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351. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?

Author:
Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

352. Global commons: between cooperation and competition

Author:
Gerald Stang
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Rapid economic development and increasing international trade are leading to a more crowded international stage and raising new challenges in the 'global commons' – those domains that are not under the control or jurisdiction of any state but are open for use by countries, companies and individuals from around the world. Their management involves increasingly complex processes to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of states, international organisations and a host of non-state actors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

353. Internet Governance: Inevitable Transitions

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The current approach to Internet governance is politically untenable because it lacks legitimacy in the eyes of many new Internet users. Legitimacy is a central issue for Internet governance.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

354. Adaptive Internet Governance: Persuading the Swing States

Author:
Dave Clemente
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The complexity of negotiating global Internet governance in the coming years presents states with multiple challenges. One primary challenge for liberal democracies is to adapt their current approach (that is, the multi-stakeholder model) while enhancing its legitimacy on the international stage. A model of governance that is perceived as legitimate and capable of maintaining a stable environment is more likely to be durable, as opposed to one that lacks the ability to adapt, thereby encouraging other actors to develop competing models.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Governance

355. Size and Influence - How small states influence policy making in multilateral arenas

Author:
Maria Nilaus Tarp and Jens Ole Bach Hansen
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In an increasingly interconnected world multilateral cooperation becomes more important as countries are forced to work together to address new global challenges. Traditionally, multilateral fora have provided a stage for small countries to exercise influence and act internationally. The authors argue that small countries have a set of assets at their disposal compared to larger countries that give them a comparative advantage in a multilateral world order. To make that argument, the paper highlights a number of examples based on the authors' first-hand experience from the Danish Foreign Service and the United Nations and summarises the toolbox of small countries that seek to pursue political influence in multilateral organizations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United Nations

356. U.S., China and Thucydides

Author:
Robert B. Zoellick
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The National Interest
Abstract:
LAST YEAR, during his visit to the United States, Chinese president Xi Jinping introduced the idea of a “new type of great-power relationship.” In March of this year, in apparent response, President Obama's national-security adviser, Tom Donilon, suggested an interest in building “a new model of relations between an existing power and an emerging one.” This June, the two presidents met in California to explore whether their strategic outlooks can be reconciled. I suspect that President Xi's concept reflects the senior leadership's study of history. At last year's meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, former president Hu Jintao stated, “We should prove that the traditional belief that big powers are bound to enter into conflict is wrong, and [instead] seek new ways of developing relations between major countries in the era of economic globalization.” In the United States, professors Graham Allison and Joseph Nye at Harvard have referred to this challenge as “the Thucydides trap”: in explaining the cause of the great Peloponnesian War of the fifth century BC, Thucydides pointed to the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta. In the centuries since, scholars have pondered how power shifts have led to competitive tensions, which sometimes have been managed and sometimes led to conflict. This essay will pose a question: What might be the substance of a new type of great-power relationship between China and the United States? Kevin Rudd, former prime minister and foreign minister of Australia, has also taken up this topic in a series of thoughtful speeches. His approach points to the need for reinforcing dialogues and cooperative efforts.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and China

357. Military Leaders and Global Leaders: Contrasts, Contradictions, and Opportunities

Author:
Anthony J. DiBella
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Leadership has long been a focal point of human curiosity but has recently gathered even more attention. As globalization becomes increasingly the dominant force in political, social, and economic affairs, leaders far and wide are being called upon to take on new roles and address emergent challenges. This trend may be most prominent in the arena of national security. In particular, military leaders must now interact with a broader range of social communities as engagements span national and cultural boundaries. While in the past, national militaries or their forces or branches acted alone, most of today's engagements involve coalitions, “partners”, or joint forces. How do the traditional traits and characteristics of military leaders align with this new environment? This paper will examine several traits or characteristics of military leaders, compare them to those of other global leaders, and suggest ways to prepare military leaders for global leadership roles that go beyond parochial interests.
Topic:
Globalization and War
Political Geography:
United States

358. A Dangerous Nexus: Crime, Conflict, and Terrorism in Failing States

Author:
Walter Kemp, Mara Pfneisl, and Maximilian Meduna
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
In his introductory remarks, IPI President Terje Rød-Larsen noted that when the United Nations was established after the Second World War, organized crime had almost nothing to do with international peace and security. It was a problem in a few big cities and isolated regions, but it was not a topic of international relations. In the 1980s, the situation began to change. The collapse of Communism opened new markets, and criminals began to take advantage of instability in conflict zones and fragile states. Globalization created new opportunities for illicit activities to flourish thanks to new technologies, new markets, and greater openness. Increases in trade, financial transactions, and communications made it easier for criminals to do business around the world and to launder money. Criminal groups also exploited unstable regions. As a result, by the beginning of the twenty-first century, organized crime had gone global, reaching macroeconomic proportions and posing a threat to international peace and security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Globalization, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
United Nations

359. Trading Up: The Case for an International Carbon Market Reserve to Reduce Volatility at the Limits in 2020 and Beyond

Author:
Nigel Purvis, Abigail Jones, and Cecilia Springer
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Climate policymakers face major challenges when designing future global carbon markets—those involving carbon transactions between “buyers” (predominantly developed countries to date) and “sellers” (mainly developing countries, particularly least developed nations). On one hand, domestic carbon markets are currently spreading and linking rapidly around the world. By 2015, based on already announced policies, carbon markets will cover almost 3 billion people and the lion's share of the world's economy. Because carbon markets, and carbon pricing instruments in general, present the most flexible mechanism to create low-carbon economies, carbon markets are likely to play a major role in future efforts to confront climate change—perhaps on the order of shouldering 50 percent of the solution.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, Oil, and Natural Resources

360. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Canada