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721. Jackknifing Stock Return Predictions

Author:
Erik Hjalmarsson and Benjamin Chiquoine
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We show that the general bias reducing technique of jackknifing can be successfully applied to stock return predictability regressions. Compared to standard OLS estimation, the jackknifing procedure delivers virtually unbiased estimates with mean squared errors that generally dominate those of the OLS estimates. The jackknifing method is very general, as well as simple to implement, and can be applied to models with multiple predictors and overlapping observations. Unlike most previous work on inference in predictive regressions, no specific assumptions regarding the data generating process for the predictors are required. A set of Monte Carlo experiments show that the method works well in finite samples and the empirical section finds that out-of-sample forecasts based on the jackknifed estimates tend to outperform those based on the plain OLS estimates. The improved forecast ability also translates into economically relevant welfare gains for an investor who uses the predictive regression, with jackknifed estimates, to time the market.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

722. Predicting Global Stock Returns

Author:
Erik Hjalmarsson
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
I test for stock return predictability in the largest and most comprehensive data set analyzed so far, using four common forecasting variables: the dividend- and earnings-price ratios, the short interest rate, and the term spread. The data contain over 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including 24 developed and 16 emerging economies. In addition, I develop new methods for predictive regressions with panel data. Inference based on the standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from severe size distortions in the typical stock return regression, and an alternative robust estimator is proposed. The empirical results indicate that the short interest rate and the term spread are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in developed markets. In contrast, no strong or consistent evidence of predictability is found when considering the earnings- and dividend-price ratios as predictors.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

723. Trade Elasticity of Substitution and Equilibrium Dynamics

Author:
Martin Bodenstein
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The empirical literature provides a wide range of estimates for trade elasticities at the aggregate level. Furthermore, recent contributions in international macroeconomics suggest that low (implied) values of the trade elasticity of substitution may play an important role in understanding the disconnect between international prices and real variables. However, a standard model of the international business cycle displays multiple locally isolated equilibria if the trade elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low. The main contribution of this paper is to compute and characterize some dynamic properties of these equilibria. While multiple steady states clearly signal equilibrium multiplicity in the dynamic setup, this is not a necessary condition. Solutions based on log-linearization around a deterministic steady state are of limited to no help in computing the true dynamics. However, the log-linear solution can hint at the presence of multiple dynamic equilibria.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

724. An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data

Author:
Enrique G. Mendoza and Marco E. Terrones
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and industrial economies over the past four decades. In addition, we use event study methods to identify the key empirical regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and micro-level data. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations, widening external deficits and managed exchange rates. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and firm-level measures of leverage, firm values, and external financing, and bank-level indicators of banking fragility. Credit booms in industrial and emerging economies show three major differences: (1) credit booms and the macro and micro fluctuations associated with them are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; (2) not all credit booms end in financial crises, but most emerging markets crises were associated with credit booms; and (3) credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

725. Policy Liberalization and FDI Growth, 1982 to 2006

Author:
Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the last three decades the global economy has expanded in a remarkable fashion. While nominal world GDP has increased four times, world bilateral trade flows have grown more than six-fold, and the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown by roughly 20 times since 1980. The sources of global trade and investment growth are well known—general economic expansion, policy liberalization, and better communications and technology—but the impact of each source is unclear. In this paper we attempt to uncover the contribution of policy liberalization to the rising ratios of US inward and outward FDI stocks to GDP over the last three decades.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

726. Procedural Legitimacy and Private Transnational Governance. Are the Good Ones Doing Better?

Author:
Marianne Beisheim and Klaus Dingwerth
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Private governance schemes deploy a significant share of their resources to advocate their legitimacy. Assuming that their primary concern is to ensure their own success, this suggests that the initiators of private governance schemes presume a strong relation between a scheme's perception as legitimate on the one hand and its success on the other. Based on this observation, this article explores the general hypothesis that the procedural legitimacy of private governance schemes – defined in terms of inclusiveness, transparency, and deliberativeness – enhances their prospects for success. We particularly focus on how right process may translate into effectiveness. To this end, the article identifies three mechanisms: the development of ownership based on inclusive, fair and representative participation; social learning and persuasion based on deliberative procedures; and social control based on transparency and accountability. The three mechanisms are subjected to a plausibility probe in an illustrative case study of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), a private governance scheme in the field of corporate sustainability politics. All in all, the study shows how the GRI's success can be related to procedural legitimacy. In particular, it suggests that while inclusiveness and deliberation are mostly relevant to gain legitimacy, transparency and accountability are primarily relevant to maintain the legitimacy of private transnational governance schemes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization

727. Executive Pay: Regulation vs. Market Competition

Author:
Ira T. Kay and Steven Van Putten
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The economic slowdown and the active political season are generating calls for imposing new regulations on executive pay. The presidential candidates of the two major parties have lashed out at what they perceive to be excessive pay for certain executives or for corporate executives in general.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Markets

728. Markets vs. Monopolies in Education: A Global Review of the Evidence

Author:
Andrew J. Coulson
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Would large-scale, free-market reforms improve educational outcomes for American children? That question cannot be answered by looking at domestic evidence alone. Though innumerable “school choice” programs have been implemented around the United States, none has created a truly free and competitive education marketplace. Existing programs are too small, too restriction laden, or both. To understand how genuine market forces affect school performance, we must cast a wider net, surveying education systems from all over the globe. The present paper undertakes such a review, assessing the results of 25 years of international research comparing market and government provision of education, and explaining why these international experiences are relevant to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

729. Regional energy security: An elusive objective?

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Energy issues are a central feature of economic and political debate. The debate focuses not only on the growing regional energy demands from China and India, but also on the cyclical and structural factors in the international energy market that are significant and that lead to considerable uncertainties about energy accessibility, prices and supply reliability. For the Asian region, considerations of supply security are increasingly part of global energy security concerns. The global debate about long-term resource availability and supply, particularly of oil and gas, centres on the questions of whether adequate resources will exist to meet growing global demands in the next twenty-plus years, or whether the resources are adequate but will not be brought to market because of underinvestment and related higher costs in the oil and gas industry. Options for alternative supply sources and alternative fuels are, at the same time, becoming constrained by concerns about the impacts on climate change and, in the case of biofuels, on food and feed supplies. Adjustments to the expected continuing increases in energy trend prices will be generally difficult for developed countries, including Australia, but especially so for developing countries including those in Asia.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

730. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Author:
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons