Search

Begin New Search Topic Markets Publication Year within 25 Years

621. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

622. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2012 (Volume 1 : Europe centrale et orientale)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Jacques Rupnik, Céline Bayou, Edith Lhomel, and Catherine Samary
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
L’Europe centrale et orientale ne se porte globalement pas aussi mal qu’on l’écrit parfois et, d’une certaine manière, nettement mieux que l’Europe occidentale et que la zone euro en particulier. Avant la crise déjà, elle se singularisait par une croissance élevée, qui atteignait 4 % par an en 2008 pour les dix nouveaux membres de l’Union européenne (UE), contre 0,5 % pour les quinze pays de la zone euro. Son taux de chômage était inférieur d’environ 6,5 % à celui constaté dans ladite zone. En outre, dûment chapitrée par les institutions financières internationales, elle pouvait faire état d’une discipline exemplaire en matière de finances publiques, avec une dette qui ne dépassait pas 30 % du PIB pour la grande majorité des seize pays étudiés ici (voir les tableaux synthétiques à la fin de ce chapitre) et était très inférieure à ce niveau pour plusieurs d’entre eux. Quant au déficit des finances publiques, calculé à partir de la moyenne des seize pays, il était inférieur à 3 % du PIB. A tout cela s’ajoute la bonne tenue d’ensemble d’un jeune système bancaire qui, pourtant dépendant de maisons mères occidentales ayant subi le choc de la crise, ne s’est pas effondré malgré les sinistres avertissements des Cassandres : les pays baltes ont bénéficié de liens très forts avec les riches systèmes bancaires de l’Europe du Nord, les pays de l’Europe centrale (à l’exception de la Slovénie) ont su constituer au cours de la transition des banques saines, et les établissements de l’Europe du Sud-Est ont été, au moins momentanément, sauvés par l’action conjuguée des institutions financières internationales dans le cadre des deux « Initiatives de Vienne ».
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Politics, Governance, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, Latvia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Central Europe, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

623. Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2012

Author:
Mélanie Albaret, Hélène Combes, Olivier Compagnon, Olivier Dabène, Lorenza Belinda Fontana, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Charles-André Goulet, Nordin Lazreg, Kevin Parthenay, Gustavo Pastor, Thomas Posado, Darío Rodriguez, Camila Minerva Rodriguez Tavárez, and Jérôme Sgard
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Le Political Outlook 2012 de l’Amérique latine est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site internet www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clefs de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires à cette publication sont disponibles sur le site.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Markets, Political Economy, Politics, History, Finance, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, Latin America, Bolivia, and El Salvador

624. From “Cardinal Sin” to Policy Agenda? The Role of Capital Controls in Emerging Market Economies

Author:
June Park
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Korea’s economic development since the 1980s has occurred in the context of capital controls and a strong governmental role in achieving sustained growth. The experiences of two financial crises—the Asian financial crisis (1997–98) and the global financial crisis (2008–09)—confirm the impression of a highly responsive state, although different pictures emerge as to how the Korean government sought to abolish or deploy capital controls in accordance with global consensus and intellectual trends in international political economy. Contrary to the policies of financial liberalization by the Korean government in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government shifted to a policy direction favoring capital controls following the global financial crisis, as seen in recent Group of 20 proclamations. However, given the necessity of capital inflows for an outward-oriented economy such as Korea’s, which is heavily dependent on foreign capital inflows for investment, it is questionable to what extent Korea can effectively take advantage of capital controls, what the goals of such controls should be, whether there will be strong political backing for implementation of such policies, and what political risks the current government faces in implementing new capital controls. This paper seeks to provide answers to these questions by examining Korea’s initiatives for capital controls in light of its history and the surge of capital inflows to emerging market economies since the global financial crisis.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

