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321. Inequality, Debt Servicing, and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth

Author:
Mark Setterfield, Yun K. Kim, and Jeremy Rees
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance. A Kaleckian growth model is modified to incorporate working households who borrow to finance consumption that is determined, in part, by the desire to emulate the consumption patterns of more affluent households. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of income inequality. When compared to previous contributions to the literature, our results show that the way in which debtor households service their debt has both quantitative and qualitative effects on the economy’s macrodynamics.
Topic:
Debt, Inequality, Islamic State, Economic Theory, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

322. Islam and International Order

Author:
Marc Lynch, Barak Mendelsohn, Reyko Huang, Lawrence Rubin, and Elizabeth Shakman Hurd
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Islam has rarely been far from the center of the world’s political and security agenda in the decade and a half since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack against the United States. The range of issues to which Islam has been deemed central is staggering, from transnational terrorism and counterinsurgency in Iraq to the possibility of democracy in the Middle East. These long-running debates have been galvanized over the last few years by the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, shocking acts of terrorism from Paris to Tunisia, and the failure of the democratic experiment with Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt. In April 2015 the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Transatlantic Academy hosted a workshop for a sustained discussion of emerging questions on Islam and international order. The two-day workshop brought together a broad, interdisciplinary group of scholars, including area specialists and generalists, from the fields of political science, religious studies and history. The workshop, part of the POMEPS Islam in a Changing Middle East initiative, built on the Transatlantic Academy’s 2015 theme of religion and foreign policy. Peter Katzenstein of Cornell University, in his keynote address, put the question of Islam squarely within the racial and civilizational politics of a declining American imperium. This historical and global perspective provoked a wide-ranging discussion. Islam has played many roles in many different regional and global political orders, as Cemil Aydin, Bruce Lawrence and Jonathan Brown evocatively explained. And, as Amitav Acharya forcefully argued, Islam has routinely frustrated the expectations of popular grand theories of world order. The workshop ranged widely over the question of how to think about Islam within global, regional and domestic political arenas, from a diverse range of empirical cases and theoretical literatures. Can Islam really be understood as an actor, with interests and a coherent identity? Is there something unique about Islam that prevents it from being treated theoretically like other cultural traditions such as nationalism, ethnicity or ideology? Should Islam be seen as a causal variable or as a context through which actors pursue their interests and fight their political battles? What are we doing, conceptually and politically, when we describe political thought as “Islamic political thought,” movements as “Islamic movements,” or democracy as “Islamic democracy”? The essays prepared for this workshop are available here as POMEPS Studies 15. Several key themes ran through the discussions. First, several of the memos specifically focus on the emergence of the Islamic State. Marc Lynch surveys the central analytical arguments that have been deployed to explain the Islamic State Caliphate’s development, noting the very different policy responses each might elicit. Barak Mendelsohn and Reyko Huang evaluate the Islamic State in the history of jihadist groups and insurgencies, and Lawrence Rubin argues that ideational balancing will prevent the Islamic State from becoming a normal state.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Islamic State, Political Science, and International Order
Political Geography:
Middle East

323. Islamism in the IS Age

Author:
Jillian Schwedler, Peter Mandayille, Ahmed Khanani, Quinn Mecham, and Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The “IS-ification of Islamist politics,” in Khalil al-Anani’s felicitous phrase, has reshaped the ideological and strategic incentives for Islamist groups and their adversaries. It has also posed a new challenge to the categories, concepts and expectations of the academics who study them. In January, the Project on Middle East Political Science brought together more than a dozen leading scholars of Islamist movements to discuss the Islamic State and its effects on the broader terrain of Islamist politics. Some of the papers prepared for that workshop have been published on The Monkey Cage already and all are now collected into a new edition in the POMEPS Studies series “Islamism in the IS Age,” available for free download here. The challenge posed by the Islamic State can be broken down into a number of discrete areas. First, there is the effort to understand the nature of the group itself: its ideology, its organization and its likely future prospects. Second, there are questions about its relationship and impacts upon other groups, from the very similar (al-Qaeda) to the essentially different (the Muslim Brotherhood). Third, there are important analytical questions about the relative significance of ideology, institutions and strategic competition. It is useful to be precise about which of the arguments that consume the public sphere, such as how “Islamic” the organization is, really matter. The same is true of whether the analytical categories such as the “moderate/radical” divide or the distinction between Salafi-jihadists and mainstream Islamists still offer useful leverage. While its novelty and long-term significance may well be overstated, the Islamic State has indisputably reshaped the region’s strategic and intellectual agenda. Its rapid capture of territory through large swathes of Iraq and Syria and declaration of a new caliphate provoked a military response from the United States and have become the principle focus of a broad international coalition. It poses an intriguing ideational challenge to the norms of state sovereignty that underlie international society. Its penchant for broadcasting barbaric spectacles such as decapitations and burning alive of its hostages galvanized the attention of a horrified world. The Islamic State has built a seemingly robust proto-state in the territories it controls, and has seemingly established affiliates, with varying degrees of success, in areas such as Egypt’s Sinai and Libya. Its ability to attract foreign fighters and seeming appeal to certain radical trends has provoked a new round of alarm over domestic radicalization and terrorist threats. All of those effects are exacerbated by the frenzied media coverage of these developments in both the West and the Arab world.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Political Science, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Middle East

324. Daesh Trumps Assad Amid Shifting International Priorities in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the Syrian crisis enters its fifth year, regional and international priorities in Syria have changed as a result of Daesh or the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s expansion. Attempts to repackage the conflict and transform its essence into “fighting terrorism” have increased. In this context, initiatives have been launched to revamp the Syrian regime’s image on the grounds that the conditions that led to the first Geneva Communique no longer exist.(1) However, the prospect that Assad’s regime can be rehabilitated to make it acceptable domestically, regionally or internationally are at best a delusion. The regime’s repressive policies during the years that followed the revolution’s outbreak has made it a polarising rather than a unifying actor, one that has broken all possible lines of political capital and made its institutions even more sectarian during the crisis. In addition, armed groups representing divergent trends have emerged, and they will necessarily play a major role in any future arrangement, one that will not present itself unless power is redistributed in a way that changes the existing system’s structure.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

325. Risks of Egypt’s Military Intervention in Libya

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
An armed group calling itself the Tripoli Province of the Islamic State executed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in the Libyan city of Sirte last week, sparking a global wave of anger. This provoked the Egyptian government to launch hasty air raids; however, these raids surprisingly did not target Sirte, where the executions took place, but rather the city of Darna, killing and wounding civilians. This paper argues that the Egyptian government’s strikes were retaliatory and misguided by any standards. Not only did the air strikes clearly hit civilian targets, but the extent of damage, if any, inflicted on rebels belonging to the Darna Mujahideen Shura Council is still unclear. Also unclear are the whereabouts of the rebels and their camps, raising speculations about whether the air raids were just a prelude to wider Egyptian intervention, as well as the nature and extent of any such intervention.
Topic:
Government, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

326. Held Hostage: Analyses of Kidnapping Across Time and Among Jihadist Organizations

Author:
Daniel Milton and Seth Loertscher
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In March 2013, David Haines and Frederico Motka were kidnapped while traveling together near the Turkish border in Syria. The men were both foreigners and aid workers. They were held in the same prison by the same militant group. Yet they suffered sharply different fates. In May 2014, Motka was released, while four months later, Haines became the fourth Westerner to be beheaded by the Islamic State. Press accounts noted that the major difference between the men was their nationality: Motka was Italian; Haines was British. In the summer of 2014, the Islamic State began its campaign of public executions of kidnapped Westerners. Though these barbaric acts captured the world’s attention, hostage taking is not new. Nevertheless, research designed to increase understanding of this threat is limited. Most discussions regarding kidnappings rely on anecdotal evidence, and a more detailed analysis of key questions regarding the role of group type, nationality of the victim, and outcome as they relate to kidnapping incidents has been lacking for want of publicly available data. In an effort to address this, the CTC presents “Held Hostage: Analyses of Kidnapping Across Time and Among Jihadist Organizations,” which examines trends related to the kidnapping of Westerners by jihadist groups based on data from a newly gathered open-source dataset of the kidnapping of Westerners from 2001–2015. The CTC has also publicly released the data along with this report (click here to access the database). We believe that the report and accompanying data will be an important resource for policymakers, practitioners, and academics interested in this area.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Boko Haram, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Haqqani Network, and Kidnapping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia

327. Daesh Hype about Stealing Nuclear Weapons

Author:
David Albright and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
With Daesh1 entrenched in Syria and Iraq and growing in influence in North Africa and Pakistan, the risk is likely to grow that the terrorist group or one of its allies will seek nuclear weapons. Or at least this is what they want the world to think since their publications imply these intentions. But Daesh’s public claims of ways to accomplish that goal are unfounded and mainly seem intended to simply incite fear. At ISIS, we assess that the risk of Daesh acquiring nuclear weapons is low. However, that characterization needs to be carefully considered. The chance of Daesh acquiring a nuclear weapon, either through theft of a functioning nuclear weapon, or of nuclear explosive material followed by the manufacturing of a crude nuclear explosive, is assessed as low, similar to the risk of a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the Chernobyl and Fukishima disasters. However, although the chance of Daesh stealing a nuclear weapon is low, the consequences would be horrible and extraordinary efforts need to be waged to ensure that the risk becomes even lower. A nuclear explosive going off in a major city would have catastrophic consequences, probably far worse than those of Chernobyl or Fukishima.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Middle East

328. Irak 2014 | Iraq 2014

Author:
Rıdvan Kalaycı and Recep Tayyip Gürler
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Irak için 2014, birçok alanda kaosun, krizin ve şiddetin hüküm sürdüğü bir yıl olmuştur. IŞİD’in saldırıları, muhalif Sünnilerin hükümete karşı silahlanması, Şii milislerin savaşa aktif olarak geri dönmesi ve ABD öncülüğündeki koalisyon saldırıları nedeniyle Irak toprakları tam bir savaş alanına dönmüştür. Hem çatışmalar hem de düşen petrol fiyatları nedeniyle Irak ekonomisi 2014 yılında da beklenen gelişmeyi gösterememiştir. Diğer yandan gergin bir atmosferde gerçekleşen 30 Nisan parlamento seçimlerinin ardından sekiz yıllık Nuri el-Maliki dönemi sona ermiş ve Haydar el-Abadi başbakan olmuştur. Yeni yönetimle birlikte Ankara ile Bağdat arasındaki resmi temaslar da hızlanmış ve ilişkiler gelişmeye başlamıştır. | 2014 was a year of chaos, crisis and violence in many areas for Iraq. Because of ISIS’s attacks, arming of opponent Sunnis, returning of Shiite militias to struggle actively and the US-led coalition attacks, Iraq territories were transformed into a battlefield. Due to these conflicts and falling of oil prices, Iraq’s 2014 economy was worse than the previous year. On the other hand, as a result of April 30 general elections, eight year Maliki government ended and Haydar Abadi rulership began. Thanks to new government in Iraq, official visits increased and relations between Ankara and Baghdad began to develop.
Topic:
Government, Islamic State, Conflict, and Militias
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

329. Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraqʹs “Paper Trail,” 2005‐2010

Author:
Jon Wallace, Jacob N. Shapiro, Pat Ryan, and Danielle F. Jung
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
A cornerstone of strategic thinking is a clear understanding of one’s opponent. Developing such an understanding in dealing with the Islamic State (IS) is challenging. Constraints on access to the frontlines in Iraq and Syria make it unusually hard for researchers to ground assessments in evidence‐based approaches. This occasional paper contributes to the development of an empirically grounded understanding of the IS by analyzing the finances and management of the group’s predecessor, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), which changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in April 2013 and then the Islamic State in June 2014. There is a direct line of descent from Al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) through the Islamic State of Iraq to today’s Islamic State, despite changes in the group’s territorial holdings and the announced scale of its ambitions. Using historical documents to understand how AQI and the ISI were run can therefore help us better understand the current incarnation of the group, as well as the strengths and weaknesses it may have inherited.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

330. The Islamic State

Author:
The Soufan Group
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political, and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity.”
Topic:
Terrorism, International Security, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Global Focus