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301. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

302. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU

Author:
Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

303. The South East Europe Pipeline: Greater Benefit for a Greater Number of Actors

Author:
Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP), proposed by BP in late September 2011, could eventually be the pipeline carrying Azeri gas to European markets. Compared to its competitors in the Southern Corridor concept - Nabucco, TAP and ITGI - it goes furthest in terms of optimality for all the parties involved. The combined advantages of its size, scalability, usage of existing gas infrastructure in Europe and direction, promises a more reasonable economic and political value for the Shah Deniz Consortium, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, while posing a bearable challenge to Russia. The SEEP seems to offer a greater value to a greater number of actors.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Azerbaijan

304. The structure and dynamics of cut flower export markets from Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Brian D. Perry
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report is part of a broad study of trade preferences and market conditions between various developing countries and Norway, conducted under the auspices of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Norway's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established in 1971. From 2002 Norway has provided duty and quota free market access (DQF-MA) for all goods from all the 50 least developed countries (LDCs3). In 2005 the results of a review of Norway's GSP were published (Melchior, 20054), which showed that agricultural products from developing countries other than LDCs were still subject to substantial tariffs, and this contrasted dramatically with advantages given to European trading partners. As a result, from 1 January 2008 changes were made to Norway's GSP5. An important adjustment was that 14 low income countries that were not part of the LDC group were included in the provision for duty and quota-free market access (DQFMA). Consequently, 64 low income countries now benefit from DQFMA to Norway for all their goods.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Norway, and Ethiopia

305. A case study of Norway's beef trade from developing countries

Author:
Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, and Brian D. Perry
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Norway has traditionally operated a rather closed, managed market for beef importsnder WTO-auspices, Norway operates a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef that allows the entry of a small amount of product at a relatively low tariff rate, with higher rates of duty imposed on imports over the quota. There are several different TRQs of relevance to boneless beef. The main quota is the WTO quota, which allows for the annual import of 1,084 tons of frozen beef at an in-quota duty rate of NOK 33,60/kg for boneless cuts. Countries with ordinary GSP access receive a 30 percent discount on this duty, so that the in-quota GSP tariff is NOK 23,52/kg. The WTO quota is administered once per year by an auction system – table 6 provides a list of the prices and volumes for the 2011 WTO quota. For imports outside the WTO quota, the duty is 119,01 NOK/kg, with GSP countries paying 10 percent less at NOK 107,11/kg.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Norway

306. Capable Companies or Changing Markets? Explaining the Export Performance of Firms in the Defence Industry

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci and Arne Fevolden
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper carries out an empirical analysis of the factors explaining the export performance of firms in the defence sector. We focus on the case of Norway, and make use of two complementary methodologies: the first is based on quantitative firm-level data analysis for the whole population of defence companies, and the second is based on qualitative case study research on the three most important defence export products (weapon stations, ammunition, electronics). Our empirical results highlight the importance of four major success factors for exporting firms: (1) the participation in offset agreements; (2) the ability to focus on their set of core competencies; (3) their R activities and interactions with the public S system; (4) demand opportunities and, relatedly, user-producer interactions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Norway

307. Defence Firms Facing Liberalization: Innovation and Export in an Agent-based Model of the Defence Industry

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci, Arne Fevolden, and Martin Blom
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper presents an agent-based simulation model of the defence industry. The model resembles some of the key characteristics of the European defence sector, and studies how firms in this market will respond to the challenges and opportunities provided by a higher degree of openness and liberalization in the future. The simulation analysis points out that European defence firms will progressively become more efficient, less dependent on public procurement and innovation policy support, and more prone to knowledge sharing and inter-firm collaborations. This firmlevel dynamics will in the long-run lead to an increase in the industry's export propensity and a less concentrated market.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

308. This Time Is Not Different: Blaming Short Sellers

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Reinhart and Rogoff's timely volume, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009), makes it abundantly clear that financial crises are protracted affairs. The title of this policy brief highlights the irony of lessons never learned. History, in the form of recurring economic crises, does indeed repeat itself. Nevertheless, a closer look at Reinhart and Rogoff's often-publicized conclusion reveals that there are remarkable variations across individual countries' experiences, as well as across time. For example, the actual severity of crises can be exacerbated when a banking crisis is accompanied by a currency crisis. Most importantly, the severity of the recession that typically accompanies all types of financial crises is often determined by the response of policy makers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Governance

309. Gold Exchange Standard in its 40th Year of Abolition: Jacques Rueff Re-Visited

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
While the post-war international monetary system that evolved under the leadership of the U.S. dollar has secured credit abundance – and hence contributed to global growth – the system has also revealed its deficiencies already by 1950's. In contrary to the 1930's when the world's main problem was chronic deflation; two decades later, the problem has become chronic inflation and fiscal deficits. Since then many blamed the indiscipline of the Keynesian school of thought and the inability of the U.S. dollar to become a global “public good” by being a stable international currency. In this Policy Brief, I overview the many aspects of the post-war international monetary system through the lens of the post-war French economist, Jacques Rueff, and question the applicability of his longproposed gold standard in today's highly integrated and speculative money markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

310. In search of food security: Addressing opacity and price volatility in ASEAN's rice sector

Author:
Sally Trethewie
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
Given that volatility in rice prices is expected to continue, governments in Southeast Asia should consider policy measures to address the factors that impact price formation and stability. The non- transparent nature of the way rice is traded in Southeast Asia is contrary to the free-trade rationale of ASEAN agricultural trade policy and food security frameworks. The underlying dynamic of opacity (of information) is the reason for policy decisions that contribute to instability in rice price formation. In particular, limited information on the availability of rice and composition of trade deals results in misinformed purchasing behaviour, particularly during price shocks. The lack of transparency perpetuates distrust in the regional rice market, leading countries to disengage from the market and instead pursue economically inefficient self- sufficiency strategies.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia