Search

Begin New Search Topic Markets Publication Year within 25 Years

831. Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson and Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
his paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics–two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection–using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson’s (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correc- tion model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a “ratchet” variable that cap- tures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Finance, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

832. Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability

Author:
Stephanie E. Curcuru and Charles P. Thomas
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The sustainability of the large and persistent U.S. current account deficits is one of the biggest issues currently being confronted by international macroeconomists. Some very plausible theories suggest that the substantial global imbalances can continue in a benign manner, other equally plausible theories predict a disorderly resolution, and in general it is very difficult to discern between competing theories. To inform the debates, we view competing theories through the perspective of the relative reliability of the data the theories rely on. Our analysis of the dark matter theory is cursory; from a relative reliability perspective, it fails as it is built on the assumption that an item that is largely unmeasured is the most accurate component of the entire set of international accounts. Similarly, the best data currently available suggest that U.S. returns differentials are much smaller than implied by the exorbitant privilege theory. Our analysis opens up questions about potential inconsistencies in the international accounts, which we address by providing rough estimates of various holes in the accounts.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Investment
Political Geography:
United States and North America

833. Housing Market Risks in the United Kingdom

Author:
Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
House prices in the United Kingdom rose rapidly in recent years. The run-up, larger than any other in U.K. history, leveled off early last year. House prices are currently declining at rates faster than those seen in the early 1990’s downturn. The housing downturn, however, is far from complete. Using the price-rent ratio as a guide, house prices are likely to fall at least a further 30 percent before leveling off. Given the historic links between housing and real activity, the downturn is likely to be associated with very slow growth. Going forward, we recommend the price-rent ratio as the appropriate measure of housing valuation.
Topic:
Markets, Housing, and Rent
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

834. Credit Crisis: The Sky is not Falling

Author:
Anthony Downs
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
U.S. stock markets are gyrating on news of an apparent credit crunch generated by defaults among subprime home mortgage loans. Such frenzy has spurred Wall Street to cry capital crisis. However, there is no shortage of capital – only a shortage of confidence in some of the instruments Wall Street has invented. Much financial capital is still out there looking for a home.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

835. Seeking Common Grounds: Analysis of the Draft Proposals for the International Coffee Agreement

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The International Coffee Agreement (ICA) establishes the only dedicated intergovernmental forum for coffee-related matters: the International Coffee Organization (ICO). The ICO brings together various stakeholders—including coffeeimporting and coffee-exporting countries, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)—to discuss, negotiate, and cooperate on shared strategies and policies regarding the global coffee economy.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements

836. Upgrading in Agricultural Value Chains: The Case of Small Producers in Honduras

Author:
Ingrid Fromm
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Local producers, in their interaction with local processors or exporters and international retailers have the possibility to acquire new skills and knowledge. The type of trust relationship and coordination pattern can determine how information flows and how firms upgrade. In addition, the implementation and compliance with standards provides opportunities for learning and acquiring skills and knowledge. Focusing on this kind of interactions, the study explains how local producers in Honduras engage in upgrading and whether this had an impact on the sales of those firms. The majority of the producers in the sample upgraded their products and internal processes. A limited number of producers engaged in functional upgrading. Most of the producers were aware of the important role of standards. They affirmed that in the process of implementing and complying with standards, they have gained new knowledge and were convinced that they succeeded in securing at better position in the value chain.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Central America

837. Better Workers for Better Jobs: Improving Worker Advancement in the Low-Wage Labor Market

Author:
Harry J. Holzer
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper proposes a new federal funding stream to identify, expand, and replicate the most successful state and local initiatives designed to spur the advancement of low-wage workers in the United States. In the Worker Advancement Grants for Employment in States (WAGES) program, the federal government would offer up to $5 billion annually in matching funds for increases in state, local, and private expenditures on worker advancement initiatives. To gain funding, states would have to develop local advancement “systems,” which would provide career-oriented education and training to youth, working poor adults and “hard-to-employ” workers. Partnerships would be developed between local training providers (like community colleges), employer associations, and intermediaries. Additional financial supports for the working poor—including child care, transportation, and stipends for working students—would have to be funded as well. Initially, the WAGES program would require states to compete for federal grants, which would ultimately be renewable. The program would generate a “learning system” in which states would have an incentive to innovate and use information from other initiatives. The federal government would provide substantial technical assistance and oversight. Performance measurement and rigorous evaluation would be required for program renewal; states achieving substantial worker advancement would be awarded major bonuses and more rapid renewal of funding.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

838. Saluting Urban Market Pathfinders

Author:
Alyssa Stewart Lee
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
While many developers and investors intuitively believe in the potential for profitable returns in American cities, there is a lack of visibility into what works and what does not work in urban markets. This week the Urban Markets Initiative at the Brookings Institution honors Urban Market Pathfinders who have demonstrated excellence capturing market potential by investing in communities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Markets
Political Geography:
America

839. Reconnecting Massachusetts Gateway Cities: Lessons Learned and an Agenda for Renewal

Author:
Benjamin Forman, Rebecca Sohmer, Eric McLean-Shinaman, David Warren, John Schneider, and Mark Muro
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Could it be? Could it be that at least some of Massachusetts' long-suffering “Gateway Cities”—the state's once-humming mill and manufacturing towns—are ready to rejoin the state's economic mainstream? Yes, it could. Despite the latest blows of deindustrialization, signs of life are animating parts of the state's faded urban hubs beyond Boston.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets

840. Back to the Future: The Need for Patient Equity in Real Estate Development Finance

Author:
Christopher B. Leinberger
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the real estate field has begun applying many of the development strategies employed by a number of iconic developers active before 1940. J.C. Nichols (Country Club Plaza in Kansas City), George Merrick (Coral Gables, Florida), the Rockefeller family (Rockefeller Center), and others have become role models, their major developments emulated in recently revived downtowns, suburban town centers, New Urbanism projects, and transit oriented developments. But while nearly all of the attention today has been on the urban design lessons of these developers and their projects, there are financing lessons they can teach us as well.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Florida