625. Global Development - Democracy, Market and Transparency 2011

Author:
Gabriel C. Salvia and Hernán Alberro
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
Chile heads the regional ranking, rising one position to 15th overall since 2010, overtaking Austria. Uruguay is the second country in the regional ranking and finds itself in 23rd place worldwide. Costa Rica continues its descent, losing five places since 2010 but maintaining its third place in the regional ranking, followed by Panama.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Markets, Democracy, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, Syria, Chile, and New Zealand

626. Firm Characteristics and Em

Author:
Leonid Kogan and Mary Tian
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
"A three-factor model using the standardized-unexpected-earnings and cashflow-to-price factors explains 15 well-known asset pricing anomalies." Our data-mining experiment provides a backdrop against which such claims can be evaluated. We construct three-factor linear pricing models that match return spreads associated with as many as 15 out of 27 commonly used firm characteristics over the 1971-2011 sample. We form target assets by sorting firms into ten portfolios on each of the chosen characteristics and form candidate pricing factors as long-short positions in the extreme decile portfolios. Our analysis exhausts all possible 351 three-factor models, consisting of two characteristic-based factors in addition to the market portfolio. 65% of the examined factor models match a larger fraction of the target return cross-sections than the CAPM or the Fama-French three-factor model. We find that the relative performance of the complete set of three-factor models is highly sensitive to the sample choice and the factor construction methodology. Our results highlight the challenges of evaluating empirical factor models.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Economic Theory, Data, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

627. Institutional Herding in the Corporate Bond Market

Author:
Fang Cai, Song Han, and Dan Li
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We find substantial herding in U.S. corporate bonds among bond fund managers, much higher than that previously documented for the equity market. Herding is generally stronger among illiquid bonds, and buy herding and sell herding are driven by different factors. In particular, sell herding increases on negative news about bond ratings and corporate earnings. Interestingly, increases in ex-post transparency in corporate bond trading through Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) led to higher buy herding but not to higher sell herding. Finally, we find significant return reversals in the post-herding quarters, especially for sell herding and for junk bonds. Price reversal is most prominent when funds herd to sell illiquid bonds, which suggests that temporary price pressure is the reason behind price reversal.
Topic:
Markets, Business, Investment, Corporations, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

628. How to improve the economic and social performance of Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries

Author:
Luc De Wulf and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region has many advantages. Its proximity to European markets and its strategic location along the Mediterranean Sea help facilitate the trade of goods among Europe, Asia and Africa. The region has great historical and civilizational importance. It also has plentiful supplies of oil and natural gas resources and great demographic potential. Yet despite these many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. In this brief the authors analyze the key challenges facing the MED11 countries and propose policy measures that could improve the region’s economic and social performance.
Topic:
Markets, Macroeconomics, Trade, Economic Integration, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Mediterranean

629. The Single Market in need of a strategic relaunch

Author:
Tinne Heremans
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 27th of October 2010 the Commission finally published its long-awaited Communication “Towards a Single Market Act” with the ambitious objective of relaunching the Single Market. It is beyond doubt that the market integration project is indeed in need of a serious boost. On the one hand, the “acquis” should be buttressed more firmly against protectionist reactions, citizen distrust and integration lethargy more generally. On the other hand, the untapped growth potential – in domains suffering from persistent bottlenecks as well as in new sectors – needs to be better exploited. It will however be argued in this contribution that, in its present form, the Commission's “Draft Single Market Act” (Draft SMA) does not contain all the strategic building blocks needed to address the key challenge of reengaging the different actors in the market integration project and genuinely revamp the Single Market. Therefore, on the basis of an examination of the gaps and defaults in the Draft SMA's approach, and against the background of the preparatory documents presented by Mario Monti and the European Parliament, some suggestions for possible strategic improvements to be included in the final SMA will be made.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

630. Renewed Financial Supervision in Europe – Final or transitory?

Author:
Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In order to obtain financial sector stability, adequate financial regulation and supervision are paramount. Despite their crucial role, both failed to prevent or at least mitigate the financial crisis. While financial regulation strives to impose a set of rules that ensure a safe and resilient financial sector, it has proven to contain too many gaps and loopholes.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe