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61. New Producer Contract Terms and Uncertainty: Lessons From the Recent Past

Author:
Patrick Heller, Perrine Toledano, David Mihalyi, and Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The petroleum industry is volatile, and governments in “new producer” countries have operated at a significant information disadvantage when negotiating with international oil companies. This challenge is growing today; new producer countries face intensifying questions around whether to offer fiscal incentives to maintain investment in the face of 1) the pandemic-induced volatility in oil prices and 2) long-term questions about the future of the industry in the face of the climate crisis and the global energy transition. This confluence of short-term and long-term uncertainty is prompting a reexamination of the narrative that once took hold in many new producer countries. The traditional story was one of linear progression from being non-producers to small levels of production to ultimately having oil and gas become a major economic contributor over the long term. This notion of progression was associated with a commonly held theory: After a country’s first major discovery, the geological risk that wells will be dry was expected to decrease. Countries could therefore shift from a position of having to grant tax breaks (and other concessions) to international investors, to taking a tougher stance in laws and negotiations for new projects going forward. In this paper we examine whether this theory has been borne out in practice and make recommendations to support new producers in their navigation of the uncertainty associated with the energy transition. Among the eight “new producer” countries, for which we analyzed a total of 26 contracts signed before and 25 contracts signed after discovery events (all occurring between 2001 and 2014), the evidence is mixed.
Topic:
Gas, Transparency, Contracts, Monitoring, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. No Time to Waste: Governing Cobalt Amid the Energy Transition

Author:
David Manley, Patrick Heller, and William Davis
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Cobalt is critical. Along with other critical minerals, cobalt has important economic uses and currently few viable substitutes, yet its supply faces a high risk of disruption. Manufacturers of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) want the metal. EV sales—and likewise, cobalt demand— could grow a lot more. Yet, cobalt may not remain critical for decades to come. EV buyers, battery manufacturers and miners fear the high prices and disrupted supply, as well as human right abuses, environmental destruction, corruption, and political risk. As with other critical minerals, industries are seeking to use less of the metal. The time available for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and other countries to benefit from mining the metal may be short-lived. Good governance is therefore important both for people in mining countries and for humanity to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. This report aims to help governments and their advisors in mining countries, such as the DRC, derive value from mining cobalt, develop industry along the battery-supply chains and address a host of problems from human rights abuses to corruption. The report is also for policy-makers working to ensure that the world delivers enough cobalt in time for the global energy transition.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Energy, Green Transition, and Cobalt
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

63. Triple Win: How Mining Can Benefit Africa’s Citizens, Their Environment and the Energy Transition

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, David Manley, Silas Olan'g, and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Africa’s mineral wealth is essential for the energy transition and for the hundreds of millions of people currently living in poverty in African mining countries. Whether and how governments and companies move to further extract this mineral wealth is not only economically and environmentally important for Africa, but also for the vital importance of protecting the world’s rapidly diminishing forests. The world therefore needs a mining triple win: policies that can benefit Africa’s citizens, their environment, and the energy transition. These policies need to work for all if they are to work for any of them. But mining in Africa has been riddled with injustice. Humanity cannot afford to repeat the mistakes that have beset Africa’s mining in the past. To achieve a triple win, this time must be different. There are a whole host of policies available, and many ideas from experts. NRGI has brought these together and considered how they may work to truly achieve a triple win.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Mining, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa

64. Prospects for Mexico’s Lithium Sector After Reforms to the Mining Law

Author:
Fernanda Ballesteros
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The Mining Law reform establishes that lithium exploration, mining and use are activities for which the state is responsible, without the option to grant concessions, based on the argument that they are activities in the public interest. The Mining Law reform leads to the existence of a dual legal system for lithium. On the one hand, the concessions already granted are regulated and monitored by the Ministry of the Economy. On the other hand, exploration and mining that takes place after the reform will be carried out by the state through a state-owned company. The objectives and responsibilities of the state within this dual system are unclear. For the mining and processing of lithium to be an opportunity that translates into benefits for Mexican people, clear, consistent and credible policies are needed. There are challenges in terms of governance, both for the special system created and the general concessions system. At NRGI, we have identified three aspects of governance we believe require analysis: (1) failures in governance of the general system; (2) governance of state-owned companies; and (3) supply chains and value generation.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Reform, Mining, Lithium, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

65. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:
Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

67. Could the EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean Turn Climate Change from a “Threat Multiplier” into an “Opportunities Multiplier”?

