor in the war will require a sustained series of long-range strikes structured to defeat Russian defenses and supported by a few new pieces of Western military hardware.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Missile Defense, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
4. Missile Defense in South Korea: Will President Yoon Heed China’s Concerns?
- Author:
- Debalina Ghoshal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Earlier this week, some residents of Seoul, South Korea, received an emergency alert to prepare for a potential evacuation following military reports that North Korea had fired a projectile southward (Yonhap, May 31). The alerts, which stemmed from an errant North Korean satellite launch that sparked grave but fleeting alarm, underscore the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) growing apprehensions regarding the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) ballistic and cruise missile development and testing, coupled with its expanding nuclear arsenal (NK News, January 1). In addition, North Korea’s long-range artillery systems remain a persistent threat, which not only endanger counter-force targets in South Korea, but also threaten counter-value targets, in particular Seoul, the nation’s capital and largest metropolis.
- Topic:
- Weapons, Missile Defense, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
5. China’s Interests in North Korean Denuclearization: Reducing the Northeast Asian Security Dilemma
- Author:
- Debalina Ghoshal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The existential North Korean nuclear and missile threats negatively impact the Asia-Pacific security environment for the United States, South Korea, Japan and Australia. In response, these countries have taken countermeasures to defend themselves against the growing danger from North Korea. As a result, North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities indirectly worsen China’s “security dilemma” by spurring the U.S. and its allies to devote greater resources to maintaining a strong security presence in Northeast Asia. This situation is illustrated by Beijing’s consistent criticism of Seoul for allowing the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system in South Korea since 2017. Although South Korea has sought to reassure China that the system is aimed at counteracting the threat from North Korea, Beijing has maintained that the presence of the U.S. THAAD in Korea “clearly undermines China’s strategic security interests” (PRC Ministry Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], August 10, 2022). Although China has been accused of not putting enough effort into the denuclearization process, achieving success in eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula would serve China’s security interests in several ways, including by removing a powerful justification for the U.S. and China’s neighbors to devote resources to regional security. In part due to North Korea’s growing missile capabilities, South Korea, Japan and Australia have all recent strengthened their respective missile development programs. In 2021, the United States also lifted the restrictions it had imposed on South Korea limiting the range and payload of its ballistic missiles. According to previous South Korea president Moon Jae, this has removed “security shackles”—allowing South Korea to regain its missile autonomy (Korea Herald, May 22, 2021).
- Topic:
- Weapons, Missile Defense, Denuclearization, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
6. Missile Defense Study
- Author:
- William C. Greenwalt, Elliott Branch, Susan Kinney-Perkins, William Philips, and Joseph Westphal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
- Abstract:
- The Department of Defense (DoD) contracted with the Academy for an independent study of the roles and responsibilities of the Department of Defense components related to missile defense. Pursuant to the FY2022 NDAA Section 1675, the Secretary and the Academy entered into an agreement by which the Academy carried out a study regarding the roles and responsibilities of the various components of the Department of Defense as they pertain to Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD). The study includes: A comprehensive assessment and analysis of existing Department component roles and responsibilities for the full range of IAMD activities, including the establishment of requirements, research and development, system acquisition, and operations and sustainment. Identification of gaps in component capability of each applicability component for performing its assigned IAMD roles and responsibilities. Identification of opportunities for deconflicting mission sets, eliminating areas of unnecessary duplication, reducing waste, and improving efficiency across the full range of IAMD activities. Development of a timetable for the implementation of the opportunities identified above. Development of recommendations for such legislative or administrative action as the Academy considers appropriate pursuant to developing analysis of the above. The Academy assembled a five-member Panel of Academy Fellows to oversee and guide this study.
- Topic:
- Missile Defense, Public Administration, Organizational Assessment, and Department of Defense (DoD)
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
7. Eleven Myths and Realities about Biden’s Missile Defense Review
- Author:
- Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- On October 27, 2022, the Biden administration released the public version of the Missile Defense Review (MDR). The document is commendable in some respects and is concerning in others. Below are some myths and realities about the Biden MDR.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Missile Defense, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8. North America Is a Region, Too: An Integrated, Phased, and Affordable Approach to Air and Missile Defense for the Homeland
- Author:
- Tom Karako, Matthew Strohmeyer, Wes Rumbaugh, and Ken Harmon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- U.S. air and missile defense efforts have long been characterized by a striking dichotomy. Defenses for the homeland have largely focused on long-range ballistic threats, while cruise missile defense and other air defense efforts have focused on regional and force protection applications to the exclusion of the homeland. This compartmentalization assumes that battles in one place will only consist of certain parts of the threat spectrum, and battles elsewhere will consist only of others. That lingering dichotomy creates a vulnerability that near-peer adversaries now seek to exploit. In a sense, the homeland-regional dichotomy ignores the fact that North America is a region, too. As with any other region, attacks on assets in North America could be designed to shape the political and military calculus of U.S. policymakers. This report explores the strategic significance of air and missile defense for the homeland, considers principles informing defense design, and develops and costs an architecture based on those principles.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
9. Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?
- Author:
- Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Conventional wisdom suggests that the world is approaching a tripolar arms race among the United States, Russia, and China. As Russia attempts to dramatically revise the post-Cold War security environment in Europe, China is expected to increase its nuclear arsenal to at least 1,500 warheads by 2035. In 2021, the then-commander of US Strategic Command, Admiral Richard, laid out the challenge of nuclear tripolarity before Congress testifying that: “for the first time in our history, the nation is on a trajectory to face two nuclear-capable, strategic peer adversaries at the same time.” In this issue brief, the Scowcroft Center’s Matthew Kroenig challenges the evidence for action-reaction arms races in the post-Cold War period but warns we may be facing one in this new tripolar nuclear environment.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, Deterrence, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
10. Tehran Heightens the Pressure as it Strives to Thwart a Regional Air Defense System
- Author:
- Tamir Hayman and Sima Shine
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The heightened discussion of a “regional air defense alliance” was met by increased Iranian activity to block any such measure, including explicit threats that in turn prompted rejection of the idea by senior Gulf figures. It appears that at this stage, relations between Israel and the Gulf states that remain below the radar are preferable to grandiose public statements that do match the reality on the ground
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, Air Force, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East