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641. Determinants of Recent Online Purchasing and the Percentage of Income Spent Online

Author:
Kristina M. Lybecker and Brendan Hannah
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Economics and Business, Colorado College
Abstract:
The recent stagnation of electronic commerce highlights the need to understand contemporary online consumer behavior. This study incorporates current user demographics and emerging Internet activities to dynamically model the determinants of two key measurements of recent online shopping, a purchase within the last year and the novel dependent variable, percentage of income spent online in the last three months. Logistic regression is applied to a nationally representative 2007 survey of the U.S. online population. Determinants of a recent online purchase include, ownership of a credit card, an online payment account (PayPalTM), listening to podcasts, participating in online auctions, and for the first time, female gender. In a second regression, positive determinants for the percentage of income spent online include male gender, educational attainment, online auctions, instant messenging and online dating. Online spending increases with time online and appears to compete with other forms of online entertainment and social networking.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

642. An Ounce of Prevention or a Pound of Cure? Short- and Long-Run Effects of Pharmaceutical Patents on U.S. Health Care

Author:
Daniel K. N. Johnson and Hilary S. Johnson
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Economics and Business, Colorado College
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between pharmaceutical R and health care expenditures, distinguishing between the short- and long-run impacts. To measure these relationships quantitatively, we focus on patents as a key factor driving the costs of pharmaceuticals, and develop a structured vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to measure the social rate of return to pharmaceutical research as protected by patents. We conclude with unambiguous results that pharmaceutical patents are not correlated with higher short-run prices in any measure of medical costs. They are associated with higher long-run prices in pharmaceuticals themselves, but with lower long-run prices in the aggregate medical sector which includes pharmaceuticals as a component part. Further, the TRIPS Agreement and Hatch-Waxman Act to enable generic competition have both been demonstrably effective at lowering prices across the spectrum of medical sector prices. We conclude that pharmaceutical patents may be economically medicinal themselves, acting as the 'ounce of prevention' that saves a 'pound of cure', the cure which would come in the form of even higher costs elsewhere in the medical sector.
Topic:
Economics, Health, and Markets

643. How globalization shapes individual risk perceptions and policy preferences

Author:
Stefanie Walter and Linda Maduz
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
How does globalization affect individuals and their perceptions and policy preferences? This paper uses new developments in international trade theory to propose a new way of conceptualizing and measuring the extent to which an individual can be characterized as globalization winner or loser. We argue that the distributional effect of exposure to international competition is conditional on individuals' ability. Low-ability workers exposed to the international economy face lower wages and higher risk of unemployment, and can therefore be characterized as globalization losers. In contrast, high-ability workers receive higher wages when they are exposed to international competition are therefore identified as globalization winners. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach for political scientists, the paper revisits the debate about the determinants of social policy preferences. Using crossnational survey data from 16 countries we show that globalization has significant and heterogenous individual-level effects. Exposure to globalization increases risk perceptions and demands for more income redistribution among individuals with low levels of education (as a proxy for ability), but decreases these perceptions and demands among highly educated respondents.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, and Political Theory

644. Ottoman De-Industrialization 1800-1913: Assessing the Shock, Its Impact and the Response

Author:
Jeffrey G. Williamson and Şevket Pamuk
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
India and Britain were much bigger players in the 18th century world market for textiles than was Egypt, the Levant and the core of the Ottoman Empire, but these eastern Mediterranean regions did export carpets, silks and other textiles to Europe and the East. By the middle of the 19th century, they had lost most of their export market and much of their domestic market to globalization forces and rapid productivity growth in European manufacturing. Other local industries also suffered decline, and these regions underwent de-industrialization as a consequence. How different was Ottoman experience from the rest of the poor periphery? Was de-industrialization more or less pronounced? Was the terms of trade shock bigger or smaller? How much of Ottoman de-industrialization was due to falling world trade barriers—ocean transport revolutions and European liberal trade policy, how much due to factory-based productivity advance in Europe, how much to declining Ottoman competitiveness in manufacturing, how much to Ottoman railroads penetrating the interior, and how much to Ottoman policy? The paper uses a price-dual approach to seek the answers. It documents trends in export and import prices, relative to each other and to non-tradables, as well as to the unskilled wage. The impact of globalization, European productivity advance, Ottoman wage costs and policy are assessed by using a simple neo-Ricardian three sector model, and by comparison with what was taking place in the rest of the poor periphery.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Turkey, India, and Egypt

645. EIU Quarterly Global Outlook Webinar

Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis

646. Blood Oil in the Niger Delta

Author:
Judith Burdin Asuni
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The trade in stolen oil, or “blood oil,” poses an immense challenge to the Nigerian state, harming its economy and fueling a long-running insurgency in the Niger Delta. It also undermines security in the Gulf of Guinea and adds to instability on world energy markets. The exact amount of oil stolen per day in the Niger Delta is unknown, but it is somewhere between 30,000 and 300,000 barrels. The loss to the Nigerian economy from illegal oil bunkering between 2003 and 2008 totals approximately US$100 billion. It is time for the international community to become more proactive in helping Nigeria address this complex issue. Efforts to control blood oil must be accompanied by actions against corruption, illegal arms importation, and money laundering. The enabling environment for illegal oil bunkering includes high levels of unemployed youth, armed ethnic militias, ineffective and corrupt law enforcement officials, protective government officials and politicians, corrupt oil company staff, established international markets for stolen oil, and the overall context of endemic corruption. The three types of illegal oil bunkering include small-scale pilfering for the local market, large-scale tapping of pipelines to fill large tankers for export, and excess lifting of crude oil beyond the licensed amount. The complexity of players in the illegal oil bunkering business, including local youth, members of the Nigerian military and political class, and foreign ship owners, makes it difficult to tackle the problem unilaterally. Previous attempts by the Nigerian government and international community to address illegal oil bunkering have had limited success in reducing the flow of blood oil. The problem of blood oil needs to be addressed multilaterally. Within the international community, the United States is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in helping to dry up blood oil and address other issues in the Niger Delta.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Markets, Oil, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Nigeria, and Guinea

647. Getting Off Lightly? The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Juliane Brach and Markus Loewe
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The international financial crisis has hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), like other developing regions, unexpectedly, during a long phase of above-average growth. In contrast to other parts of the world, however, most MENA developing countries will able to get off lightly if the crisis does not last for too long. In Turkey and Israel, the region's more industrialized countries, different initial conditions apply and the situation is not comparable to the Arab MENA countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

648. Aid, Paris and the Private Sector: How to Square the Circle

Author:
Jørgen Estrup
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Support for private sector development is an important item on the ODA budgets of most donor countries and recently, there has even been an upsurge in the weight given to 'private sector led growth'. In this working paper, Jørgen Estrup, an independent senior adviser with comprehensive experience in aid programmes supporting the private sector in developing countries, provides an overview of recent trends in donor support to private sector development. The paper goes through the history of and rationale for support to the private sector, and it identifies a number of distinct approaches to the subject. Moreover, the paper discusses these approaches in the context of the Paris Declaration and notes a conspicuous lack of coherence between the approaches to private sector development and the principles of the Declaration.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Paris

649. Oil-rent Boom in Iran?

Author:
Martin Beck
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The present article aims to analyze the effects of high oil prices since 2003 on Iran. The theoretical basis of the analysis is the rentier state approach, the basic element of which is that rents are at the free disposal of the rentier. Empirically, the paper examines the issue areas of foreign policy, domestic policy and economic policy. After proving that the oil price—despite fluctuations—has constantly been at a high level in the first decade of the twenty‐first century, the discussion demonstrates that Iran has used the increased rent in‐come to support a populist policy. In terms of economic policy, the regime has pursued a redistributive strategy. The country's foreign policy, particularly the ostentatiously pursued atomic program, has been very expensive since it provoked sanctions whose costs were initially balanced only by high rent income. Yet, in his first term, Ahmadinejad failed to prepare Iran for the situation that has occurred as a result of the global financial crisis: the redistributive policy of the regime has meant that an oil price below US$70 or US$75 now constitutes a severe challenge for the Iranian state budget.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, Oil, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

650. The Gloomy Prospects for World Growth

Author:
Steven Dunaway
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The seeds of the current economic and financial crisis were sown by economic policies of the major countries that fostered the growth of global imbalances during the 2000s. Consequently, an essential element in any assessment of prospects for world economic recovery and the pace of future growth has to factor in exactly how these imbalances are likely to unwind—or fail to be resolved—in the period immediately ahead.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States