Author:
Desirée A.L Quagliarotti
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean countries are char­acterised by evident gaps in terms of demographic growth, socioeconomic conditions and natural resources avail­ability, which undermine the process of Euro-Mediterranean cohesion and cre­ate a situation of structural weakness that makes them extremely vulnerable to destabilising events. In just over a dec­ade, the Mediterranean region has been affected by major changes that, at first glance, do not seem to be related to each other. The wave of pro-democracy pro­tests called the “Arab Spring” that has plagued the regimes of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since 2010 has shown how climate-driven crop failures in major food exporting countries may contribute to driving up international food prices and to amplifying social and polit­ical destabilisation, especially in food-im­port dependent countries (Werrell & Femia, 2013). The “Arab unhappiness” that spurred the popular uprisings has not faded over the years, giving rise to what has been referred to as the “Arab Spring 2.0”. This new round of turmoil, in which protesters demand a better quality of life, has been exacerbated by 2020s COVID-19 pandemic, clearly demon­strating, once again, the close inter­connection between human well-being and planetary health.[1] In the same time frame, in the Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs), the migrant-refugee crisis, characterised by new migration waves triggered by traditional as well as unconventional push factors linked to the effects of climate and environmental changes, is becoming one of the most important and divisive issues in recent European politics, adding a new layer of instability to the already shaky European Union (EU) (Pawel & Roland, 2018).
Topic:
Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

68. Hydrogen and Energy Transition: Opportunities for Brazil

Author:
Rafaela Guedes, Gregório Cruz Araújo Maciel, and André Bello
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
Hydrogen has an important versatility in the context of energy transition. It can be used directly as a low or zero-carbon energy source in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize or in energy storage, enabling a larger share of intermittent renewables, such as wind and solar power. In 2021, the Royal General Consulate of Norway in Rio de Janeiro and CEBRI promoted a discussion on the perspectives, technical challenges and economic feasibility of hydrogen production projects, as well as alternative national development strategies for this technology and its potential advantages for Brazil. Panelists from several companies involved in the sector (DNV, NEL Hydrogen, Air Products, Hyrton), as well as Giovani Machado, Director for Energy Economics and Environmental Studies at EPE, Mariane Fosland,General Consul of Norway, and CEBRI Trustee, Winston Fritsch, participated in the panel.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Hydrogen, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Norway, Brazil, and South America

69. Energy in a World in Transition: Challenges, Opportunities and Perspectives

Author:
Jorge Camargo, Pedro Malan, Winston Fritsch, Clarissa Lins, and Alessandra Amaral
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The Energy Transition process is complex and multifaceted, with substantial impacts on the energy industries’ business models. In order to contribute with a greater understanding of this trend, CEBRI, in partnership with BMA, organized a collection of articles that analyzes the main implications of this process, which is well positioned to be one of the major drivers of economic transformation in this historic period. Published in English and Portuguese, the collection is structured around the theme “Energy in a World in Transition”, and assesses a global process from a Brazilian perspective. The first edition, published in June, included important reflections on the future of Brazilian energy.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Industry, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

70. Re-securitizing climate: From ‘climate security’ to ‘ecology of peace’?

Author:
Emma Hakala and Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
One implication of the war in Ukraine is that collective solutions to climate security will be ever more difficult to forge. Earlier hopes for cooperation were focused on the ‘securitization’ of climate change – that is, presenting it as an issue for security policy. The expectation was that the security implications of climate change would be recognized as a shared threat and dealt with through multilateral cooperation under UN leadership. The securitization of climate change took place at the same time as a decline in liberalism and multilateralism in international politics. The rise of conflictual and disintegrative tendencies in international relations creates a dangerous geopolitical context for climate change. Climate security is part of great-power politics. Recognizing this requires a deep rethinking of how cooperation can be achieved if this issue cannot be decoupled from geopolitical gridlocks. Climate and environment issues should be ‘re-securitized’, for example, by further embedding them into the few existing multilateral regimes, such as the Paris Agreement and the UN Convention on Biodiversity.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus