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221. Jihadist propaganda, offline: Strategic communications in modern warfare

Author:
Haid Haid and Charlie Winter
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Insurgent strategic communication has rarely posed as great a threat to regional and international security as it does today in Syria, where jihadists are using it to aggressively advance their short- and long-term interests. Using a qualitative mixed-methods approach incorporating semi-structured interviews with activists and journalists operating inside Syria and in-depth, longitudinal content analysis, this paper compares and contrasts the in-theater outreach strategies of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, tracking how each has used propaganda and censorship to entrench its rule over local constituents in recent years. It demonstrates that, notwithstanding the fact that both organizations share the same ideology, there are significant tactical and strategic disparities between their respective approaches toward public diplomacy, disparities that run right to the heart of what drives their enmity for each other.
Topic:
Media, Islamic State, Propaganda, Jihad, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

222. The Rise of Violent Transnational Movements in the Middle East: Historical Context, Dynamic Drivers and Policy Takeaways

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The conditions that brought about the rise and spread of violent transnational movements in the Middle East are complex and have been long in the making. In order to address the existence of V.T.M.s, the region must address the political and socio-economic challenges that provide the space for such groups to arise, foremost the lack of strong and legitimate state structures. This paper strives to provide the necessary historical and theoretical context in order to understand the enablers of V.T.M.s in today’s Middle East. Within this contextualized framework, the paper proceeds to consider strategies to reverse the V.T.M. trend.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Transnational Actors, and State
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

223. ISLAMIC STATE IN EAST AFRICA

Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) may be on the back-foot in Iraq and Syria, but it retains various chapters across the globe. The Islamic State in Somalia is one of them; but beyond a general notion that it has established a presence, available analysis of IS’s capabilities, appeal, and trajectory remains scant. This report, produced by the European Institute of Peace together with The Global Strategy Network and Hiraal, sheds light on those aspects of IS across East Africa, with a prominent focus on Somalia.
Topic:
Religion, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and East Africa

224. Understanding Nonstate Actor Behavior: The Determinants of Mass Atrocities

Author:
Cyanne E. Loyle
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In 2014, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) began a pattern of systematically targeting the Yezidi population in northern Iraq.1 That aggression involved violent attacks on civilians, forced relocation, starvation, and large-scale massacres. In its 2016 report on this topic, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum argued that this behavior by the IS is genocide (Kikoler 2016). What explains the IS’s tactical decision to engage in such behavior? How representative is this action across other rebel groups and violent nonstate actors? The recent surge in violence by groups such as IS and Boko Haram, along with their deliberate targeting of civilians, has intensified the need to understand the conditions under which nonstate groups choose to deliberately and systematically target civilians for extermination. To date, most of our research into genocide and mass atrocities has focused on those actions perpetrated by state actors. Yet current events have increased the need to understand this behavior across nonstate groups as well. Furthermore, although a well-developed academic literature exists on the civilian targeting behavior of rebel groups, that work has not addressed the tactical variation of groups that choose to systematically target civilians for extermination through large-scale, repeated attacks. In other words, although we have considered the strategy and rationale for civilian targeting, we have yet to systematically investigate the conditions that lead nonstate actors to commit mass atrocities. This paper sets out to address the question of the conditions under which nonstate actor (NSA) groups commit mass atrocities. That is, when do NSAs choose to deliberately, and on a large scale, target civilians? Understanding the use of this tactic across NSA groups has important implications for how we understand NSA behavior, as well as how we design and implement policy to prevent that behavior. This paper provides an overview of the data collection, research design, and data analysis completed for the 2016–17 Leonard and Sophie Davis Fellowship at the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide. This project aims to address the structural conditions, conflict, and group characteristics that make mass atrocity behavior by nonstate actors more likely with the intention of developing policy prescriptions to reduce or halt this behavior in the future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Islamic State, Atrocities, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Global Focus

225. Fighting Fire with Fire: The Growing Nexus between Atrocity Prevention and Counterterrorism and Its Implications for the Use of Force to Protect Civilians

Author:
Colin Thomas-Jensen
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
By the fall of 2014, before the United States and its partners began the military campaign to erode the territory held by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, the international community understood the horrors endured by civilians living under IS control. While IS leadership plotted politically motivated attacks against its enemies in the region and in the West, reports trickling out from areas under the group’s merciless grip and IS’s own online propaganda clearly indicated a grave pattern of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including violence targeted at ethnic and religious minorities; women; the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community; and other vulnerable groups. As the United States considered its response to the rise of IS, the duality of the group’s threat—an external one to Americans and American interests and an internal one to civilians living in IS-held areas—animated two communities of US policy makers that had rarely interacted with one another: those focused on counterterrorism and atrocity prevention. The US-led military operation to prevent genocide by IS against the Yazidi community on Mount Sinjar, Iraq, that President Barack Obama announced on August 7, 2014, included the first volley of airstrikes in the more-than-three-year counterterrorism campaign to defeat IS in Iraq and Syria. Important for the atrocity-prevention community, the airstrikes and deployment of Special Operations Forces (alongside humanitarian experts) to help coordinate the evacuation of civilians demonstrated an openness on the part of senior US policy makers to use counterterrorism capabilities to prevent a mass atrocity. In hindsight, however, US-led lethal action against IS fighters who threatened thousands of Yazidis trapped on Mount Sinjar was more the outcome of a unique set of circumstances than a harbinger of a more collaborative relationship between the counterterrorism community and policy makers focused on preventing atrocities committed by state actors, such as the governments of Syria, South Sudan, and Myanmar, and nonstate actors, including militia groups with little to no connection with international terrorist networks. With terrorist groups such as IS, Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, and al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa almost certain to continue atrocities against local populations in areas in which they operate, a fundamental question for policy makers arises. Did the extreme circumstances under which the United States and its partners decided to intervene on Mount Sinjar necessarily represent a threshold for action, or can a more normalized relationship between the atrocityprevention and counterterrorism communities be advanced—a relationship that would seek to leverage counterterrorism tools and resources to take decisive action to protect non-US citizens from atrocities while improving measures to avoid civilian casualties, including civilians killed during actions taken by US counterterrorism partners? Drawing from interviews with nearly 40 former and current US policy makers and outside experts1 , as well as a convening of 20 experts at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in June 2017, this paper explains the increasing relevance of the counterterrorism–atrocityprevention nexus and defines some of the significant challenges of closer collaboration between those communities, with a specific focus on preventing imminent atrocities. Defining when (including clearly articulated criteria for what constitutes “imminent” in this scenario), how, and under whose authority to use force to prevent atrocities against civilians is only one element of broadening a counterterrorism strategy that also includes diplomacy and countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts. 2 This paper is narrowly focused on the use of force and argues that in some circumstances, the atrocity-prevention agenda can be advanced by using counterterrorism tools—including lethal strikes—to prevent imminent atrocities against civilians in areas where terrorist groups operate.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Civilians, Atrocity Prevention, and Protection
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

226. GUNS VS. BUTTER: INSURGENT SERVICE PROVISION IN THE LAKE CHAD BASIN

Author:
Gray Barrett and Patrick Pierson
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
As the influence of ISIS wanes in the Middle East, many experts are looking towards Africa as the next battleground in the global fight against jihadist extremism. The call for enhanced counterterrorism efforts across the continent has been echoed by both African heads of state and foreign officials, including US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and French President Emmanuel Macron. And while ratcheting up the scale and sophistication of military efforts is needed, simply scaling up the number of guns and fighters in the region is not enough. Here’s why. In many respects, the staying power of ISIS in Iraq and Syria—while it lasted—was not based on overwhelming military power. Instead, the group exploited citizens’ longstanding grievances against their respective governments, instituting their own version of law and order that often surpassed that of the state. Even among individuals that opposed ISIS’s ideology, the group resonated due to its (comparably) more effective and efficient governance – in the words of one Syrian man in ISIS-controlled territory, “…its (ISIS) courts are fairer than the regime courts, and the judges are not influenced by favoritism or bribery.” The implementation of judicial services was part of a larger governance project that included humanitarian services, education, infrastructure improvements, policing of petty crime…even running bread factories to help subsidize food provision to its constituents. In short, efforts to establish a state require more than just recruiting fighters and sourcing weapons. ISIS recognized this, exploited it, and—as a result—was able to institute a ‘state’ that proved particularly difficult to uproot and displace.
Topic:
Insurgency, Armed Forces, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Lake Chad Basin

227. The Shia armed groups and the future of Iraq

Author:
Kardo Karim Rached and Ahmed Omar Bali
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
In this article, we try to identify the impact of the Shia militias in Iraq on the future of this country. We maintain that these armed groups will be a destabilising factor for Iraq and its neighbours, and they will worsen and deepen the sectarian division in the Middle East. We assess these different groups from different perspectives, for example, using the Weberian theory that the state is the only entity that has a monopoly of violence, Ariel Ahram’s model of state-sponsored and government-sponsored militias, and finally the devolution of violence to these armed groups.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Sectarianism, Armed Forces, Islamic State, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

228. The Politics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Author:
Marc Lynch, Maha Yahya, Frances Brown, Steven Heydemann, Jacqueline Parry, Dylan O'Driscoll, Caroline Abadeer, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, Deen Sharp, Frederic M. Wehrey, Peter Salisbury, Sune Haugbolle, Pietro Stefanini, and Reyko Huang
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Reconstruction following the devastating wars and state failure which followed the Arab uprisings of 2011 has become an increasingly pressing issue. In Iraq, the liberation of territories from the Islamic State came at great human and infrastructural cost. In Syria, the reconquest of territories by the regime of Bashar al-Asad has been accompanied by international discussions of modest steps towards reconstruction, after a war which generated more the half of the world’s refugees and internally displaced whilst sowing devastation across much of the country. Yemen has endured the near complete destruction of its infrastructure and economy, leaving much of the population at risk of starvation and disease. Libya is devastated by its multiple conflicts and the successive disintegration of what is left of its institutional structures. While none of these wars has yet fully ended, international and expert attention is increasingly focused on the impending challenges of reconstruction, repatriation and reconciliation. It is difficult to exaggerate the extent of the destruction which these wars have left behind. These wars have unfolded across multiple levels. Millions of people have been dispossessed from their homes, driven into exile at home or abroad. Infrastructure has been devastated, with many cities and towns utterly destroyed. National economies have evolved into local war economies. State and local institutions have been fundamentally reshaped. Communal polarization around sectarian or political identities has progressed to extreme levels. Entire communities have been severely impoverished as health and educational attainments plummet. And the individual trauma suffered by tens of millions of people afflicted by conflict and violence will have enduring psychological and developmental effects.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, War, Reconstruction, Authoritarianism, Islamic State, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Protests, Memory, Negotiation, Peace, and Police
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Gaza, Algeria, Lebanon, and Syria

229. Beyond the triggers: new threats of violent extremism in Kosovo

Author:
Skender Perteshi
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The aim of this report is to identify the new trends and threats of terrorism and violent extremism in Kosovo in the aftermath of IS defeat. The challenges identified in the report are instances of domestic terrorism, lone wolf terrorists,11 vulnerable communities, reintegration of the returned former fighters and their families.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, and Repatriation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

230. Is Terrorism Becoming an Effective Strategy to Achieve Political Aims?

Author:
Nihat Ali Özcan
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Terrorism is the method of changing policies of decision-makers and behaviors of the wider society by instigating fear through violent acts. Terrorism can be categorized based on several criteria, such as political aim, timing, context and the target of the violent acts, as well as tools and tactics. Although terrorism might sometimes show aspects similar to other types of conflict, such as guerilla warfare, urban warfare, irregular warfare, civil war, and insurgency, it is different from them by its reliance on shock in instigating change. Nevertheless, since 9/11 the nature of terrorism has itself changed to some extent. Rather than focusing on symbolic power, the emphasis for terrorist organizations has shifted from the action’s symbolic meaning to more calculable consequences, like the territory gained, weapons accrued, the financial damage inflicted and most commonly the number of the dead and the injured. In the future, we may also see shift towards more knowledge-intense strategies as both terrorists and states adapt to current age of knowledge.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Drones, Islamic State, Separatism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Global Focus